The Complexity Dilemma in Policy Market Design

Regulators are increasingly pursuing their policy objectives by creating markets. To create a policy market, regulators require firms to procure a product that is socially useful but that confers little direct private benefit to the acquiring party. Examples of policy markets include pollutant emissions trading programs, renewable energy credit markets, and electricity capacity markets. Existing scholarship has tended to analyze policy markets simply as market-based regulation. Although not inaccurate, such inquiries are necessarily incomplete because they do not focus on the distinctive traits of policy markets. Policy markets are neither typical regulations nor typical markets. Concentrating on policy markets as a distinctive type of market brings to light common characteristics of such markets, which in turn generates insights into how they can be used more effectively to implement policy. In particular, this Article focuses on a recurring fundamental challenge in policy market design: managing complexity. Typical markets manage complexity through market forces. As a regulatory creation, however, policy markets require regulators to manage their complexity. This poses what we call the complexity dilemma, which requires regulators to balance strong pressures both toward and away from complexity. The central argument of this Article is that although policy markets are an important part of a regulator’s toolkit, they are also subject to complexity that limits their usefulness. Understanding the complexity dilemma and its crucial role in policy market design forms an essential step toward progress in improving the design and function of these markets

A comparison of methods for treatment selection in seamless phase II/III clinical trials incorporating information on short-term endpoints

In an adaptive seamless phase II/III clinical trial interim analysis data are used for treatment selection, enabling resources to be focussed on comparison of more effective treatment(s) with a control. In this paper we compare two methods recently proposed to enable use of short-term endpoint data for decision-making at the interim analysis. The comparison focusses on the power and the probability of correctly identifying the most promising treatment. We show that the choice of method depends on how well short-term data predict the best treatment, which may be measured by the correlation between treatment effects on short-term and long-term endpoints

Stock assessment of protogynous fish: evaluating measures of spawning biomass used to estimate biological reference points

In stock assessments, recruitment is typically modeled as a function of females only. For protogynous stocks, however, disproportionate fishing on males increases the possibility of reduced fertilization rates. To incorporate the importance of males in protogynous stocks, assessment models have been used to predict recruitment not just from female spawning biomass (Sf), but also from that of males (Sm) or both sexes (Sb). We conducted a simulation study to evaluate the ability of these three measures to estimate biological reference points used in fishery management. Of the three, Sf provides best estimates if the potential for decreased fertilization is weak, whereas Sm is best only if the potential is very strong. In general, Sb estimates the true reference points most closely, which indicates that if the potential for decreased fertilization is moderate or unknown, Sb should be used in assessments of protogynous stocks. Moreover, for a broad range of scenarios, relative errors from Sf and Sb occur in opposite directions, indicating that estimates from these measures could be used to bound uncertainty

Studies in predictor display technique Final report

Predictor display technique for manual altitude control, and automatic pitch axis performanc

Characterisation of damage mechanisms in oxide ceramics indented at dynamic and quasi-static strain rates

Ceramic materials are known to display rate dependent behaviour under impact. Tests to establish the strain-rate dependent variations in damage mechanisms have been carried out on debased alumina, an alumina-zirconia composite, and 3Y-TZP. Materials were indented dynamically and quasi-statically using identical sharp hardened steel projectiles while recording the load profile. Characteristics typical of both sharp and blunt indentation types were observed using scanning electron microscopy and piezospectroscopic mapping. At dynamic strain rates both the depth of the indentation and the residual stress in the material were lower than for quasi-static tests. This was attributed to temperature-induced softening of the projectile. Unusual behaviour was observed in the 3Y-TZP samples due to the reversible transformation from tetragonal to monoclinic crystal structures during mechanical loading. These effects and the observed superior mechanical strength against impact suggest that zirconia or zirconia-composite materials may have advantages over debased alumina for application as ceramic armour materials

The Replication Argument for Incompatibilism

In this paper, I articulate an argument for incompatibilism about moral responsibility and determinism. My argument comes in the form of an extended story, modeled loosely on Peter van Inwagen’s “rollback argument” scenario. I thus call it “the replication argument.” As I aim to bring out, though the argument is inspired by so-called “manipulation” and “original design” arguments, the argument is not a version of either such argument—and plausibly has advantages over both. The result, I believe, is a more convincing incompatibilist argument than those we have considered previously

Apollo Lunar Sample Photograph Digitization Project Update

This is an update of the progress of a 4-year data restoration project effort funded by the LASER program to digitize photographs of the Apollo lunar rock samples and create high resolution digital images and undertaken by the Astromaterials Acquisition and Curation Office at JSC [1]. The project is currently in its last year of funding. We also provide an update on the derived products that make use of the digitized photos including the Lunar Sample Catalog and Photo Database[2], Apollo Sample data files for GoogleMoon[3]

The 2nd order renormalization group flow for non-linear sigma models in 2 dimensions

We show that for two dimensional manifolds M with negative Euler characteristic there exists subsets of the space of smooth Riemannian metrics which are invariant and either parabolic or backwards-parabolic for the 2nd order RG flow. We also show that solutions exists globally on these sets. Finally, we establish the existence of an eternal solution that has both a UV and IR limit, and passes through regions where the flow is parabolic and backwards-parabolic

Improving the Discoverability and Availability of Sample Data and Imagery in NASA's Astromaterials Curation Digital Repository Using a New Common Architecture for Sample Databases

The Astromaterials Acquisition and Curation Office at NASA's Johnson Space Center (JSC) is the designated facility for curating all of NASA's extraterrestrial samples. The suite of collections includes the lunar samples from the Apollo missions, cosmic dust particles falling into the Earth's atmosphere, meteorites collected in Antarctica, comet and interstellar dust particles from the Stardust mission, asteroid particles from the Japanese Hayabusa mission, and solar wind atoms collected during the Genesis mission. To support planetary science research on these samples, NASA's Astromaterials Curation Office hosts the Astromaterials Curation Digital Repository, which provides descriptions of the missions and collections, and critical information about each individual sample. Our office is implementing several informatics initiatives with the goal of better serving the planetary research community. One of these initiatives aims to increase the availability and discoverability of sample data and images through the use of a newly designed common architecture for Astromaterials Curation databases