Risky decision making : testing for violations of transitivity predicted by an editing mechanism

Transitivity is the assumption that if a person prefers A to B and B to C, then that person should prefer A to C. This article explores a paradigm in which Birnbaum, Patton and Lott (1999) thought people might be systematically intransitive. Many undergraduates choose C = ($96, .85;$90, .05; $12, .10) over A = ($96, .9; $14, .05;$12, .05), violating dominance. Perhaps people would detect dominance in simpler choices, such as A versus B = ($96, .9;$12, .10) and B versus C, and yet continue to violate it in the choice between A and C, which would violate transitivity. In this study we apply a true and error model to test intransitive preferences predicted by a partially effective editing mechanism. The results replicated previous findings quite well; however, the true and error model indicated that very few, if any, participants exhibited true intransitive preferences. In addition, violations of stochastic dominance showed a strong and systematic decrease in prevalence over time and viola

May Measurement Month 2017: an analysis of blood pressure screening in the Philippines-South-East Asia and Australasia

Cardiovascular diseases remain the Philippines' leading cause of mortality, with hypertension as a prevalent contributory risk factor. We took part in May Measurement Month 2017 (MMM17), a global initiative to raise awareness of high blood pressure (BP) and to serve as a temporary solution to the lack of screening programs worldwide. Following the standard MMM protocol, data for 271 604 screened individuals were submitted from the Philippines. After multiple imputation, 91 994 (34.3%) were hypertensive; 28 662 out of 205 158 participants (14.0%) not receiving treatment had hypertension; and of the 60 370 receiving treatment, 25 144 (41.6%) had uncontrolled BP. Blood pressures were significantly higher in the overweight and obese, current smokers, in participants receiving antihypertensive medication, those with previous myocardial infarction or stroke. The BP measurements were relatively lower when taken on the left arm, and in pregnant women. A slightly higher systolic BP was noted in participants who reported no alcohol intake. Blood pressures recorded during the weekends were highest, and the lowest readings were obtained on Tuesdays. MMM17 was the largest BP screening campaign conducted in the Philippines. Opportunistic BP screening, harnessing volunteers, are a cost-effective public health measure to improve awareness and treatment rates of raised BP. These may help provide additional information that can guide medical practitioners and health officials in drafting preventive and therapeutic measures to improve control rates and long-term outcomes of hypertensive individuals in the population

Overview of the TCV tokamak experimental programme

The tokamak a configuration variable (TCV) continues to leverage its unique shaping capabilities, flexible heating systems and modern control system to address critical issues in preparation for ITER and a fusion power plant. For the 2019-20 campaign its configurational flexibility has been enhanced with the installation of removable divertor gas baffles, its diagnostic capabilities with an extensive set of upgrades and its heating systems with new dual frequency gyrotrons. The gas baffles reduce coupling between the divertor and the main chamber and allow for detailed investigations on the role of fuelling in general and, together with upgraded boundary diagnostics, test divertor and edge models in particular. The increased heating capabilities broaden the operational regime to include T (e)/T (i) similar to 1 and have stimulated refocussing studies from L-mode to H-mode across a range of research topics. ITER baseline parameters were reached in type-I ELMy H-modes and alternative regimes with \u27small\u27 (or no) ELMs explored. Most prominently, negative triangularity was investigated in detail and confirmed as an attractive scenario with H-mode level core confinement but an L-mode edge. Emphasis was also placed on control, where an increased number of observers, actuators and control solutions became available and are now integrated into a generic control framework as will be needed in future devices. The quantity and quality of results of the 2019-20 TCV campaign are a testament to its successful integration within the European research effort alongside a vibrant domestic programme and international collaborations

The choice for EU theorists: Establishing a common framework for analysis

European Union (EU) studies have entered a highly contentious and, arguably, creative phase. A range of theoretical perspectives, seemingly quite highly differentiated from one another, now compete for influence and lsquospacersquo. However, the questions remain: is EU studies developing theories which are truly competing theories? Or is it developing theories that do not compete so much as they aim to explain distinctly different pieces of the EU puzzle? This paper responds directly to these two questions, while reviewing recent literature on EU governance. It argues, first, that we lack theories of EU governance that are true rivals; and, second, that leading models explain different outcomes at different levels in a multi-level system of governance. The result is somewhat phoney debates between compatible theories masquerading as rivals, and between lsquocomparative politicsrsquo and lsquointernational relationsrsquo approaches. Above all, perhaps, we find middle range theories posing as general or lsquometa-theoriesrsquo. In the absence of a plausible general theory of EU governance, theorists must choose precisely which type of outcome theywish to explain

TEMAP2.R: True and Error model analysis program in R

True and Error Theory (TET) provides a method to separate the variability of behavior into components due to changing true policy and to random error. TET is a testable theory that can serve as a statistical model, allowing one to evaluate substantive theories as nested, special cases. TET is more accurate descriptively and has theoretical advantages over previous approaches. This paper presents a freely available computer program in R that can be used to fit and evaluate both TET and substantive theories that are special cases of it. The program performs Monte Carlo simulations to generate distributions of test statistics and bootstrapping to provide confidence intervals on parameter estimates. Use of the program is illustrated by a reanalysis of previously published data testing whether what appeared to be violations of Expected Utility (EU) theory (Allais paradoxes) by previous methods might actually be consistent with EU theory

Surprisingly Robust Violations of Stochastic Dominance Despite Coalescing Training

Repository for the project "Surprisingly Robust Violations of Stochastic Dominance Despite Training - A Quasi-Adversarial Collaboratio

Introducing an economic agricultural water distribution in a hyper-arid region: A case study in Iran

Operational management of agricultural water based on an economic perspective was investigated as a sustainable approach in water shortage periods. Accordingly, an automatic water distribution system was coupled with the Positive Mathematical Programming economic model for a sustainable agricultural water operation in the Roodasht irrigation network, Iran. Operational management was carried out based on the economic value of water in each irrigated unit. According to the results, the existing operating system was able to supply 71 and 22% of farmers' water requirements under normal and water shortage conditions, respectively. However, employing the proposed automated operational-economic approach reduced water consumption by 14.3%, while maintaining the cultivation area by 11% and increasing farmers' net profit to 840,000 USD under water scarcity. The economic operation can reduce water losses, implement economic strategies in those districts without water marketing mechanisms, and provide sustainable management of limited water resources in hyper-arid regions.The Iran Water Resources Management Company 11-4960/360Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad ( España) DPI2017-86918-

Risky Decision making: Testing for violations of transitivity predicted by an editing mechanism

Transitivity is the assumption that if a person prefers A to B and B to C, then that person should prefer A to C. This article explores a paradigm in which Birnbaum, Patton and Lott (1999) thought people might be systematically intransitive. Many undergraduates choose C = ($96, .85;$90, .05; $12, .10) over A = ($96, .9; $14, .05;$12, .05), violating dominance. Perhaps people would detect dominance in simpler choices, such as A versus B = ($96, .9;$12, .10) and B versus C, and yet continue to violate it in the choice between A and C, which would violate transitivity. In this study we apply a true and error model to test intransitive preferences predicted by a partially effective editing mechanism. The results replicated previous findings quite well; however, the true and error model indicated that very few, if any, participants exhibited true intransitive preferences. In addition, violations of stochastic dominance showed a strong and systematic decrease in prevalence over time and violated response independence, thus violating key assumptions of standard random preference models for analysis of transitivity