Prevalence and outcomes of atrial fibrillation in older people living in care homes in Wales: a routine data linkage study 2003-2018.

Objective: To determine atrial fibrillation (AF) prevalence and temporal trends, and examine associations between AF and risk of adverse health outcomes in older care home residents. Methods: Retrospective cohort study using anonymised linked data from the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank on CARE home residents in Wales with AF (SAIL CARE-AF) between 2003 and 2018. Fine-Gray competing risk models were used to estimate the risk of health outcomes with mortality as a competing risk. Cox regression analyses were used to estimate the risk of mortality. Results: There were 86,602 older care home residents (median age 86.0 years [interquartile range 80.8-90.6]) who entered a care home between 2003 and 2018. When the pre-care home entry data extraction was standardised, the overall prevalence of AF was 17.4% (95% confidence interval 17.1-17.8) between 2010 and 2018. There was no significant change in the age- and sex-standardised prevalence of AF from 16.8% (15.9-17.9) in 2010 to 17.0% (16.1-18.0) in 2018. Residents with AF had a significantly higher risk of cardiovascular mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.27 [1.17-1.37], P < 0.001), all-cause mortality (adjusted HR 1.14 [1.11-1.17], P < 0.001), ischaemic stroke (adjusted sub-distribution HR 1.55 [1.36-1.76], P < 0.001) and cardiovascular hospitalisation (adjusted sub-distribution HR 1.28 [1.22-1.34], P < 0.001). Conclusions: Older care home residents with AF have an increased risk of adverse health outcomes, even when higher mortality rates and other confounders are accounted for. This re-iterates the need for appropriate oral anticoagulant prescription and optimal management of cardiovascular co-morbidities, irrespective of frailty status and predicted life expectancy

Was Wright Right? The Canonical Genetic Code is an Empirical Example of an Adaptive Peak in Nature; Deviant Genetic Codes Evolved Using Adaptive Bridges

The canonical genetic code is on a sub-optimal adaptive peak with respect to its ability to minimize errors, and is close to, but not quite, optimal. This is demonstrated by the near-total adjacency of synonymous codons, the similarity of adjacent codons, and comparisons of frequency of amino acid usage with number of codons in the code for each amino acid. As a rare empirical example of an adaptive peak in nature, it shows adaptive peaks are real, not merely theoretical. The evolution of deviant genetic codes illustrates how populations move from a lower to a higher adaptive peak. This is done by the use of “adaptive bridges,” neutral pathways that cross over maladaptive valleys by virtue of masking of the phenotypic expression of some maladaptive aspects in the genotype. This appears to be the general mechanism by which populations travel from one adaptive peak to another. There are multiple routes a population can follow to cross from one adaptive peak to another. These routes vary in the probability that they will be used, and this probability is determined by the number and nature of the mutations that happen along each of the routes. A modification of the depiction of adaptive landscapes showing genetic distances and probabilities of travel along their multiple possible routes would throw light on this important concept

Adherence to the Atrial fibrillation Better Care pathway and the risk of adverse health outcomes in older care home residents with atrial fibrillation: a retrospective data linkage study 2003–18

Background: The Atrial fibrillation Better Care (ABC) pathway is the gold-standard approach to atrial fibrillation (AF) management, but the effect of implementation on health outcomes in care home residents is unknown. Objective: To examine associations between ABC pathway adherence and stroke, transient ischaemic attack, cardiovascular hospitalisation, major bleeding, mortality and a composite of all these outcomes in care home residents. Methods: A retrospective cohort study of older care home residents (≥65 years) in Wales with AF was conducted between 1 January 2003 and 31 December 2018 using the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank. Adherence to the ABC pathway was assessed at care home entry using pre-specified definitions. Cox proportional hazard and competing risk models were used to estimate the risk of health outcomes according to ABC adherence. Results: From 14,493 residents (median [interquartile range] age 87.0 [82.6–91.2] years, 35.2% male) with AF, 5,531 (38.2%) were ABC pathway adherent. Pathway adherence was not significantly associated with risk of the composite outcome (adjusted hazard ratio, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.01 [0.97–1.05]). There was a significant independent association observed between ABC pathway adherence and a reduced risk of myocardial infarction (0.70 [0.50–0.98]), but a higher risk of haemorrhagic stroke (1.59 [1.06–2.39]). ABC pathway adherence was not significantly associated with any other individual health outcomes examined. Conclusion: An ABC adherent approach in care home residents was not consistently associated with improved health outcomes. Findings should be interpreted with caution owing to difficulties in defining pathway adherence using routinely collected data and an individualised approach is recommended