HOPS 383: An Outbursting Class 0 Protostar in Orion

We report the dramatic mid-infrared brightening between 2004 and 2006 of HOPS 383, a deeply embedded protostar adjacent to NGC 1977 in Orion. By 2008, the source became a factor of 35 brighter at 24 microns with a brightness increase also apparent at 4.5 microns. The outburst is also detected in the submillimeter by comparing APEX/SABOCA to SCUBA data, and a scattered-light nebula appeared in NEWFIRM K_s imaging. The post-outburst spectral energy distribution indicates a Class 0 source with a dense envelope and a luminosity between 6 and 14 L_sun. Post-outburst time-series mid- and far-infrared photometry shows no long-term fading and variability at the 18% level between 2009 and 2012. HOPS 383 is the first outbursting Class 0 object discovered, pointing to the importance of episodic accretion at early stages in the star formation process. Its dramatic rise and lack of fading over a six-year period hint that it may be similar to FU Ori outbursts, although the luminosity appears to be significantly smaller than the canonical luminosities of such objects.Comment: Accepted by ApJ Letters, 6 pages, 4 figures; v2 has an updated email address for the lead autho

Aerothermal Ground Testing of Flexible Thermal Protection Systems for Hypersonic Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerators

Flexible TPS development involves ground testing and analysis necessary to characterize performance of the FTPS candidates prior to flight testing. This paper provides an overview of the analysis and ground testing efforts performed over the last year at the NASA Langley Research Center and in the Boeing Large-Core Arc Tunnel (LCAT). In the LCAT test series, material layups were subjected to aerothermal loads commensurate with peak re-entry conditions enveloping a range of HIAD mission trajectories. The FTPS layups were tested over a heat flux range from 20 to 50 W/cm with associated surface pressures of 3 to 8 kPa. To support the testing effort a significant redesign of the existing shear (wedge) model holder from previous testing efforts was undertaken to develop a new test technique for supporting and evaluating the FTPS in the high-temperature, arc jet flow. Since the FTPS test samples typically experience a geometry change during testing, computational fluid dynamic (CFD) models of the arc jet flow field and test model were developed to support the testing effort. The CFD results were used to help determine the test conditions experienced by the test samples as the surface geometry changes. This paper includes an overview of the Boeing LCAT facility, the general approach for testing FTPS, CFD analysis methodology and results, model holder design and test methodology, and selected thermal results of several FTPS layups

Palaeontological evidence for an Oligocene divergence between Old World monkeys and apes

Apes and Old World monkeys are prominent components of modern African and Asian ecosystems, yet the earliest phases of their evolutionary history have remained largely undocumented(1). The absence of crown catarrhine fossils older than similar to 20 million years (Myr) has stood in stark contrast to molecular divergence estimates of similar to 25-30 Myr for the split between Cercopithecoidea (Old World monkeys) and Hominoidea (apes), implying long ghost lineages for both clades(2-4). Here we describe the oldest known fossil 'ape', represented by a partial mandible preserving dental features that place it with 'nyanzapithecine' stem hominoids. Additionally, we report the oldest stem member of the Old World monkey clade, represented by a lower third molar. Both specimens were recovered from a precisely dated 25.2-Myr-old stratum in the Rukwa Rift, a segment of the western branch of the East African Rift in Tanzania. These finds extend the fossil record of apes and Old World monkey swell into the Oligocene epoch of Africa, suggesting a possible link between diversification of crown catarrhines and changes in the African landscape brought about by previously unrecognized tectonic activity(5) in the East African rift system

The Herschel Orion Protostar Survey: Luminosity and Envelope Evolution

The Herschel Orion Protostar Survey obtained well-sampled 1.2–870 μm spectral energy distributions (SEDs) of over 300 protostars in the Orion molecular clouds, home to most of the young stellar objects (YSOs) in the nearest 500 pc. We plot the bolometric luminosities and temperatures for 330 Orion YSOs, 315 of which have bolometric temperatures characteristic of protostars. The histogram of the bolometric temperature is roughly flat; 29% of the protostars are in Class 0. The median luminosity decreases by a factor of four with increasing bolometric temperature; consequently, the Class 0 protostars are systematically brighter than the Class I protostars, with a median luminosity of 2.3 L_☉ as opposed to 0.87 L_☉. At a given bolometric temperature, the scatter in luminosities is three orders of magnitude. Using fits to the SEDs, we analyze how the luminosities corrected for inclination and foreground reddening relate to the mass in the inner 2500 au of the best-fit model envelopes. The histogram of the envelope mass is roughly flat, while the median-corrected luminosity peaks at 15 L_☉ for young envelopes and falls to 1.7 L_☉ for late-stage protostars with remnant envelopes. The spread in luminosity at each envelope mass is three orders of magnitude. Envelope masses that decline exponentially with time explain the flat mass histogram and the decrease in luminosity, while the formation of a range of stellar masses explains the dispersion in luminosity

Have Financial Markets Become More Informative?

The finance industry has grown. Financial markets have become more liquid. Information technology has improved. But have prices become more informative? Using stock and bond prices to forecast earnings, we find that the information content of market prices has not increased since 1960. The magnitude of earnings surprises, however, has increased. A baseline model predicts that as the efficiency of information production increases, prices become more disperse and covary more strongly with future earnings. The forecastable component of earnings improves capital allocation and serves as a direct measure of welfare. We find that this measure has remained stable. A model with endogenous information acquisition predicts that an increase in fundamental uncertainty also increases informativeness as the incentive to produce information grows. We find that uncertainty has indeed increased outside of the S&P 500, but price informativeness has not

Organic farming provides reliable environmental benefits but increases variability in crop yields: a global meta-analysis

To promote food security and sustainability, ecologically intensive farming systems should reliably produce adequate yields of high-quality food, enhance the environment, be profitable, and promote social wellbeing. Yet, while many studies address the mean effects of ecologically intensive farming systems on sustainability metrics, few have considered variability. This represents a knowledge gap because producers depend on reliable provisioning of yields, profits, and environmental services to enhance the sustainability of their production systems over time. Further, stable crop yields are necessary to ensure reliable access to nutritious foods. Here we address this by conducting a global meta-analysis to assess the average magnitude and variability of seven sustainability metrics in organic compared to conventional systems. Specifically, we explored the effects of these systems on (i) biotic abundance, (ii) biotic richness, (iii) soil organic carbon, (iv) soil carbon stocks, (v) crop yield, (vi) total production costs, and (vii) profitability. Organic farms promoted biotic abundance, biotic richness, soil carbon, and profitability, but conventional farms produced higher yields. Compared to conventional farms, organic farms had lower variability in abundance and richness but greater yield variability. Organic farms thus provided a “win-win” (high means and low variability) for environmental sustainability, while conventional farms provided a “win-win” for production by promoting high crop yields with low variability. Despite lower yields, and greater yield variability, organic systems had similar costs to conventional systems and were more profitable due to organic premiums. Our results suggest certification guidelines for organic farms successfully promote reliable environmental benefits, but greater reliance on ecological processes may reduce predictability of crop production