Linear and nonlinear post-processing of numerically forecasted surface temperature

International audienceIn this paper we test different approaches to the statistical post-processing of gridded numerical surface air temperatures (provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) onto the temperature measured at surface weather stations located in the Italian region of Puglia. We consider simple post-processing techniques, like correction for altitude, linear regression from different input parameters and Kalman filtering, as well as a neural network training procedure, stabilised (i.e. driven into the absolute minimum of the error function over the learning set) by means of a Simulated Annealing method. A comparative analysis of the results shows that the performance with neural networks is the best. It is encouraging for systematic use in meteorological forecast-analysis service operations

Transition from regular to complex behaviour in a discrete deterministic asymmetric neural network model

We study the long time behaviour of the transient before the collapse on the periodic attractors of a discrete deterministic asymmetric neural networks model. The system has a finite number of possible states so it is not possible to use the term chaos in the usual sense of sensitive dependence on the initial condition. Nevertheless, at varying the asymmetry parameter, $k$, one observes a transition from ordered motion (i.e. short transients and short periods on the attractors) to a ``complex'' temporal behaviour. This transition takes place for the same value $k_{\rm c}$ at which one has a change for the mean transient length from a power law in the size of the system ($N$) to an exponential law in $N$. The ``complex'' behaviour during the transient shows strong analogies with the chaotic behaviour: decay of temporal correlations, positive Shannon entropy, non-constant Renyi entropies of different orders. Moreover the transition is very similar to that one for the intermittent transition in chaotic systems: scaling law for the Shannon entropy and strong fluctuations of the ``effective Shannon entropy'' along the transient, for $k > k_{\rm c}$.Comment: 18 pages + 6 figures, TeX dialect: Plain TeX + IOP macros (included

Whole Exome Sequencing Study of Parkinson Disease and Related Endophenotypes in the Italian Population

Parkinson Disease (PD) is a complex neurodegenerative disorder characterized by large genetic heterogeneity and missing heritability. Since the genetic background of PD can partly vary among ethnicities and neurological scales have been scarcely investigated in a PD setting, we performed an exploratory Whole Exome Sequencing (WES) analysis of 123 PD patients from mainland Italy, investigating scales assessing motor (UPDRS), cognitive (MoCA), and other non-motor symptoms (NMS). We performed variant prioritization, followed by targeted association testing of prioritized variants in 446 PD cases and 211 controls. Then we ran Exome-Wide Association Scans (EWAS) within sequenced PD cases (N = 113), testing both motor and non-motor PD endophenotypes, as well as their associations with Polygenic Risk Scores (PRS) influencing brain subcortical volumes. We identified a variant associated with PD, rs201330591 in GTF2H2 (5q13; alternative T allele: OR [CI] = 8.16[1.08; 61.52], FDR = 0.048), which was not replicated in an independent cohort of European ancestry (1,148 PD cases, 503 controls). In the EWAS, polygenic analyses revealed statistically significant multivariable associations of amygdala- [\u3b2(SE) = -0.039(0.013); FDR = 0.039] and caudate-PRS [0.043(0.013); 0.028] with motor symptoms. All subcortical PRSs in a multivariable model notably increased the variance explained in motor (adjusted-R2 = 38.6%), cognitive (32.2%) and other non-motor symptoms (28.9%), compared to baseline models (~20%). Although, the small sample size warrants further replications, these findings suggest shared genetic architecture between PD symptoms and subcortical structures, and provide interesting clues on PD genetic and neuroimaging features

Autosomal-dominant myopia associated to a novel P4HA2 missense variant and defective collagen hydroxylation

We recently described a complex multisystem syndrome in which mild-moderate myopia segregated as an independent trait. A plethora of genes has been related to sporadic and familial myopia. More recently, in Chinese patients severe myopia (MYP25, OMIM:617238) has been linked to mutations in P4HA2 gene. Seven family members complaining of reduced distance vision especially at dusk underwent complete ophthalmological examination. Whole-exome sequencing was performed to identify the gene responsible for myopia in the pedigree. Moderate myopia was diagnosed in the family which was associated to the novel missense variant c.1147A > G p.(Lys383Glu) in the prolyl 4-hydroxylase,alpha-polypeptide 2 (P4HA2) gene, which catalyzes the formation of 4-hydroxyproline residues in the collagen strands. In vitro studies demonstrated P4HA2 mRNA and protein reduced expression level as well as decreased collagen hydroxylation and deposition in mutated fibroblast primary cultures compared to healthy cell lines. This study suggests that P4HA2 mutations may lead to myopic axial elongation of eyeball as a consequence of quantitative and structural alterations of collagen. This is the first confirmatory study which associates a novel dominant missense variant in P4HA2 with myopia in Caucasian patients. Further studies in larger cohorts are advisable to fully clarify genotype-phenotype correlations.We recently described a complex multisystem syndrome in which mild-moderate myopia segregated as an independent trait. A plethora of genes has been related to sporadic and familial myopia. More recently, in Chinese patients severe myopia (MYP25, OMIM:617238) has been linked to mutations in P4HA2 gene. Seven family members complaining of reduced distance vision especially at dusk underwent complete ophthalmological examination. Whole-exome sequencing was performed to identify the gene responsible for myopia in the pedigree. Moderate myopia was diagnosed in the family which was associated to the novel missense variant c.1147A > G p.(Lys383Glu) in the prolyl 4-hydroxylase,alpha-polypeptide 2 (P4HA2) gene, which catalyzes the formation of 4-hydroxyproline residues in the collagen strands. In vitro studies demonstrated P4HA2 mRNA and protein reduced expression level as well as decreased collagen hydroxylation and deposition in mutated fibroblast primary cultures compared to healthy cell lines. This study suggests that P4HA2 mutations may lead to myopic axial elongation of eyeball as a consequence of quantitative and structural alterations of collagen. This is the first confirmatory study which associates a novel dominant missense variant in P4HA2 with myopia in Caucasian patients. Further studies in larger cohorts are advisable to fully clarify genotype-phenotype correlations

Chaos in neural networks with a nonmonotonic transfer function

Time evolution of diluted neural networks with a nonmonotonic transfer function is analitically described by flow equations for macroscopic variables. The macroscopic dynamics shows a rich variety of behaviours: fixed-point, periodicity and chaos. We examine in detail the structure of the strange attractor and in particular we study the main features of the stable and unstable manifolds, the hyperbolicity of the attractor and the existence of homoclinic intersections. We also discuss the problem of the robustness of the chaos and we prove that in the present model chaotic behaviour is fragile (chaotic regions are densely intercalated with periodicity windows), according to a recently discussed conjecture. Finally we perform an analysis of the microscopic behaviour and in particular we examine the occurrence of damage spreading by studying the time evolution of two almost identical initial configurations. We show that for any choice of the parameters the two initial states remain microscopically distinct.Comment: 12 pages, 11 figures. Accepted for publication in Physical Review E. Originally submitted to the neuro-sys archive which was never publicly announced (was 9905001