Estimate of turbulent fluxes with eddy-covariance technique in a complex topography: A case study in the Italian Alps

A sensitivity analysis to different eddy—covariance data processing algorithms is presented for a dataset collected in an Alpine environment with complex topography. In Summer 2012 a micrometeorological station was installed at Cividate Camuno (274 m a.s.l., Oglio river basin, Central Italian Alps), in a flat and rectangular grass-covered lawn. The grass was 0.6 m tall during most of the field campaign. The station is equipped with traditional devices, four multiplexed TDR probes, and an eddy--covariance apparatus sampling at 20 Hz (Gill WindMaster Sonic Anemometer and Licor Li7500 Gas Analyzer), at about 3 m above the ground. The local winds regime is strongly affected by the morphology of the valley, and the topography is complex also due to the heterogeneity of the surrounding-areas land—cover. Using EddyPro software, the sensitivity of the turbulent fluxes estimate was assessed addressing three major issues of the data processing procedure, i.e. the choice of the computational averaging period, of the axis rotation method and of the data detrending criterion. Once identified three test periods of consecutive days without rainfall, the fluxes of momentum, sensible heat and latent heat were computed at the averaging period of 30, 60 and 120 min respectively. At each averaging period, both the triple rotation method, the double rotation method and the planar fit method were applied. Particularly the latter was applied both fitting a unique plane for all the wind directions and fitting multiple planes, one for each sector of the wind rose. Regarding the detrending criteria, data were processed with a block average and a linear detrend, the latter with time constant of 5, 30, 60 and 120 min respectively. Therefore, for each test period about 50 estimates of the fluxes were provided. As a result the obtained fluxes were compared. Even if with different flux quality, their pattern is quite stable with regard to the applied estimate procedures, but with sensitively different average values

Hydraulic hazard mapping in alpine dam break prone areas: the Cancano dam case

Dam-break hazard assessment is of great importance in the Italian Alps, where a large number of medium and large reservoirs are present in valleys that are characterized by widespread urbanized zones on alluvial fans and along valley floors. Accordingly, there is the need to identify specific operative approaches in order to quantify hydraulic hazard which in mountain regions inevitably differ from the ones typically used in flat flood-prone areas. These approaches take advantage of: 1) specific numerical algorithms to pre-process the massive topographic information generally needed to describe very irregular bathymetries; 2) an appropriate mathematical model coupled with a robust numerical method which can deal in an effective way with variable geometries like the ones typical of natural alpine rivers; 3) suitable criteria for the hydraulic hazard assessment; 4) representative test cases to verify the accuracy of the overall procedure. This contribution presents some preliminary results obtained in the development of this complex toolkit, showing its application to the test case of the Cancano dam-break, for which the results from a physical model are available. This case was studied in 1943 by De Marchi, who investigated the consequences of the potential collapse of the Cancano dam in Northern Italy as a possible war target during the World War II. Although dated, the resulting report (De Marchi, 1945) is very interesting, since it mixes in a synergistic way theoretical, experimental and numerical considerations. In particular, the laboratory data set concerning the dam-break wave propagation along the valley between the Cancano dam and the village of Cepina provides an useful benchmark for testing the predictive effectiveness of mathematical and numerical models in mountain applications. Here we suggest an overall approach based on the 1D shallow water equations that proved particularly effective for studying dam-break wave propagation in alpine valleys, although this kind of problems is naturally subject to "substantial uncertainties and unavoidable arbitrarinesses" (translation from De Marchi, 1945). The equations are solved by means of a shock-capturing finite volume method involving the Pavia Flux Predictor (PFP) scheme proposed by Braschi and Gallati (1992). The comparison between numerical results and experimental data confirms that the mathematical model adopted is capable of capturing the main engineering aspects of the phenomenon modeled by De Marchi

A multi-century meteo-hydrological analysis for the Adda river basin (Central Alps). Part I: Gridded monthly precipitation (1800–2016) records

The 1800–2016 monthly precipitation record for the upper Adda river basin is presented. It is computed by applying the anomaly method to a quality-checked and homogenized observation database. The reconstruction accuracy and its evolution over the study period is evaluated at both station and grid-cell levels. The anomaly-based interpolation provides rather robust estimates even for the early years of sparse station coverage with basin precipitation reconstruction errors around 10%. The Theil-Sen trend analysis on the basin precipitation series shows significant (Mann-Kendall p value <.05) long-term tendencies of −3.8 ± 1.9% and −9.3 ± 3.8% century−1 for annual and autumn precipitation, respectively, even though the annual trend is not significant by excluding the first decades from the evaluation. As the basin precipitation record is expected to be underestimated due to the rain-gauge snow undercatch, the monthly precipitation fields are subjected to a correction procedure which allows to derive the multiplicative correcting constant to be applied to the basin annual precipitation series. The comparison between 1845 and 2016 yearly corrected precipitation and runoff records highlights current annual water losses of about 400 mm while the annual runoff coefficients exhibit a long-term significant decrease of −6.4 ± 1.0% century−1. This change in the hydrological cycle is mostly to be ascribed to the strong long-term reduction in annual runoff values (−11.8 ± 3.2% century−1) driven by increasing evapotranspiration due to both temperature increase and, likely, land-use changes

cetuximab induced acneiform eruption and the response to isotretinoin

n/

First-line treatment for advanced ovarian cancer: paclitaxel, platinum and the evidence

Four large randomised trials of paclitaxel in combination with platinum against a platinum-based control treatment have now been published in full, representing around 88% (3588 out of 4057) of patients randomised into the eight known trials of this question. There is substantial heterogeneity in the results of these four trials. Four main explanations for this heterogeneity have been proposed: differences in the extent and timing of ‘crossover’ to taxanes in the control groups; differences in the types of patient included; differences in the effectiveness of the research regimens used; differences in the effectiveness of the control regimens used. In this study we examine whether any of these explanations is consistent with the pattern of results seen in these trials. Each explanation suggests that a particular characteristic of each trial was responsible for the results observed. For each explanation the trials were split into groups according to that characteristic, in order to partition the total heterogeneity into that seen ‘within’ and ‘between’ groups of trials. If a particular explanation was consistent with the pattern of results, we would expect to see relatively little heterogeneity within each group of trial results viewed in this way, with most of the heterogeneity being between groups which are dissimilar with respect to the key characteristic. Heterogeneity ‘within’ and ‘between’ groups was formally compared using the F-ratio. If any explanation appeared to be consistent with the results of the trials, it was considered whether the explanation was also consistent with other evidence available about these regimens. Only one explanation appeared to be consistent with the pattern of results seen in these trials, and that was differences in effectiveness of the control arms used in these trials. This suggests that the very positive results in favour of paclitaxel/cisplatin seen in two of the trials may have been due to the use of a suboptimal control arm. There is no direct evidence about the relative effectiveness of the control arms used in these trials, but indirect evidence is consistent with the conclusion that the cyclophosphamide/cisplatin regimen used in two of the trials may be less effective than the control regimens used in the other trials. Specific concerns about the choice of a cyclophosphamide/cisplatin control arm in the first of these trials to report were raised before the results of the other trials were known, i.e. before any heterogeneity had been observed. Further investigation of this question would be useful. In the meantime, given all of the randomised evidence on the efficacy and toxicity associated with the regimens used in these trials, we conclude that single agent carboplatin is a safe and effective first-line treatment for women with advanced ovarian cancer