Landmarkeder og småbønders tilpasning i Malawi

The general trend of agricultural land in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) continues to tilt towards land scarcity emanating from farm household-level population pressure and increase in urbanisation rates. Understanding the agricultural household decisions nexus or linkages in ownership and access to agricultural land and non-land factor of production is of interest in policy research for development and transformation of rural economies in SSA. This thesis contributes to this scholarly literature. The objective is to assess the changing trends in land transactions, opportunities and constraints in institutions that facilitate transfers and distribution of agricultural land among smallholder farm households in Malawi, a country in SSA. Four independent but related empirical research papers in chapters two to five of this thesis address this objective, with a summary of the overall policy implications in the introduction chapter. The first research paper assesses the important spatial and intertemporal changes in the land shadow values or prices that shape patterns of agricultural land valuation and transactions. Paper two analyses the dynamic nature of transaction costs in the land rental markets that can facilitate land transactions in a market. Paper three addresses the question of whether downside and upside lagged rainfall shock effects, can kick-start access to rented land among potential tenants. Lastly, the fourth paper jointly assesses the farm household decisions to either rent-in land or hire out labour for casual work in seasonal agricultural labour markets. Almost a decade after global policy discussions on large-scale land transfers in SSA, this thesis recommends the need to refocus land policy discussions to improving farm household-level access to agricultural land. The agricultural development policies and land use strategies should promote land campaigns that can improve low-cost access to land market information at the local or community level. These policies and strategies should also aim at easing the capital burden or liquidity constraints amongst potential tenant households in the agricultural sector. The land information dissemination initiatives can take advantage of the existing agricultural extension and information systems. On the other hand, initiatives like establishing a land bank or implementing subsidies, can ease the capital burden and support agricultural operations or other household needs among farming households. With recurring rainfall shocks in Malawi, these initiatives should also target rural areas most affected by downside rainfall shocks. Overall, reducing the friction in the land markets can sustain livelihoods and contribute to the transformation of both rural and urban areas, as land scarcity challenges continue in Malawi.Landbruksland er i ferd med å bli en stadig knappere faktor i Afrika sør for Sahara (SSA) på grunn av økende befolkningspress og urbanisering. Forståelse av bønders tilpasning, eierskap og tilgang til land og andre produksjonsfaktorer er viktig for politikkutforming for bedre utvikling og transformasjon av rurale områder i SSA. Denne avhandlingen er et bidrag til litteraturen på dette området. Målsettingen er å analysere endringene i eiendomsforhold, institusjonelle muligheter og skranker som påvirker transaksjoner og eierstruktur blant småbrukere i Malawi, et land i SSA. Målsettingen oppfylles gjennom fire uavhengige, men relaterte artikler i kapittel to til fem i avhandlingen, samt en introduksjon i kapittel en som ser på overordnede politikkimplikasjoner. Den første artikkelen studerer geografisk variasjon og endringer over tid i skyggepriser på land som mål på verdsetting av landbruksland og landtransaksjoner. Den andre artikkelen analyserer hvordan transaksjonskostnader endrer seg dynamisk i leiemarkeder for land som bidrar til omfordeling av land. Artikkel fire studerer hvordan klimasjokk i form av tørke og flom påvirker omsetningen av land gjennom leiemarkeder. Den siste artikkelen analyserer hvordan småbønders beslutninger om å leie ut arbeidskraft og leie inn land henger sammen. Nesten et tiår etter de globale diskusjonene om store landtransaksjoner i SSA knyttet til høye energi- og matpriser, anbefaler denne avhandlingen et nytt fokus på landpolitikk for å bedre tilgangen til land for bønder. Landbrukspolitikken og strategien bør fokusere på kampanjer som kan redusere kostnadene med å få tilgang til land gjennom bedre markedsinformasjon på lokalt nivå. Denne politikken og virkemidlene bør vektlegge å redusere kapitalbehovet og likviditetsskranker blant potensielle landfattige leietakere i landbrukssektoren. Spredningen av landinformasjon kan gjøres gjennom eksisterende veilednings- og informasjonssystemer. I tillegg kan en landbank eller subsidier brukes til å lette på kapitalskrankene for å bønder som renger det. Tiltak bør særlig rettes mot områder utsatt for klimasjokk som tørke. Ved å redusere friksjonen i landmarkedene kan bønder lettere tilpasse seg endrede rammebetingelser i rurale og urbane områder i Malawi

Measurement Error and Farm Size: Do Nationally Representative Surveys Provide Reliable Estimates?

We assess the reliability of measured farm sizes (ownership holdings) in the Living Standard Measurement Study – Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA) in Ethiopia and Malawi based on three survey rounds (2012, 2014, 2016) in Ethiopia and four rounds (2010, 2013, 2016, 2019) in Malawi. By using the balanced panel of households that participated in all the rounds, we utilized the within-household variation in reported and measured ownership holdings that, to a large extent, were measured with GPSs and/or with rope and compass. While this gives reliable measures of reported holdings, we detect substantial under-reporting of parcels over time within households. We find that the estimated farm sizes within survey rounds are substantially downward biased due to systematic and stochastic under-reporting of parcels. Such biases are substantial in the data from both countries, in all survey rounds, and in all regions of each country. Based on the analyses, we propose that the maximum within-household reported farm sizes over several survey rounds provide a more reliable proxy for the actual farm size distributions, as these maximum sizes are less likely to be biased due to parcel attrition. The ignorance of this non-classical measurement error is associated with a downward bias in the range of 20-30% in average and median farm sizes and an upward bias in the Gini-coefficients for farm size distributions. We propose ideas for follow-up research and improvements in collecting these data types and draw some policy implications

Are decision errors explaining hyperbolic discounting and non-linear probability weighting?

We study risky inter-temporal choice in a large random student sample (n=721) and a large rural sample (n=835) in Malawi. All respondents were exposed to the same 20 Multiple Choice Lists with a rapid elicitation method that facilitated the identification of near-future Certainty Equivalents of future risky prospects placed 6, 12, and 24 months into the future. The probabilities of winning in the risky future prospects varied and facilitated the estimation of probability weighting functions for the risky prospects placed 6 and 12 months into the future. The experiment is used to test whether decision errors can explain or be highly correlated with hyperbolic discounting and non-linear (inverse-S-shaped) probability weighting. We find evidence that decision errors are strongly correlated with hyperbolic discounting but do not find that decision errors are correlated with the strong inverse-S-shaped probability weighting (w(p)) patterns in our two samples. We find stronger S-shaped and more pessimistic w(p) functions for 6-month horizon risky prospects than for 12-month horizon risky prospects in both samples. Both patience and optimism bias contribute to subjects taking higher risks related to more risky distant future prospects. This can lead to the postponement of climate action

Does luck make people more optimistic and patient? - Lessons from an experiment with students and rural subjects in Malawi

We investigate how random luck in repeated variants of the risky investment game of Gneezy, Leonard, and List (2009); Gneezy and Potters (1997) influences risk-taking and discounting behavior in future risky prospects with probabilistic payouts one week, six, 12, and 24 months into the future. We test non-parametrically whether luck enhances risk-taking and patience (reduces the discount rate) in risky prospects with delayed payouts. To investigate whether luck influences probability weighting (w(p) function), we estimate structural models with two-parameter Prelec probability weighting functions to decompose risk-taking in prospects with potential payouts six and 12 months into the future. We find that luck results in more optimistic (reduces the Prelec β parameter) and less non-linear (inverse-S-shaped) (increases the Prelec α parameter) w(p) function. We assess this for two samples from Malawi: one is a random sample of university students (n=721), and the other is a random sample (n=835) of rural subjects with limited education. The students were found to be more patient but had similar probability weighting functions

How WEIRD are student samples? Lessons based on the trust game in Malawi

We have used the standard trust game on a random sample of university students (N=764) and a random sample of rural residents (N=834) in Malawi. The study identifies social preference types (Bauer, Chytilov´a, & Pertold-Gebicka, 2014; Fehr, Gl¨atzle-R¨utzler, & Sutter, 2013) and how these relate to variations in trust and trustworthiness based on the standard trust game (Berg, Dickhaut, & McCabe, 1995). The games are framed as within-class and within-university for students and as within-village and within-district for the rural sample. Many previous studies have found students to represent a lower bound in experimental studies of pro-social, trust, and trustworthiness behavior compared to broader population samples. Contrary to this, we found that trust and trustworthiness were significantly higher among university students than among villagers in rural communities in Malawi. We decomposed the trust and trustworthiness to investigate the relative importance of alternative explanations for their variation and to explain the unexpected gap in trust and trustworthiness between the student and rural samples. We were able to explain most of the gap for trustworthiness and about half of the gap for trust. Factors contributing significantly to the variation in trustworthiness were social preference type, reciprocity norm, age, and gender. Trust and trustworthiness varied systematically across social preference types. Altruistic and egalitarian types were more common among the students than in the rural population, and the students also demonstrated stronger moral obligations to reciprocate in the game. On average, students and rural respondents were too optimistic about the expected returns in the trust game; students were more optimistic than rural subjects on average, and expectations influenced trust investments. Risk tolerance also enhanced trust investments; students were slightly more risk tolerant than rural subjects. Women were found to be less trusting and less trustworthy than men, and there was a larger share of women in the rural sample. There were only modest gains in trust and trustworthiness in the within-class vs. within-university and the within-village vs. within-district frames

Knowledge, beliefs, perceptions, and behavior related to the corona (COVID-19) pandemic among university students in Malawi

This study is based on a survey of 764 students at the Lilongwe University of Agriculture and Natural Resources (LUANAR), Lilongwe, Malawi. It aims to provide evidence on the extent of exposure to the pandemic among university students, their knowledge and beliefs related to the corona virus and the ways they protect themselves against getting infected, the sources of information that they rely on, and other factors influencing their knowledge, beliefs, and behavior. The study was undertaken in the period of February-March 2022 during which the fourth wave of the pandemic in the country took place and in this period the omicron variant of the virus dominated. We investigate factors associated with the extent of knowledge about the corona virus and COVID risk perceptions, information updating behavior, preferences for alternative protective measures, especially vaccination and use of facemasks. We also assessed beliefs about the effects of vaccination, trust in vaccines, and passive and active demand for vaccination. Finally, we investigate facemask use intensity and factors influencing the likelihood of infection and COVID-19 disease based on subjective self-reported experiences

Irrigation Development, Land Tenure and Climate Shocks among Farmers in the Flood Plain of Malawi: A Pre-Analysis Plan and Documentation for Ethical Approval by Institutional Review Board at NMBU

This is a plan for the final component of the “Experiments for Development of Climate Smart Agriculture” (SMARTEX), which is a collaborative research and capacity-building program with School of Economics and Business (SEB) at NMBU, Ås, Norway and Lilongwe University of Agriculture and Natural Resources (LUANAR), Malawi, as the main partners. The Project builds on the long-term Collaboration between SEB-NMBU and LUANAR, including under NORHED I, the project Climate-Smart Natural Resource Management and Policy (CLISNARP). LUANAR has established its own PhD-program in Economics and is in strong need to further develop and strengthen its capacity to run this program. SEB-NMBU will contribute to this within the area of Behavioral and Experimental Economics, Climate Economics and Land Tenure and Property Markets. Especially the use of experimental methods will be applied to issues associated with finding climate smart solutions for sustainable intensification of agriculture in Malawi. Malawi is a very densely populated country that is highly dependent on agriculture. Food security is a very important policy objective for the country which faces severe climatic risks in terms of frequent droughts and floods. Researchers from SEB-NMBU will in collaboration with two postdocs and senior researchers from LUANAR carry out joint research within two specific areas. The first is to assess ways to transform the existing input subsidy program (FISP) to a program that more strongly stimulates Climate Smart Agriculture through reducing storage losses and land degradation. The second component will focus on land and water rights in relation to irrigation agriculture which holds potential but where institutional challenges need more attention. The project has a Malawian postdoc in each of these areas. These two postdocs received their PhDs from SEB-NMBU under CLISNARP (NORHED I). The project will help equip LUANAR to do more pro-active experimental research on these high priority policy areas. The project will establish a strong database through targeted surveys combined with field experiments that will serve as the basis for joint research by the postdocs in team with senior researchers from SEB-NMBU and LUANAR. The Pre-Analysis Plan presented here for ethical approval at HH-NMBU is for the second component of this project where Sarah Tione is the postdoc researcher. When the project started in 2021 neither NMBU or LUANAR had IRBs for ethical approval of research projects. However, as pre-registration and ethical approval have become the new international standard we have hereby prepared such a document for the remaining part of the project. The plan is to implement this fieldwork from early June 2024. The project will end July 31st, 2025 but the researchers involved expect to continue the analyses of the data for publication and dissemination purposes after that

Religion, perceptions, and behavior during the corona/COVID- 19 pandemic among university students in Malawi

This study investigates the covid risk perceptions, information updating behavior related to the pandemic, use of protective measures, especially facemasks, and the demand for vaccines among university students in Malawi. In particular, the study focuses on how religion and belief in prayer as a protective device against covid-19 are affecting perceptions and behavior related to the pandemic. Our findings are from a stratified random sample of 764 students from 48 classes spread across different disciplines and study years for both undergraduate and postgraduate. One-tenth of the students believed that prayer was their most important measure to protect themselves against the pandemic. Students belonging to the Seventh Day Adventists (Baptist) and Pentecostal religions perceived the covid risk to be significantly lower than other students. Students that considered prayer to be the most important protective device also perceived the covid risk to be lower than others; and updated themselves significantly less frequently about the status of the pandemic than other students. Whereas students that perceived their personal health to be at risk updated themselves more frequently about the pandemic. The information updating frequency related to the pandemic and covid risk perceptions were positively correlated with facemask use, including facemask use in church. Those who believed in prayer as a protective device were using facemasks less frequently. Students belonging to the Seventh Day Adventists and Pentecostals were less likely to use facemasks in church. These two student groups represent close to 30% of our sample; and these two groups are less likely to have tried to get vaccinated or having gotten vaccinated. These two groups are therefore at higher risk themselves in future corona waves and may also, due to their beliefs and behavior enhance the spread of the virus. Our findings may be useful for targeting efforts to promote more corona safe behavior

The Predictive Power of Luck: Luck and Risk-Taking in a Repeated Risky Investment Game

Can luck predict risk-taking behavior in games of chance? Economists have not widely studied this issue although overconfidence, optimism-, and pessimism bias have received substantial attention in recent years. In this study, we investigate how good and bad luck outcomes in a simple repeated risky investment game affect risk-taking behavior in the following rounds of the same game where the outcome (luck) in the game is determined by the throwing of a die after each round. The outcome of the previous round's die-throw is known when the subjects decide how risky their next choice in the game will be. A sample of 718 university students is used as subjects in the game in a recursive within-subject design. The results demonstrate a strong impact of luck on risk-taking behavior that lasts not only to the next round but also into another two follow-up rounds, with cumulative effects. A time delay of 1-2 months between Round 1 and Round 2 did not wipe out the luck effect and it was only slightly weaker than the luck effect from Round 2 to Rounds 3 and 4 that followed immediately after Round 2. Many recent studies have shown that risk preferences respond to recent shocks. This study indicates that random shocks such as luck in previous games (states of nature) influence risk-taking behavior. Our study suggests that the causal mechanism goes through subjective beliefs in luck based on past experiences that influence expectations and thereby risk-taking behavior

Anthropogenic Land Use Change and Adoption of Climate Smart Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa

Compelling evidence in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) shows that Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) has a positive impact on agricultural productivity. However, the uptake of CSA remains low, which is related to anthropogenic, or human-related, decisions about CSA and agricultural land use. This paper assesses households’ decisions to allocate agricultural land to CSA technologies across space and over time. We use the state-contingent theory, mixed methods, and mixed data sources. While agricultural land is increasing, forest land is decreasing across countries in SSA. The results show that household decisions to use CSA and the extent of agricultural land allocation to CSA remain low with a negative trend over time in SSA. Owned land and accessing land through rental markets are positively associated with allocating land to CSA technologies, particularly where land pressure is high. Regarding adaptation, experiencing rainfall shocks is significantly associated with anthropogenic land allocation to CSA technologies. The country policy assessment further supports the need to scale up CSA practices for adaptation, food security, and mitigation. Therefore, scaling up CSA in SSA will require that agriculture-related policies promote land tenure security and land markets while promoting climate-smart farming for food security, adaptation, and mitigation