Can citizens guess how other citizens voted based on demographic characteristics?

How well do citizens understand the associations between social groups and political divisions in their societies? Previous research has indicated systematic biases in how the demographic composition of party supporters are perceived, but this need not imply that citizens misperceive the likely voting behavior of specific individuals. We report results from two experiments where subjects were provided with randomly selected demographic profiles of respondents to the 2017 British Election Study (BES) and then asked to assess either (1) which party that individual was likely to have voted for in the 2017 UK election or (2) whether that individual was likely to have voted Leave or Remain in the 2016 UK referendum on EU membership. We find that, despite substantial overconfidence in individual responses, on average citizens’ guesses broadly reflect the actual distribution of groups supporting the parties and referendum positions

The kinematics of swimming and relocation jumps in copepod nauplii

Copepod nauplii move in a world dominated by viscosity. Their swimming-by-jumping propulsion mode, with alternating power and recovery strokes of three pairs of cephalic appendages, is fundamentally different from the way other microplankters move. Protozoans move using cilia or flagella, and copepodites are equipped with highly specialized swimming legs. In some species the nauplius may also propel itself more slowly through the water by beating and rotating the appendages in a different, more complex pattern. We use high-speed video to describe jumping and swimming in nauplii of three species of pelagic copepods: Temora longicornis, Oithona davisae and Acartia tonsa. The kinematics of jumping is similar between the three species. Jumps result in a very erratic translation with no phase of passive coasting and the nauplii move backwards during recovery strokes. This is due to poorly synchronized recovery strokes and a low beat frequency relative to the coasting time scale. For the same reason, the propulsion efficiency of the nauplii is low. Given the universality of the nauplius body plan, it is surprising that they seem to be inefficient when jumping, which is different from the very efficient larger copepodites. A slow-swimming mode is only displayed by T. longicornis. In this mode, beating of the appendages results in the creation of a strong feeding current that is about 10 times faster than the average translation speed of the nauplius. The nauplius is thus essentially hovering when feeding, which results in a higher feeding efficiency than that of a nauplius cruising through the water

Prey detection and prey capture in copepod nauplii

Copepod nauplii are either ambush feeders that feed on motile prey or they produce a feeding current that entrains prey cells. It is unclear how ambush and feeding-current feeding nauplii perceive and capture prey. Attack jumps in ambush feeding nauplii should not be feasible at low Reynolds numbers due to the thick viscous boundary layer surrounding the attacking nauplius. We use high-speed video to describe the detection and capture of phytoplankton prey by the nauplii of two ambush feeding species (Acartia tonsa and Oithona davisae) and by the nauplii of one feeding-current feeding species (Temora longicornis). We demonstrate that the ambush feeders both detect motile prey remotely. Prey detection elicits an attack jump, but the jump is not directly towards the prey, such as has been described for adult copepods. Rather, the nauplius jumps past the prey and sets up an intermittent feeding current that pulls in the prey from behind towards the mouth. The feeding-current feeding nauplius detects prey arriving in the feeding current but only when the prey is intercepted by the setae on the feeding appendages. This elicits an altered motion pattern of the feeding appendages that draws in the prey

Beliefs about weight and breast cancer: An interview study with high risk women following a 12 month weight loss intervention

This is an Version of Record of an article published by BioMed Central in Hereditary Cancer in Clinical Practice on 9 January 2015, available online: http://www.hccpjournal.com/content/13/1/1 This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly credited. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.Breast cancer is the most common cancer in the UK. Lifestyle factors including excess weight contribute to risk of developing the disease. Whilst the exact links between weight and breast cancer are still emerging, it is imperative to explore how women understand these links and if these beliefs impact on successful behaviour change. Overweight/obese premenopausal women (aged 35–45) with a family history of breast cancer (lifetime risk 17–40%) were invited to a semi-structured interview following their participation in a 12 month weight loss intervention aimed at reducing their risk of breast cancer. Interviews were carried out with 9 women who successfully achieved ≥5% weight loss and 11 who were unsuccessful. Data were transcribed verbatim and analysed using thematic analysis. Three themes were developed from the analysis. The first theme how women construct and understand links between weight and breast cancer risk is composed of two subthemes, the construction of weight and breast cancer risk and making sense of weight and breast cancer risk. The second theme - motivation and adherence to weight loss interventions - explains that breast cancer risk can be a motivating factor for adherence to a weight loss intervention. The final theme, acceptance of personal responsibility for health is composed of two subthemes responsibility for one’s own health and responsibility for family health through making sensible lifestyle choices.Beliefs about weight and breast cancer risk were informed by social networks, media reports and personal experiences of significant others diagnosed with breast cancer. Our study has highlighted common doubts, anxieties and questions and the importance of providing a credible rationale for weight control and weight loss which addresses individual concerns

The Liquidity Trap, the Real Balance Effect, and the Friedman Rule

This paper studies the behavior of the economy and the efficacy of monetary policy under zero nominal interest rates, using a model with population growth that nests, as a special case, a more conventional specification in which there is a single infinitely lived representative agent. The paper shows that with a growing population, monetary policy has distributional effects that give rise to a real balance effect, thereby eliminating the liquidity trap. These same distributional effects, however, can also work to make many agents much worse off under zero nominal interest rates than they are when the nominal interest rate is positive

Should the Government Be in the Banking Business? The Role of State-Owned and Development Banks

This paper surveys the theoretical and empirical literature on the role of state-owned banks and also presents some new results and a robustness analysis. The paper shows that state-owned banks located in developing countries have fiscal costs because they are characterized by lower returns than comparable privately owned banks (on the other hand, there is no evidence that state-owned banks located in industrial countries are less profitable than their private counterparts). We then point out that this evidence cannot be used as an argument against the existence of state-owned banks, as this low profitability might stem from state-owned banks activity on projects characterized by low private sector investment and high social return. While we find no evidence that the presence of state-owned banks promotes economic growth or financial development, we also find that the evidence that state-owned banks lead to lower growth and financial development is not as strong as previously thought