Commodity Prices Shocks and the Balance Sheet Effect in Latin America

Emerging market economies(EMEs), particularly the commodity exporterones,are ex- posed to world’s dynamics through different channels. In this paper,we consider the role of (exogenous) commodity prices shocks in explaining business cycles in EMEs,by proposing a financial transmission mechanism: the balance sheet effect. Our hypothesis is that a nega- tive commodity price shock increases the firm’s external debt and the cost of the new debt. In consequence,the aggregate investment decreases amplifying the output contraction.To test it,we estimate a series of VAR models using quarterly data on corporate external debt, nominal exchange rate, EMBI+ spreads, the local currency value of external debt to nomi- nal GDP ratio and real GDP,covering the period 2000-2017. We do this for Latin America and then, we focus on five particular economies: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru. We find that balance sheets do matter and they exacerbate the output’s contraction when the commodity price shock is negative. We also find that, turning the financial channel off, the real GDP cumulative response in Latin America is smaller than in the unrestricted model. Finally, we find no evidence on the existence of the balance sheet effect for Chile

Absolute Income Inequality and Rising House Prices

Income inequality and house prices have risen sharply in developed countries during the last three decades. We argue that this co-movement is no coincidence but that inequality has driven up house prices on the grounds that it raises the total demand for houses, which inflates their prices considering supply restrictions. To test this hypothesis, we conduct cointegration tests for a panel of 18 OECD countries for the period 1975-2010. The results suggest that income inequality and house prices in most OECD countries are positively correlated and cointegrated, and that in the majority of cases absolute inequality Granger-causes house prices when measured in absolute terms. Relative inequality, on the other hand, is not cointegrated with house prices, which is expected given that total house demand depends on the absolute amount of investible income

Noncommutativity in Effective Loop Quantum Cosmology

We construct a noncommutative extension of the Loop Quantum Cosmology effective scheme for the open FLRW model with a free scalar field via a theta deformation. Firstly, a deformation is implemented in the configuration sector, among the holonomy variable and the matter degree of freedom. We show that this type of noncommutativity retain, to some degree, key features of the Loop Quantum Cosmology paradigm for a free field. Secondly, a deformation is implemented in the momentum sector, among the momentum associated to the holonomy variable and the momentum associated to the matter field. We show that in this latter case the scalar field energy density is bounded and has the same maximum as in standard Loop Quantum Cosmology, signaling a higher degree of compatibility

La dinámica de los flujos de capital hacia América Latina y los países en desarrollo, 1970-2002

RESUMEN: Los flujos de capital durante las últimas tres décadas han adquirido importancia paulatina en el escenario internacional, especialmente para las economías en desarrollo. Su dinámica cada vez es más importante para explicar el comportamiento macroeconómico de estas, toda vez que permiten potenciar el crecimiento económico, aunque, simultáneamente, pueden ocasionar desequilibrios macroeconómicos importantes en las economías receptoras. El objetivo del presente trabajo es evaluar el comportamiento de los flujos de capital hacia los países en desarrollo, haciendo énfasis en las economías de América Latina. Los resultados señalan cuatro características de los flujos: un comportamiento cíclico durante el período de estudio, caracterizado por dos fases de auge y dos de contracción; un aumento en la entrada de recursos durante la última década, tanto en términos relativos como absolutos; un cambio en su composición a favor de los flujos privados y una tendencia hacia su concentración en las economías de mayores ingresos.ABSTRACT: The flows of capital during last the three decades have acquired gradual importance in the international scene, specially for the developing economies. Its dynamics every time is more important to explain the macroeconomic behavior of these, every time they allow to harness the economic growth, although, simultaneously, can cause important macroeconomic imbalances in the receiving economies. The objective of the present paper is to evaluate the behavior of the capital flows towards the developing countries, making emphasis in the economies of Latin America. The results indicate four characteristics of the flows: A cyclical behavior during the period of study, characterized by two phases of height and two of contraction; an increase in the entrance of resources during the last decade, as much in relative terms as absolute; a change in its composition in favor of the private flows and a tendency towards its concentration in the economies of greater income

Eficacia del ganciclovir tópico como alternativa terapéutica de la queratitis epitelial herpética

ResumenObjetivoComparar el uso del ganciclovir con el del aciclovir, usados de forma tópica, para la curación de la queratitis epitelial herpética en menos de 7 días.Materiales y métodosSe diseñó un ensayo clínico aleatorizado comparativo de pacientes con queratitis epitelial herpética del Centro de Oftalmología de la Fundación Santos y de la Garza Evia. Se establecieron 2 grupos de tratamiento: gel de ganciclovir 0.15% y ungüento de aciclovir 3%; aplicados 5 veces al día hasta el cierre de la dendrita y después 3 veces al día durante 3 días más. Se evaluó diariamente a los pacientes hasta el cierre de la úlcera y se aplicó un cuestionario de síntomas con una escala validada.ResultadosSe reclutaron 23 pacientes: 13 tratados con ganciclovir (56.5%) y 10 (43.4%) con aciclovir (p=0.94); la edad promedio fue de 47.69 años (DE±18.6) para el primer grupo y de 56.8 años (DE±9.6) para el segundo (p=0.17). El tamaño de la úlcera inicial fue similar en ambos grupos: 2.3mm (±1.85) en aciclovir y 3.0mm (±0.94) en ganciclovir. En el primer día la mediana del tamaño de la úlcera en aciclovir fue de 1.5mm (RIC=1.8) y en ganciclovir 1mm (RIC=1.9) (p=0.257), lo cual no muestra una diferencia clínicamente significativa. Al día 7, la úlcera había cerrado a 0mm (RIC=0) en todos los casos de ganciclovir comparado con 1mm promedio en el grupo de aciclovir (RIC=1.7) (p=0.000).ConclusionesEl ganciclovir demostró una curación de la queratitis epitelial en menos de 7 días, comparado con aciclovir.AbstractObjectiveTo compare the healing rate in less than 7 days with the use of ganciclovir or acyclovir in patients with epithelial herpetic keratitis.Materials and methodsWe designed a randomized clinical trial including patients with epithelial herpetic keratitis seen at Centro de Oftalmología de la Fundación Santos y de la Garza Evia. There were 2 treatment groups: 0.15% ganciclovir gel and acyclovir 3% ointment, applied 5 times a day until the dendrite closed, and then 3 times a day for 3 days. We evaluated patients daily until the ulcer healed. A validated symptom scale was provided in each visit.ResultsWe recruited 23 patients: 13 treated with ganciclovir (56.5%) and 10 (43.4%) with acyclovir (P=.94), the mean age was 47.69 years (SD±18.6) for the first group, and 56.8 years (SD±9.6) for the second (P=.17). The initial ulcer size was similar in both groups: 2.3mm (±1.85) in acyclovir and 3.0mm (±0.94) in ganciclovir. On the first day the median ulcer size was 1.5mm acyclovir (IQR=1.8) and ganciclovir 1mm (IQR=1.9) (P=0.257), which does not show a clinically significant difference. At day 7, the ulcer had closed to 0mm (IQR=0) in all cases of ganciclovir compared with acyclovir 1mm (IQR=1.7) (P=.000).ConclusionsThe healing rate of ganciclovir in less than 7 days for EK was superior compared with acyclovir

Sectoral real exchange rates and manufacturing exports: A case study of Latin America

Standard theory considers the real exchange rate (RER) as an export determinant. A common limitation of cross-country evidence is the use of effective (REER) or bilateral (BRER) RER indices, both of which have the same values across sectors. The novel contributions of this paper are to propose a variety of goods trade model, to exploit exchange rate variations across sectors by constructing a unique sectoral bilateral RER index (SBRER) for 12 Latin American countries, 21 sectors and 38 trade partners, and to estimate empirically the effect of SBRER movements on Latin American manufacturing exports during 2001-2018. The obtained results show that the SBRER is a statistically significant determinant of aggregate manufacturing exports, whereas the REER coefficient has an unexpected sign and the BRER appears not to be significant. Moreover, sectoral export elasticities indicate that in Latin America mainly low-technology sectors are affected by SBRER movements. Overall, these findings make evident that it is important to consider sectoral heterogeneity regarding trade partners and production costs when estimating RER export elasticities from a macroeconomic perspective and they provide new evidence on the effect of RER movements on Latin American exports

Unconventional Monetary Policy and Inflation in the U.S.: How Much Inflation was Missing?

The U.S. inflation rate for the period 2008-2016 was abnormally low despite the execution of a high expansive monetary policy, which has been called “the missing inflation paradox”. In this paper we estimate the missing inflation as the difference between the inflation predicted, and the observed rate using two monetarist models. The results support the adequacy of this approach to explain the inflation during 1970-2005. However, after that, the estimated missing inflation was around 3.5%-3.9% annually on average. Interestingly, this phenomenon apparently starts in 2006, previous to the beginning of the Great Recession. Although we do not present a formal explanation, the models used allow us to suspect the existence of an unusually high (and transitory) increase in the demand for real money balances

White dwarf constraints on a varying GG

A secular variation of $G$ modifies the structure and evolutionary time scales of white dwarfs. Using an state-of-the-art stellar evolutionary code, an up-to-date pulsational code, and a detailed population synthesis code we demonstrate that the effects of a running $G$ are obvious both in the properties of individual white dwarfs, and in those of the white dwarf populations in clusters. Specifically, we show that the white dwarf evolutionary sequences depend on both the value of $\dot G/G$, and on the value of $G$ when the white dwarf was born. We show as well that the pulsational properties of variable white dwarfs can be used to constrain $\dot G/G$. Finally, we also show that the ensemble properties of of white dwarfs in clusters can also be used to set upper bounds to $\dot G/G$. Precisely, the tightest bound --- $\dot G/G \sim -1.8 10^{-12}$ yr$^{-1}$ --- is obtained studying the population of the old, metal-rich, well populated, open cluster NGC 6791. Less stringent upper limits can be obtained comparing the theoretical results obtained taking into account the effects of a running $G$ with the measured rates of change of the periods of two well studied pulsating white dwarfs, G117--B15A and R548. Using these white dwarfs we obtain $\dot G/G\sim -1.8\times 10^{-10}$ yr$^{-1}$, and $\dot G/G\sim -1.3\times 10^{-10}$ yr$^{-1}$, respectively, which although less restrictive than the previous bound, can be improved measuring the rate of change of the period of massive white dwarfs.Comment: 6 pages, 3 figures. To be published in the proceedings of the conference "Varying fundamental constants and dynamical dark energy" (8 - 13 July 2013, Sexten Center for Astrophysics

On the origin of white dwarfs with carbon-dominated atmospheres: The case of H1504+65

Aims. We explore different evolutionary scenarios to explain the helium, deficiency observed, in H1504+65, the most massive known PG1159 star. Methods. We concentrate mainly on the possibility that this star could be the result of mass loss shortly after its born-again and during its subsequent evolution through the [WCL] stage. This possibility is consistent with observational evidence of extensive mass-loss events in Sakurai's object and is in line with the finding that these mass losses give rise to PG1159 models with thin heliumrich envelopes and high rates of period change, as demanded by the pulsating star PG1159-035. We compute the post-born-again evolution of massive sequences by taking into account different mass-loss rate histories. Results. Our results show that stationary winds during the post-born-again evolution fail to remove completely the helium-rich envelope and are therefore unable to explain the helium deficiency observed, in H1504+65. Stationary winds during the Sakurai and [WCL] stages remove at most half of the envelope that survives the violent hydrogen burning during the born-again phase. Conclusions. In view of our results, the proposed evolutionary sequence of born-again stars to H.1504+65 and then to white dwarfs with carbon-rich atmospheres is difficult to reproduce unless the entire helium-rich envelope is ejected by non-stationary mass-loss episodes during the Sakurai stage.Facultad de Ciencias Astronómicas y GeofísicasInstituto de Astrofísica de La Plat