Risk information disclosure and its impact on analyst forecast accuracy

Este artigo tem como objetivo analisar a influência da divulgação de informações de risco na precisão das previsões de lucro de analistas financeiros para o mercado de ações espanhol. Para isso, foi realizada uma análise de regressão com dados em painel de uma amostra de empresas não financeiras listadas na Bolsa de Madri de 2010 a 2015. Os resultados mostram que as informações de risco não ajudam a reduzir os níveis de incerteza de analistas. Além disso, a análise separada das informações de risco verificadas e não verificadas confirma que não há relação entre as informações de risco publicadas e a percepção dos analistas sobre os níveis de risco das empresas.This paper aims to analyse the influence of risk information disclosure on the accuracy of financial analysts’ earnings forecasts for the Spanish stock market. To do this, we performed a regression analysis with panel data on a sample comprised of non-financial firms listed on the Madrid Stock Exchange from 2010 to 2015. The results of the study show that risk information disclosed by firms does not help to reduce analysts’ uncertainty levels nor enable them to make more accurate forecasts of future profits. Furthermore, separately testing verified and unverified risk information disclosure confirms that there is no relationship between the risk information disclosed and the perception that analysts have on companies’ levels of risk.Este trabajo tiene como objetivo analizar la influencia de la divulgación de información de riesgo en la precisión de las previsiones de beneficios de los analistas financieros para el mercado de valores español. Para ello, se ha realizado un análisis de regresión con datos de panel para una muestra de empresas no financieras que cotizan en la Bolsa de Madrid de 2010 a 2015. Los resultados muestran que la información de riesgo no ayuda a reducir los niveles de incertidumbre de los analistas. Adicionalmente, el análisis por separado de la información de riesgos verificada y no verificada confirma que no existe relación entre la información de riesgos publicada y la percepción que los analistas tienen sobre los niveles de riesgo de las empresas

Divulgación de información sobre riesgos y coste de los recursos propios: un enfoque bayesiano

El objetivo de este artículo es analizar la relación entre la divulgación de información sobre riesgo y el coste de capital de los recursos propios de empresas que cotizan en el mercado de capitales español. Este estudio utiliza un conjunto de 71 empresas que cotizaron en la Bolsa de Madrid entre 2010 y 2015; todas son empresas no financieras de las que había previsiones de beneficios. El problema se ha analizado bajo un enfoque de regresión lineal Bayesiana. Los resultados del estudio muestran que el coste de capital de los recursos propios y la información de riesgo divulgada no están relacionados cuando se toma la información de riesgos de manera global. Sin embargo, cuando la información de riesgo se divide en riesgos financieros y no financieros, se encuentra una relación positiva entre los riesgos financieros y el coste de capital de los recursos propios.This paper aims to analyze the relationship between risk information disclosure and the cost of equity of companies in the Spanish capital market. This study uses a set of 71 firms listed on Madrid stock exchange between 2010 and 2015; all of them are non-financial listed companies for which profit forecasts existed. The problem was analyzed using a Bayesian linear regression approach. The results show that cost of equity and disclosed risk information are not related if a global view of the latter is adopted. However, a positive relationship between financial risks and the cost of equity occurs when risk information is divided into financial and non-financial risks

Donor Reaction to Non-Financial Information Covering Social Projects in Nonprofits: A Spanish Case

The notion of accountability in nonprofits suggests that these organisations should disclose financial and non-financial practices following a holistic model. In practice, the interest of both managers and researchers has focused primarily on donors and financial disclosures, for funding and methodological reasons respectively. From the perspective of impact investment, all of them, government, beneficiaries, private donors, managers and volunteers are expected to make their decisions based on non-financial information as investors expecting social returns. However, to what extent does project information that demonstrates that the non-profit organisation has achieved its social mission actually matter? The main objective of this paper is to analyse whether the donations received by non-governmental organisations NGOs are related to the information disclosed on the projects undertaken. We perform our analysis separately for individual, private and public donors. Our results show that public donors are more interested in financial disclosures, private donors find information about outcomes and impacts to be most useful and individual donors do not tend to use non-financial information when it comes to making decisions about whether to donate or not

Divulgación de información sobre riesgos y coste de los recursos propios: un enfoque bayesiano

This paper aims to analyze the relationship between risk information disclosure and the cost of equity of companies in the Spanish capital market. This study uses a set of 71 firms listed on Madrid stock exchange between 2010 and 2015; all of them are non-financial listed companies for which profit forecasts existed. The problem was analyzed using a Bayesian linear regression approach. The results show that cost of equity and disclosed risk information are not related if a global view of the latter is adopted. However, a positive relationship between financial risks and the cost of equity occurs when risk information is divided into financial and non-financial risks.El objetivo de este artículo es analizar la relación entre la divulgación de información sobre riesgo y el coste de capital de los recursos propios de empresas que cotizan en el mercado de capitales español. Este estudio utiliza un conjunto de 71 empresas que cotizaron en la Bolsa de Madrid entre 2010 y 2015; todas son empresas no financieras de las que había previsiones de beneficios. El problema se ha analizado bajo un enfoque de regresión lineal Bayesiana. Los resultados del estudio muestran que el coste de capital de los recursos propios y la información de riesgo divulgada no están relacionados cuando se toma la información de riesgos de manera global. Sin embargo, cuando la información de riesgo se divide en riesgos financieros y no financieros, se encuentra una relación positiva entre los riesgos financieros y el coste de capital de los recursos propios

Clustered firms and solvency in the Spanish ceramics industry

There is a vast literature on the advantages of agglomeration due to positive externalities arising within industrial concentrations like clusters or industrial districts. Empirical studies strongly suggest these benefits when the focus is on innovation or transmission of knowledge. If this is the case, then it is reasonable to expect that cluster benefits should result in better financial performance and higher solvency for clustered firms soon or later. However, the limited empirical support for the link between clusters and economic performance provides contradictory results. This paper goes deeper into this matter and aims to measure the resulting effects on the solvency of firms in agglomeration economies. Empirical analysis has been applied to a sample of 609 firms in the Spanish ceramic tile cluster to test for statistically significant differences in the levels of solvency between clustered and isolated firms. Then we analyze whether firm size and phase of the economic cycle are relevant. Study results show significant differences between large and small clustered firms, suggesting that size does matter in terms of capturing the benefits of clustering from the perspective of solvency

Information on social impact at NGOs. The case of the Spanish charitable foundations

Within the Spanish legislation, the requirements for inf ormation disclosure depend on the kind of organization. Most of Spanish Non - Governmental Organizations (NGOs) work as charitable foundations (a legal categorization of non - profit organizations), organizations where we focus on. In this paper we analyse the requirements that Spanish law establishes for the disclosure of social impact information for charitable foundations. Social impact is, probably, the best benchmark to measure the performance of this kind of non - profit organizations. There must be underli ned that Spain is divided into several regions (known as “Autonomias”), and some of these regions have specific rules for charitable foundations. Therefore, depending on the region where a NGO (foundation) is settled on, the requirements for information di sclosure can vary. In this paper we compare the different requirements that regions establish for their NGOs (charitable foundations) in the field of disclosure of information on social impact. And we also reflect on the adequacy of this information to the requirements of the stakeholders (donors, beneficiaries, community, ....

Sector concentration risk: A model for estimating capital requirements

The 2004 Basel Committee on Banking Supervision Accord (known as Basel II) provides a common framework for banks to determine their minimum capitalrequirements for solvency purposes. For credit risk (the most important one for banking) Basel II uses an asymptotic single risk factor (ASRF) model and, as we demonstrate in the paper, assumes two fundamental hypotheses: Firstly, that there is only one risk factor common to all banks; and secondly, that the number of debtors in bank portfolios is high enough to ensure that no single debtor’s behaviour can have a significant impact on the portfolio value as a whole. This allows capitalrequirements to be estimated by using amodel based on the percentage of defaulting borrowers (x). The model only requires values for two variables: the probability of default and loss if default occurs. Using a 99% likelihood and assuming that all sectors are equally correlated, the model estimates x through the cumulative distribution function for the Gaussian distribution. But many bank portfolios do not fit these hypotheses, and therefore the ASRF model underestimates actual capitalrequirements. Thus, a surcharge for concentrationrisk is required. There are two kinds of concentrationrisk (sector and name concentrationrisk), each one corresponding to the violation of one of the above mentioned hypotheses. Supervisory authorities are currently developing models to incorporate this surcharge into banking solvency rules. In Spain, the Spanish Central Bank bases its surcharge proposal for sectorial concentration on the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI). In this paper we show that HHI treats all sectors as equally risky and propose an alternative index (CI) in which sectors are weighted according to risk. Moreover, our index also incorporates the relations between each pair of sectors (in the HHI framework no sectorial relationship is considered). Our proposal is based on an adjusted variance–covariance matrix, in which negative covariances have been equalled to 0. We demonstrate the HHI is a particular case of our proposed index, by means of simplifying hypotheses. As we will show, the proposed index has two fundamental properties: it is lower and upper bounded; and it decreases as concentration and/or risk decreases. These properties allow the index to be incorporated into bank risk management models. In this way bank estimations can improve upon those based on the supervisory model and, according to banking rules, can also be used for determining the capital surcharge for sectorial concentration

La información de riesgos en los estados financieros: situación actual y perspectivas futuras

El actual marco regulatorio ha cubierto una de las principales carencias denunciadas sobre la falta de información, en los estados financieros, de los riesgos a que se enfrentan las empresas en el desarrollo de sus actividades. A pesar de esta mejora, es necesario abordar diversas cuestiones todavía sin resolver, que permitan en el futuro un mejor conocimiento de la potencialidad de esta información para los usuarios. En el presente trabajo se reflexiona sobre los diferentes aspectos de la divulgación de información sobre riesgos como la obligatoriedad o voluntariedad de dicha información, su utilidad, el formato y la localización en el actual modelo contable.The current regulatory framework has filled one of the main gaps reported on the lack of information about the risks the companies face in the course of their activities concerning their financial statements. Despite this improvement, it is necessary to approach several unresolved issues that may allow users to better understand the potentiality of this information. This paper reflects on a number of aspects related to the divulgation of risk information, such as its compulsory or discretionary nature, its utility, its form, and its location in the current accounting model

Cantidad y calidad de información de riesgos divulgada por las empresas españolas: Un análisis en periodos diferentes del ciclo económico

La obligación de las empresas de informar en los estados financieros de los riesgos a los que se enfrentan ha dado lugar a la aparición de una emergente línea de investigación sobre el grado de divulgación de información sobre riesgos y de su calidad. En este sentido, el presente trabajo analiza la cantidad y la calidad de la información de riesgos para 2 periodos diferentes de ciclo económico: un periodo de bonanza económica (2006) y un periodo de crisis (2011). El estudio se realiza para el caso español utilizando empresas que cotizaban en el mercado continuo durante los años 2006 y 2011. Los resultados evidencian que las empresas presentan un mayor volumen de información sobre riesgos en el periodo de crisis, mientras que este aumento no se corresponde con un mayor grado de calidad de dicha información. Este mayor nivel de información de riesgos se debe a los riesgos financieros, sin detectar aumentos estadísticamente significativos en información de riesgos no financieros

Divulgación de información sobre riesgos y coste de los recursos propios: un enfoque bayesiano

El objetivo de este artículo es analizar la relación entre la divulgación de información sobre riesgo y el coste de capital de los recursos propios de empresas que cotizan en el mercado de capitales español. Este estudio utiliza un conjunto de 71 empresas que cotizaron en la Bolsa de Madrid entre 2010 y 2015; todas son empresas no financieras de las que había previsiones de beneficios. El problema se ha analizado bajo un enfoque de regresión lineal Bayesiana. Los resultados del estudio muestran que el coste de capital de los recursos propios y la información de riesgo divulgada no están relacionados cuando se toma la información de riesgos de manera global. Sin embargo, cuando la información de riesgo se divide en riesgos financieros y no financieros, se encuentra una relación positiva entre los riesgos financieros y el coste de capital de los recursos propios.This paper aims to analyze the relationship between risk information disclosure and the cost of equity of companies in the Spanish capital market. This study uses a set of 71 firms listed on Madrid stock exchange between 2010 and 2015; all of them are non-financial listed companies for which profit forecasts existed. The problem was analyzed using a Bayesian linear regression approach. The results show that cost of equity and disclosed risk information are not related if a global view of the latter is adopted. However, a positive relationship between financial risks and the cost of equity occurs when risk information is divided into financial and non-financial risks