Local government, political decentralisation and resilience to natural hazard-associated disasters

Natural hazards affect development and can cause significant and long-term suffering for those affected. Research has shown that sustained long-term disaster preparedness combined with appropriate response and recovery are needed to deliver effective risk reductions. However, as the newly agreed Sendai framework recognises, this knowledge has not been translated into action. This research aims to contribute to our understanding of how to deliver longer term and sustained risk reduction by evaluating the role of political decentralisation in disaster outcomes. Specifically, we investigate whether countries which devolve power to the local level experience reduced numbers of people affected by storms and earthquakes, and have lower economic damage. Using regression analysis and cross-country data from 1950 to 2006, we find that, in relation to both storms and earthquakes, greater transfers of political power to subnational tiers of government reduce hazard impacts on the population. The downside is that more politically decentralised countries, which are usually wealthier countries, can increase the direct economic losses associated with a natural hazard impact after the storm or earthquake than those which are more centralised. However, overall, it seems advantageous to give subnational governments more authority and autonomy in storm and earthquake risk planning

Sustainable rice cultivation in the deep flooded zones of the Vietnamese Mekong Delta

This paper explains how the management of the full-dyke system in the deep flooded zones of the Vietnamese Mekong Delta affects rice cultivation, and outlines how alternative dyke management strategies could offer more sustainable adaptations in the face of future environmental threats. The current management of the ‘full-dyke’ network has been successful in promoting triple-cropping rice cultivation, but this practice has prevented sediment deposition on the land surface. River-borne sediments deposited on the delta land surface have high economic value because they are (i) rich in nutrients (potentially 26 million USD/yr of free fertiliser to An Giang Province) and can (ii) help to maintain the Mekong Delta land above sealevel. Without a continuing supply of sediment to the delta, triple-cropping paddies may not continue to be sustainable or profitable for the majority of rice farmers over the next 10 to 20 years. The economic value of sediment as a free fertiliser is particularly important to poor farmers, as without sediment, they run a significant risk of debt due to fluctuations in rice, fertiliser, and other input prices. With incoming loads now declining, sediment must be managed carefully as a resource. Our projections show that the best use of the remaining sediment resource can be achieved by allowing full paddy flooding only in years of high sediment potential, and this would greatly increase the sustainability of rice agriculture in the face of future environmental change. This recommended policy is an option with few regrets, in that its other benefits include maximising groundwater replenishment, ensuring freshwater availability during drought periods (including countering salt water intrusion), cleansing rice paddies of pests and disease, and tempering downstream flooding. If triple-rice-cropping continues to have priority, financial support will particularly be needed to provide help to poorer farmers coping with increases in artificial fertiliser prices

A cross-scale worldwide analysis of coastal adaptation planning

The Paris Agreement requires measurement of the progress made on adaptation. Tracking the progress made by governments through analysis of policies provides insight into the goals and means to achieve adaptation targets. Here we show the current state-of-the-art in public adaptation planning affecting 136 of the largest coastal port urban agglomerations, covering 68 countries. We identify 226 adaptation policies: 88 at national level, 57 at regional/state level and 81 at city/metropolitan level. This set of adaptation policies can be considered the latest, most up-to-date database of governmental and public-led adaptations. Our analyses show that (1) in one half of cases, there is no evidence of policy implementation, (2) in almost 85% of cases, planned adaptation actions are not driven by present or future climatic impacts or risks, and (3) formal adaptation planning is relatively recent and is concentrated in more developed areas and countries.This study is part of the project CLIC (Are cities prepared for climate change? http://clic.bc3research.org/) supported by AXA Research Fund (Grant Agreement No. 4771) and the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (MINECO) (Grant Agreement No. IJCI-2016-28835). KV and RS acknowledge the support of the European Union programme Erasmus+

An investigation of the evidence of benefits from climate compatible development

Climate change is likely to have profound effects on developing countries both through the climate impacts experienced, but also through the policies, programmes and projects adopted to address climate change. Climate change mitigation (actions taken to reduce the extent of climate change), adaptation (actions taken to ameliorate the impacts), and on-going development are all critical to reduce current and future losses associated with climate change, and to harness gains. In the context of limited resources to invest in climate change, policies, programmes, or projects that deliver ‘triple wins’ (i.e. generating climate adaptation, mitigation and development benefits) – also known as climate compatible development – are increasingly discussed by bilateral and multilateral donors. Yet there remains an absence of empirical evidence of the benefits and costs of triple win policies. The purpose of this paper is therefore to assess evidence of ‘triple wins’ on the ground, and the feasibility of triple wins that do not generate negative impacts. We describe the theoretical linkages that exist between adaptation, mitigation and development, as well as the trade-offs and synergies that might exist between them. Using four developing country studies, we make a simple assessment of the extent of climate compatible development policy in practice through the lens of ‘no-regrets’, ‘low regrets’ and ‘with regrets’ decision making. The lack of evidence of either policy or practice of triple wins significantly limits the capacity of donors to identify, monitor or evaluate ‘triple wins at this point in time. We recommend a more strategic assessment of the distributional and financial implications of 'triple wins' policies

A framework for the design and evaluation of adaptation pathways in large river deltas

This series is based on the work of the Deltas, Vulnerability and Climate Change: Migration and Adaptation (DECCMA) project, funded by Canada’s International Development Research Centre (IDRC) and the UK’s Department for International Development (DFID) through the Collaborative Adaptation Research Initiative in Africa and Asia (CARIAA). CARIAA aims to build the resilience of vulnerable populations and their livelihoods in three climate change hot spots in Africa and Asia. The program supports collaborative research to inform adaptation policy and practice.The pathways approach to adaptation has been applied to delta regions previously, but to a limited extent, Haasnoot et al. (2012), for instance, explore a theoretical delta case. Perhaps the most pertinent example is Kwakkel et al. (2015), who systematically evaluate adaptation pathways in the Rhine Delta. They highlight the strong decision-support potential of systematic multi-objective evaluation of flexible pathways (i.e. pathways which can be switched between as the system evolves through time). Yet their policy set might be regarded as restricted when compared with the scope of the DECCMA project; they do not model household decision-making or diverse livelihoods, and consider primarily hard, hydraulic adaptation interventions. Most importantly they do not consider migration and relocation choices, which are now becoming pertinent in delta regions. The systematic evaluation of cross-sectoral adaptation pathways at the large-system scale seems largely unexplored, and worthy of consideration for methodological learning, and because of its potential role in enabling climate-resilient development

Brown algae invasions and bloom events need routine monitoring for effective adaptation

Brown algae blooms and invasions have affected 29% of the Earth’s coast, yet there is sparse evidence of the impacts and adaptations of these events. Through a systematic review of empirical literature on these blooms and invasions, we explore the prevalence of conventional analyses of environmental, economic, and social impacts, as well as opportunities for adaptation and valorisation. The study reveals crucial inconsistencies in the current evidence base on algae impacts: fragmented metrics for quantifying blooms and their effects; inconsistent application and testing of prevention measures (e.g. forecasting, early warning systems); reliance on removal as a management approach with limited evidence of associated costs; and scant evidence of the effectiveness of impact mitigation or adaptation strategies. With a focus on economic and societal dimensions of algae events, we introduce emerging opportunities within the blue economy for bloom utilization. The findings highlight the crucial need for harmonized monitoring protocols, robust cost-benefit analysis of management and adaptation options, and evidence of pathways to valorisation of algae biomass

Climate resilience: interpretations of the term and implications for practice

The term ‘resilience’, which is integral to the UK Climate Resilience Programme (UKCR), has been used increasingly in academic, practice and public discourse around climate change, and crises more generally. The term’s appeal comes from its ability to frame crises not as uncontrollable and uncertain phenomena to be feared, but as challenges over which one can triumph, with the potential for improving society

Conservation organizations need to consider adaptive capacity: why local input matters

Conservation organizations are increasingly applying adaptive capacity assessments in response to escalating climate change impacts. These assessments are essential to identify climate risks to ecosystems, prioritize management interventions, maximize the effectiveness of conservation actions, and ensure conservation resources are allocated appropriately. Despite an extensive literature on the topic, there is little agreement on the most relevant factors needed to support local scale initiatives, and additional guidance is needed to clarify how adaptive capacity should be assessed. This article discusses why adaptive capacity assessment represents a critical tool supporting conservation planning and management. It also evaluates key factors guiding conservation NGOs conducting these assessments in tropical island communities, and explores alternative priorities based on input from academic experts and key local stakeholders. Our results demonstrate that important differences exist between local stakeholders and nonlocal academic experts on key factors affecting adaptation and coping mechanisms. The exclusion of local community input affects the validity of adaptive capacity assessment findings, and has significant implications for the prioritization and effectiveness of conservation strategies and funding allocation

Observed adaptation in deltas

This working paper describes the method used to collate the evidence of observed adaptations (section 2); presents the data collected within the Deltas, Vulnerability and Climate Change: Migration and Adaptation (DECCMA) project (section 3), as well as its limitations (section 4), followed by some general conclusions (section 5). Agricultural adaptations and risk management initiatives predominate the inventory of adaptations. Risk management in terms of water resources management initiatives relate to the frequency of hydro‐meteorological hazards: droughts, floods, storms, tidal waves and tropical cyclones. There is lack of evidence regarding building ecosystem resilience as a form of adaptation.UK’s Department for International Development (DFID