An Integrated Assessment Frame as Science Policy Interface for Decisions on (Environment-Related) Risks - SCOPE - Report Phase 1

Classical risk assessment paradigms no longer suffice to deal with complex, uncertain and ambiguous risks. Therefore, new approaches to prevent, control, communicate, and deal with the causes of these risks and with public anxieties about risks are necessary. In phase 1 we analyzed the available concepts to integrate risk and economical assessment with social aspects in one framework, and discussed the relevant criteria that need to be considered in order to develop a final risk assessment framework. Furthermore, still in phase 1, empirical work was performed in the form of case studies to analyze and define a framework, or to select criteria. We are in the process of reviewing, selecting, and testing tools and instruments that can be used in this appraisal framework, to go from concepts to practice. To grasp the full complexity of controversial, uncertain and immature risks, to cope with different values and views, and to develop a good communication we consider the appraisal framework as a procedural decision making process. It requires a more participative approach as the legal rational approach does not deliver adequate public management tools for handling these issues. We propose a sequential model, going through a series of steps, that can be used both in cases of strategic planning and management, and in the management of local projects usually related to siting conflicts. In each phase of the model integrated assessment tools and methods can be applied up to the point where consensus or a clear representation of different values and views (ideal in very uncertain and ambiguous problems), or an optimal balance between different criteria (in more simple cases) is achieved. All together our Appraisal Framework [is shaped] as a process, structuring and supporting the decision-making process. • To promote and organize a mutual learning of all actors entering into the policy cycle spiralling up through the different phases. • In the context of local siting conflicts, local contamination issues and urban planning topics (all with very close relationships with individuals), including regional, global E&H issues (food, climate, air, transport…) It’s a policy cycle, focused around a certain problem, organised to formulate and evaluate policy options, with stakeholders involved at different phases and steps of the process. Here the AF is structured as a learning network composed of all the players entering into the decision-making process at different stages. The quality of the decision making process can be appreciated either on the basis of its outcomes or on the process itself. Our framing falls under the latter. It also rests on the procedural equity feeling and its impact on the acceptability of the effects of the decision (Joss S. and Brownlea A., 1999). Such an approach opens the way to a greater legitimacy of decisions whose substantive effects or outcomes are essentially dubious – a fortiori in the context of the precaution. It encourages a reflection on the manner of combining the opening of the decision-making process through participative methods with others meta-tools such as strategic management, integrated and comparative approach of the risk, or the evaluative method. These meta-tools structure the participative step, giving it objectives, precise questions and ad hoc means. It contributes to the technical quality of the decision and to its social acceptability, particularly when it is the product of a decision-making process which the actors consider precautionary and adapted to the context of great scientific uncertainty.Project SD/TA/10A : An Integrated Assessment Frame as Science Policy Interface for Decisions on (Environment-Related) Risks “SCoPE” SSD-Science for a Sustainable Development – Transversal Actions

The Environmental Burden of Disease due to transportation noise in Flanders (Belgium) 2004

Exposure to environmental noise due to rail, road and air traffic affects public health. Cardiovascular diseases, sleep disturbance and annoyance are the most-reported harmful effects of noise exposure in scientific literature. In this article, the transportation noise burden of disease in Flanders is quantified based on the disability adjusted life year methodology (DALY), combining the burden due to premature death and disability in a single index. The estimation relies on relevant health statistics, exposure-response relationships and the distribution of exposure. The estimated number of DALYs due to environmental noise in Flanders 2004 was 20 517, corresponding to 1.7% of the total burden of disease in Flanders or 21.8% of the total environmental burden of disease in Flanders due to particular matter, ozone, carcinogenic air pollutants (i.e. lead, ultra violet radiation, benzene, radon, nickel, arsenic and polyaromatic hydrocarbons) and noise. The results establish that traffic- related noise exposure has a large impact on public health. Nevertheless, the results must be interpreted carefully because of the rather large uncertainty range attributable to the variety in exposure level, the uncertainty in exposureresponse functions and the choice of severity weight.

Ten Years of Research and Policy on Particulate Matter Air Pollution in Hot Spot Flanders

Air pollution is a systemic risk embedded in environmental, political, social and economic systems. Risk assessments on air pollution therefore involve communication between several stakeholders at multiple scale levels. This study focuses on a small part of the risk assessment, evaluating actions or decisions on both policy and research fields using an importance-performance/feasibility analysis as a scoring methodology. Subsequently, results were discussed by researchers and policy makers at a closed workshop to guarantee a safe place for knowledge integration. Learned aspects and new insights are useful for future scenarios on air pollution. This study was performed in Flanders, the European hot spot for air particulate matter. After 10 years of policy efforts in Flanders, the daily air particulate matter PM10 standard, which was enforced by the European Commission (EC) in 1999, is still being exceeded more times than allowed. No exemption for not achieving this standard was granted by the EC. What went wrong on policy and research fields in Flanders and how can this situation be prevented in the future taking into account the new PM2.5 standard that will be implemented in 2015 (European Directive 2008/50/EC)? Results of the importance-performance/feasibility analysis on actions related to PM research and policy in Flanders and discussions at the workshop, improving the communication between researchers and governmental stakeholders, are looked at

Handling complex risks issues in the domain of environment and health - SCOPE

This research report has its origin in the notion that classical risk assessment paradigms no longer suffice to deal with complex, uncertain and ambiguous risks. Risk assessment was developed as a scientific tool to tackle uncertain consequences of human activities by organizing, evaluating, integrating and presenting scientific information to inform decision-making. Over the years, this type of risk assessment has proved effective in protecting public health and the environment from major environmental hazards with high relative risks. In the modern „risk society‟ classical risk assessment fails to handle complex risks characterized by radical uncertainty and a plurality of legitimate perspectives and values. Public authorities have to deal with issues/risks were facts are uncertain and values are contested. To answer to the increased demands of policymakers and the public for guidance on risk management new processes for the governance of these risks need to be developed. Weberian bureaucratic structures and forms of cooperation are working in a logic of specialisation of work, where distribution of information and knowledge, structures of decisions and allocation of responsibilities are organised ab initio in a stable organisational frame. Such a structure is not capable of resisting to the emergence of new risks which are often not identified as such at start and require a more integrative form of assessment, integrating inter-disciplinary collaboration on a specific policy problem that is complex, uncertain, perhaps unlimited in temporal and spatial scale, and interlinked with other phenomena. If the frame of reflexivity (Beck, 2003) is adopted, we thus have to recognise that a global mastering of these risks is not possible. What is now requested is the settlement of conditions for another type of open debate. Experiments in new forms of public participation in the management of technological developments (like e.g. citizen panels on long-term storage of nuclear waste1, or on cars and health2) already inspired the public administrators in their search for new procedural forms of decision making in areas of uncertainty. For a certain category of risks inclusion of the public, next to industrial stakeholders, organised environmental interest groups and governmental agencies and administrations is warranted, to integrate different opinions and values and to develop adequate policies. Network governance should be developed, where stakeholders are invited to speak up and where power structures are reconsidered and flattened. Here the authorities are recommended to exercise their capacities not as a centre of knowledge and top-down decision, but as a facilitator for communication and collaboration within networking structures, mobilising numerous experts and stakeholders, including the population itself (Gilbert, 2002), to develop new options which are socially acceptable and technically efficient (Fallon et al., 2008a & b). This requires a different mindset where the plurality of frames and fluidity of boundaries; the need for contextualisation; the construction of unstable temporary networks, the plurality of rationalities and the inherent uncertainties, social and technical (Callon, 1986) of the issues considered. As uncertainties are recognised, scientists are not anymore expected to close the controversy but rather to contribute to the technical quality of the process. The public decision-making process (DMP) should be designed to organise the conditions for an optimal tradeoff between scientific soundness and social acceptability of decisions, in a context where the precautionary principle is relevant. The key issue, framing or “structuring the research questions”, is a method for deciding how to manage scientific uncertainty. From literature review and past studies, we posit that a better quality DMP could be achieved by using tools for an integrated and comparative risk assessment and management. These approaches rely on interdisciplinary risk assessment – relevant soft and hard sciences are engaged together into the knowledge production process rather than mobilized side by side. Concretely, it involves designing the steps or sequences of the process and selecting/developing/adapting risk assessment and management tools. More specific, within the environment and health arena there is limited experience with these new concepts of integrated assessments (Briggs, 2008). Therefore case studies on various environment and health issues were performed to evaluate current integrated risk assessment practices, multi-level precautionary approaches and communication of complex risks. Different tools as Delphi, scenario workshop, etc. were used to analyse the issues at stake. The development of an integrated approach in risk assessment requires cooperation across policy domains and hierarchical structures. In the field of air pollution a science-policy workshop confirmed that in the domain of air quality policy, public servants communicate well with researchers from scientific institutions. The protagonists in Flemish air quality policy have a common scientific background and are technical experts. This observation puts into question a common discourse postulating that there is a „communication problem' or 'gap' between 'researchers' and 'policymakers'. This discourse as a description of a state of affairs does not suit empirical reality, and needs to be reformulated in more precise terms. If there is a communication gap, it is not to be situated between public administration („policymakers‟) and researchers („scientists‟), who share the same overall concerns, but between public administrations and ministerial cabinets. The analysis of risks related to electromagnetic fields (EMF), showed how the precautionary principle is reinterpreted differently at each different political level (European, Belgian, Wallonia, Regional) in order to better integrate the local institutional and political environment. In most cases, when this principle is put at the foreground, its use is mainly symbolic and incantatory. When implementing policies it does not seem to respond to some precautionary approach, but rather to the institutional dynamics which characterise each political level. We observed the reinforcement of the European role in the field of health & environment: in attempts to underline institutional cooperation at the federal level in Belgium and to reinforce the authority of the regional government on the Walloon territory. From this case study it is learnt that the new deliberative spaces to be developed should not be embedded in the dominant institutional structures. A structure such as promoted in the wake of "Technology assessment" (Delvenne, 2011) is capable of conciliating production of knowledge and uncertainties (the science pole) with the plurality of social perceptions (the civic pole) and the specific dynamics of the relevant polity (the political pole). New deliberative spaces should be capable of developing the basis for integrated and comparative approach for emerging issues with due attention to its political and institutional dimensions, while maintaining enough distance with the dominant frames and logics. Recently the Flemish administration on Environment, Nature & Energy proposed a note (framework) to deal with uncertain risks. The proposed framework will be tested in a pilot study for potential risks related to non-ionising electromagnetic radiation, and can later be extended to other risks. In a case study on Bisphenol-A (BPA), multi-level political communication was analysed. Political decisions were taken without socio-technical debate (Callon, 1986). The BPA issue was not very high on the social or political agenda in Belgium. There was no crisis, no strong pressure form NGO's. The question was managed first by the European authorities (EFSA & European Commission). The Belgian institutions were waiting for the European position. As the political decision did not encounter a strong contestation from the industry, this was an easy step for the political authorities, in Belgium and at the European level, to symbolically address the issue while avoiding considering the real uncertainties. When the decision was taken to ban the use of BPA in polycarbonate baby bottles, it was a political decision taken with the support of the scientific bodies (Superior Health Council) but without being embedded in any social debate (what about risks related to the chemicals which may substitute BPA?). It meant that the whole of uncertainties on the extent of risks related to the multiple exposures to different endocrine disruptors could not be put at the foreground in a public socio-technical debate. These case studies on the interplay with science, policy and stakeholders, on the framing of an environmental health policy problem, and on the management of complex risks (air pollution, EMF, BPA) contribute to recommendations on their governance. The question then becomes: is it possible to organize a precautionary decision making process to deal with different legitimate frames and the necessary trade-offs when considering policy alternatives? Concretely it is advised to pay attention to the role of a focal point in the process, potentially taken up by public administrations, to the co-production, availability and organisation of knowledge and information, and to the progress of the process. Above all it is important to set up a platform for issue framing and problem definition to highlight key factors that need to be assessed: - Examine the policy and stakeholder learning network related to a specific issue, with special attention to policy domains that are affected by or are affecting the environmental and health issue at stake. Specify who has interests in the issue and who should be involved. An efficient stakeholder network analysis is important for the further progress of the DMP. define who is allowed to take part in the process across different policy areas - Examine the information database before setting up a more integrative approach, both from a scientific (including uncertainties) and technical (alternatives, CBA analysis) point of view and from the side of concerned stakeholders. Policy makers acquire information from different inputs from science, stakeholder organisations, socio-economic actors and the public at large, as well as from administrations and staff members, and are conscious of the structural and constitutional constraints. It is clear that a balanced process of information gathering that is transparent, contributes to better decision making. - Initiate and manage the process: find out who will carry the process, set up a series of interactions between administrations, between administrations and cabinets, between administrations and research, between administrations, research and the public. Usable and meaningful available information on the issue should be communicated clearly to all stakeholders. It is innovative to look at how stakeholders increase their knowledge through different inputs and through communication, information and interaction. - Iterate where needed: information gained in one dialogue should be fed back into other fora. An equilibrium between acceptability – tolerability – uncertainty should be established. - Move forward / conclude. In the total policy cycle the conclusion or decision may be revised, when (1) monitoring of implementation and following evaluation is considered as negative; (2) new knowledge / experience / issues have to take into account. - Ensure an efficient and socially appropriate allocation of the resources and an adequate management of residual risks. Last but not least, in a precautionary approach it is also required, to contribute to the public trust in the decision making process and to construct social acceptance of the final decision. Generally, a precautionary decision making process should be considered as a double-pronged learning dynamics: on one side, the authorities are required to better take into account the multiple frames which abound in our pluralist societies when organising the conditions of political trade-offs for the governance of risks. On the other side, the citizens should have the possibility to, not only understand, but also adopt the decision and its consequences and to conform to its implementation. It is important to develop specific communication processes to successfully implement these two faces of a precautionary approach in the governance of risks, while ensuring this dual learning process. New procedures are currently developed which could support the communication dynamics for promoting multiple frames and comparing openly different alternatives (e.g. open process workshop; atelier scenarios; Delphi).Project SD/TA/10A : An Integrated Assessment Frame as Science Policy Interface for Decisions on (Environment-Related) Risks “SCoPE” SSD-Science for a Sustainable Development – Transversal Actions

Mapping bicycle use and the risk of accidents for commuters who cycle to work in Belgium

This paper explores the spatial patterns of bicycle use for commuting and the risk cyclists run being injured in a road accident when commuting to work in Belgium. Exploratory data analyses suggest that the observed differences in the use of the bicycle to get to work are strongly linked to the urban hierarchy: commuters are more inclined to cycle in cities and specifically in regional towns (with 25 000 to 120 000 inhabitants). In large cities (more than 200 000 inhabitants), less commuting by bicycle takes place. The relationship between bicycle use and the risk of being seriously injured or killed in a road accident is also studied. A cluster analysis confirms that high proportions of commuter cyclists are correlated with low risks of becoming a casualty. It also shows that there are strong spatial differences (regional and between different types of towns) in bicycle use and the risk of an accident. This suggests that cycling policies should be spatially differentiated

Exposure of cyclists to ultra fine particles

We present results from the Belgian SHAPES project, a policy oriented research project in which all major cycling related health risks are evaluated in an objective way. In this paper we present a methodology to estimate the exposure of ultra fine particulate matter (UFP numbers) to cyclists and results of measurements performed while cycling in real traffic. Methodology validation trials indicate that measured concentrations of UFP are independent of sampling direction (relative to cycling direction) and sampling height (between 0.9 and 1.6 m). Cyclists are exposed to frequent but short bursts of UFP, associated with motorized vehicles, even when cycling on the upwind side of the road. Concentrations range from below 10,000 to 500,000 cm−3. Peaks are related to the exhaust emissions of specific vehicles. UFP numbers quickly decrease with increasing distance from the road (approximately –6% m−1). There was no evidence for an effect of wind direction and dispersion at short range seems to be caused primarily by turbulence. Using this new methodology SHAPES will be able to determine the dose of UFP inhaled by cyclists compared to car users

Utilitarian Cycling in Belgium: A Cross-Sectional Study in a Sample of Regular Cyclists

Background: For an accurate estimation of health benefits and hazards of utilitarian cycling, a prospective collection of bicycle usage data (exposure) is fundamental. Individual and environmental correlates are necessary to guide health promotion and traffic safety issues. Firstly, this study aims to report on utilitarian bicycle usage in Belgium, using a prospective data collection in regular adult commuter cyclists. Secondly, the association is explored between the individual variation in bicycle usage and individual and environmental correlates. Methods: 1187 regular adult cyclists filled out travel diaries prospectively. Multivariate linear regression with Stepwise selection (SMLR) models studied the association between exposure and individual and environmental correlates. Results: Higher age and availability of cycle paths have a positive association with bicycle usage to work. Women cycle significant less compared with men, and so do cyclists with ‘poor’ or ‘average’ health. Living in an urban crown (opposed to city center) and living in Flanders (opposed to Brussels or Wallonia) is associated with significantly more cycling. Conclusions: Utilitarian cycling is related to regional differences, level of urbanization of the place of residence, availability of bicycle paths, and gender. These findings are useful in estimating health benefits and hazards of utilitarian cycling among regular Belgian cyclists

Luchtkwaliteit

Als gevolg van emissiereducties dalen de PM10- en PM2,5-concentraties gevoelig tegen 2020. Een aantal doelstellingen komt binnen handbereik, maar het halen van de Europese daggrenswaarde voor PM10 blijft ook in het Europa-scenario (EUR), zonder bijkomende maatregelen problematisch. Als gevolg van emissiereducties van de ozonprecursoren in het EUR-scenario dalen de ozonpiekconcentraties met ongeveer een derde tegen 2030. De jaargemiddelde ozonconcentratie blijft echter zowel in het referentie- (REF) als in het EUR-scenario stijgen.Klimaatverandering kan de positieve effecten van de verwachte emissiereducties op de ozon- en fijnstofvervuiling grotendeels of volledig tenietdoen. De doelstelling tegen 2010 voor de verzurende depositie wordt gemiddeld over Vlaanderen tijdig gehaald. Toch is zelfs in het EUR-scenario de depositie nog te hoog in een vijfde van Vlaanderen. De depositiedoelstelling voor 2030 wordt in zowel het REF- als in het EUR-scenario niet tijdig gerealiseerd. Respectievelijk 19 % en 6 % van de oppervlakte natuur ontvangt in 2030 een te hoge verzurende depositie. Het aandeel van NHx in de verzurende depositie neemt toe, en loopt in het EUR-scenario zelfs op tot 50 % in 2030. Dit bevestigt het belang van vermestende effecten: in 2030 ontvangt nog 29 % van de oppervlakte natuur een overmatige stikstofdepositie in het EUR-scenario