Performance of the 2017 and 2010 Revised McDonald Criteria in Predicting MS Diagnosis After a Clinically Isolated Syndrome: A MAGNIMS Study

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: To compare the performance of the 2017 revisions to the McDonald criteria with the 2010 McDonald criteria in establishing MS diagnosis and predicting prognosis in patients with clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) suggestive of multiple sclerosis (MS). METHODS: CSF examination, brain and spinal cord MRI obtained ≤5 months from CIS onset, and a follow-up brain MRI acquired within 15 months from CIS onset were evaluated in 785 CIS patients from 9 European centers. Date of second clinical attack and of reaching Expanded Disability Status Score (EDSS) ≥ 3.0, if they occurred, were also collected. Performance of the 2017 and 2010 McDonald criteria for dissemination in space (DIS), time (DIT) (including oligoclonal bands assessment) and DIS + DIT for predicting a second clinical attack (clinically definite [CD] MS) and EDSS ≥ 3.0 at follow-up was evaluated. Time to MS diagnosis for the different criteria was also estimated. RESULTS: At follow-up (median = 69.1 months), 406/785 CIS patients developed CDMS. At 36 months, the 2017 DIS + DIT criteria had higher sensitivity (0.83 vs 0.66), lower specificity (0.39 vs 0.60) and similar area under the curve values (0.61 vs 0.63). Median time to MS diagnosis was shorter with the 2017 vs the 2010 or CDMS criteria (2017 revision = 3.2; 2010 revision = 13.0; CDMS = 58.5 months). The 2 sets of criteria similarly predicted EDSS ≥ 3.0 milestone. Three periventricular lesions improved specificity in patients ≥45 years. DISCUSSION: The 2017 McDonald criteria showed higher sensitivity, lower specificity and similar accuracy in predicting CDMS compared to 2010 McDonald criteria, while shortening time to diagnosis of MS. CLASSIFICATION OF EVIDENCE: This study provides Class II evidence that the 2017 McDonald Criteria more accurately distinguish CDMS in patients early after a CIS when compared to the 2010 McDonald criteria

Prediction of a multiple sclerosis diagnosis in patients with clinically isolated syndrome using the 2016 MAGNIMS and 2010 McDonald criteria: a retrospective study

BACKGROUND: In 2016, the Magnetic Resonance Imaging in Multiple Sclerosis (MAGNIMS) network proposed modifications to the MRI criteria to define dissemination in space (DIS) and time (DIT) for the diagnosis of multiple sclerosis in patients with clinically isolated syndrome (CIS). Changes to the DIS definition included removal of the distinction between symptomatic and asymptomatic lesions, increasing the number of lesions needed to define periventricular involvement to three, combining cortical and juxtacortical lesions, and inclusion of optic nerve evaluation. For DIT, removal of the distinction between symptomatic and asymptomatic lesions was suggested. We compared the performance of the 2010 McDonald and 2016 MAGNIMS criteria for multiple sclerosis diagnosis in a large multicentre cohort of patients with CIS to provide evidence to guide revisions of multiple sclerosis diagnostic criteria. METHODS: Brain and spinal cord MRI and optic nerve assessments from patients with typical CIS suggestive of multiple sclerosis done less than 3 months from clinical onset in eight European multiple sclerosis centres were included in this retrospective study. Eligible patients were 16-60 years, and had a first CIS suggestive of CNS demyelination and typical of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis, a complete neurological examination, a baseline brain and spinal cord MRI scan obtained less than 3 months from clinical onset, and a follow-up brain scan obtained less than 12 months from CIS onset. We recorded occurrence of a second clinical attack (clinically definite multiple sclerosis) at months 36 and 60. We evaluated MRI criteria performance for DIS, DIT, and DIS plus DIT with a time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. FINDINGS: Between June 16, 1995, and Jan 27, 2017, 571 patients with CIS were screened, of whom 368 met all study inclusion criteria. At the last evaluation (median 50·0 months [IQR 27·0-78·4]), 189 (51%) of 368 patients developed clinically definite multiple sclerosis. At 36 months, the two DIS criteria showed high sensitivity (2010 McDonald 0·91 [95% CI 0·85-0·94] and 2016 MAGNIMS 0·93 [0·88-0·96]), similar specificity (0·33 [0·25-0·42] and 0·32 [0·24-0·41]), and similar area under the curve values (AUC; 0·62 [0·57-0·67] and 0·63 [0·58-0·67]). Performance was not affected by inclusion of symptomatic lesions (sensitivity 0·92 [0·87-0·96], specificity 0·31 [0·23-0·40], AUC 0·62 [0·57-0·66]) or cortical lesions (sensitivity 0·92 [0·87-0·95], specificity 0·32 [0·24-0·41], AUC 0·62 [0·57-0·67]). Requirement of three periventricular lesions resulted in slightly lower sensitivity (0·85 [0·78-0·90], slightly higher specificity (0·40 [0·32-0·50], and similar AUC (0·63 [0·57-0·68]). Inclusion of optic nerve evaluation resulted in similar sensitivity (0·92 [0·87-0·96]), and slightly lower specificity (0·26 [0·18-0·34]) and AUC (0·59 [0·55-0·64]). AUC values were also similar for DIT (2010 McDonald 0·61 [0·55-0·67] and 2016 MAGNIMS 0·61 [0·55-0·66]) and DIS plus DIT (0·62 [0·56-0·67] and 0·64 [0·58-0·69]). INTERPRETATION: The 2016 MAGNIMS criteria showed similar accuracy to the 2010 McDonald criteria in predicting the development of clinically definite multiple sclerosis. Inclusion of symptomatic lesions is expected to simplify the clinical use of MRI criteria without reducing accuracy, and our findings suggest that needing three lesions to define periventricular involvement might slightly increase specificity, suggesting that these two factors could be considered during further revisions of multiple sclerosis diagnostic criteria. FUNDING: UK MS Society, National Institute for Health Research University College London Hospitals Biomedical Research Centre, Dutch MS Research Foundation

Recombinant interferon beta or glatiramer acetate for delaying conversion of the first demyelinating event to multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Immunomodulatory drugs have been shown to be only modestly effective in clinically definite relapsing remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS). It has been hypothesized that their efficacy could be higher if used at the first appearance of symptoms, that is in the clinically isolated syndromes (CIS) suggestive of demyelinating events, a pathology which carries a high risk to convert to clinically definite MS (CDMS). OBJECTIVES: The objective of this review was to assess the effects of immunomodulatory drugs compared to placebo in adults in preventing conversion from CIS to CDMS which means the prevention of a second attack. SEARCH STRATEGY: We searched the Cochrane MS Group Trials Register (June 2007), Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL)The Cochrane Library Issue 3, 2007, MEDLINE (January 1966 to June 2007), EMBASE (January 1974 to June 2007) and reference lists of articles. We also contacted manufacturers and researchers in the field. SELECTION CRITERIA: The trials selected were double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomised trials of CIS patients treated with immunomodulatory drugs. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Study selection have been independently done by two reviewers. Two further reviewers independently assessed trial quality and extracted and analysed data. Study authors were contacted for additional informations. Adverse effects information was collected from the trials. MAIN RESULTS: Only three trials tested the efficacy of interferon (IFN) beta including a total of 1160 participants (639 treatment, 521 placebo); no trial tested the efficacy of glatiramer acetate (GA). The metanalyses showed that the proportion of patients converting to CDMS was significantly lower in IFN beta-treated than in placebo-treated patients both after one year (pooled OR 0.53; 95% CI, 0.40 to 0.71; p <0.0001) as well as after two years of follow-up (pooled OR 0.52; 95% CI, 0.38 to 0.70; p <0.0001). Early treatment with IFN beta was associated with the side effect profile reported by the randomised controlled trials with this drug. Since side effects were reported with some heterogeneity in the three studies the metanalysis was possible only for the frequency of serious adverse events, not significantly different in IFN beta-treated or placebo-treated patients. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: The efficacy of IFN beta treatment on preventing the conversion from CIS to CDMS was confirmed over two years of follow-up. Since patients had some clinical heterogeneity (length of follow-up, clinical findings of initial attack), it could be useful for the clinical practice to further analyse the efficacy of IFN beta treatment in different patient subgroups

Recombinant interferon beta or glatiramer acetate for delaying conversion of the first demyelinating event to multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Immunomodulatory drugs have been shown to be only modestly effective in clinically definite relapsing remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS). It has been hypothesized that their efficacy could be higher if used at the first appearance of symptoms, that is in the clinically isolated syndromes (CIS) suggestive of demyelinating events, a pathology which carries a high risk to convert to clinically definite MS (CDMS). OBJECTIVES: The objective of this review was to assess the effects of immunomodulatory drugs compared to placebo in adults in preventing conversion from CIS to CDMS which means the prevention of a second attack. SEARCH STRATEGY: We searched the Cochrane MS Group Trials Register (June 2007), Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL)The Cochrane Library Issue 3, 2007, MEDLINE (January 1966 to June 2007), EMBASE (January 1974 to June 2007) and reference lists of articles. We also contacted manufacturers and researchers in the field. SELECTION CRITERIA: The trials selected were double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomised trials of CIS patients treated with immunomodulatory drugs. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Study selection have been independently done by two reviewers. Two further reviewers independently assessed trial quality and extracted and analysed data. Study authors were contacted for additional informations. Adverse effects information was collected from the trials. MAIN RESULTS: Only three trials tested the efficacy of interferon (IFN) beta including a total of 1160 participants (639 treatment, 521 placebo); no trial tested the efficacy of glatiramer acetate (GA). The metanalyses showed that the proportion of patients converting to CDMS was significantly lower in IFN beta-treated than in placebo-treated patients both after one year (pooled OR 0.53; 95% CI, 0.40 to 0.71; p <0.0001) as well as after two years of follow-up (pooled OR 0.52; 95% CI, 0.38 to 0.70; p <0.0001). Early treatment with IFN beta was associated with the side effect profile reported by the randomised controlled trials with this drug. Since side effects were reported with some heterogeneity in the three studies the metanalysis was possible only for the frequency of serious adverse events, not significantly different in IFN beta-treated or placebo-treated patients. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: The efficacy of IFN beta treatment on preventing the conversion from CIS to CDMS was confirmed over two years of follow-up. Since patients had some clinical heterogeneity (length of follow-up, clinical findings of initial attack), it could be useful for the clinical practice to further analyse the efficacy of IFN beta treatment in different patient subgroups

Scoring treatment response in patients with relapsing multiple sclerosis

BACKGROUND: We employed clinical and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) measures in combination, to assess patient responses to interferon in multiple sclerosis. OBJECTIVE: To optimize and validate a scoring system able to discriminate responses to interferon treatment in patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS). METHODS: Our analysis included two large, independent datasets of RRMS patients who were treated with interferons that included 4-year follow-up data. The first dataset ("training set") comprised of 373 RRMS patients from a randomized clinical trial of subcutaneous interferon beta-1a. The second ("validation set") included an observational cohort of 222 RRMS patients treated with different interferons. The new scoring system, a modified version of that previously proposed by Rio et al., was first tested on the training set, then validated using the validation set. The association between disability progression and risk group, as defined by the score, was evaluated by Kaplan Meier survival curves and Cox regression, and quantified by hazard ratios (HRs). RESULTS: The score (0-3) was based on the number of new T2 lesions (>5) and clinical relapses (0,1 or 2) during the first year of therapy. The risk of disability progression increased with higher scores. In the validation set, patients with score of 0 showed a 3-year progression probability of 24%, while those with a score of 1 increased to 33% (HR = 1.56; p = 0.13), and those with score greater than or equal to 2 increased to 65% (HR = 4.60; p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: We report development of a simple, quantitative and complementary tool for predicting responses in interferon-treated patients that could help clinicians make treatment decisions

N-Acetylaspartate and neurofilaments as biomarkers of axonal damage in patients with progressive forms of multiple sclerosis

Primary and secondary progressive forms of multiple sclerosis (PPMS and SPMS) have different path- ological characteristics. However, it is unknown whether neurodegenerative mechanisms are shared. We measured cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) levels of neurofilament (Nf) light and heavy isoforms and N-acetylaspartic acid (NAA) in 21 PP, 10 SPMS patients and 15 non-inflammatory neuro- logical disease controls (NINDC). Biomarkers were related to Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) and Multiple Sclerosis Severity Score (MSSS) over a long period of follow-up [median (interquartile range) 9 (5.5–12.5) years] in 19 PPMS and 4 SPMS patients, and to T2 lesion load, T1 lesion load, and brain parenchymal fraction at the time of lumbar puncture. Nf light was higher in PPMS (p<0.005)and Nf heavy was increased in both SPMS and PPMS (p<0.05 and p<0.01) compared to NINDC, but were comparable between the two MS subtypes. Nf heavy was a predictor of the ongoing disability measured by MSSS (R2 = 0.17, b = 0.413; p<0.05). Conversely, Nf light was the only predictor of the EDSS annual increase (R2 = 0.195, b = 0.441; p<0.05). The frequency of abnormal biomarkers did not differ between the two MS progressive subtypes. Our data suggest that PP and SPMS likely share similar mechanisms of axonal damage. Moreover, Nf heavy can be a biomarker of ongoing axonal damage. Conversely, Nf light can be used as a prognostic marker for accumulating disability suggesting it as a good tool for possible treatment monitoring in the progressive MS forms

Assessing response to interferon-β in a multicenter dataset of patients with MS

Objective: To provide new insights into the role of markers of response to interferon-β therapy in multiple sclerosis (MS) in a multicenter setting, focusing on the relevance of MRI lesions in combination with clinical variables. Methods: A large multicenter clinical dataset was collected within the Magnetic Resonance Imaging in MS (MAGNIMS) network. This included a large cohort of patients with relapsing-remitting MS on interferon-β treatment, MRI and clinical assessments during the first year of treatment, and clinical follow-up of at least 2 additional years. Heterogeneity among centers was assessed before pooling the data. The association of 1-year MRI or clinical relapses with the risk of treatment failure (defined as Expanded Disability Status Scale [EDSS] worsening or treatment switch for inefficacy) and of EDSS worsening alone was evaluated using multivariate Cox models. Results: A pooled dataset of 1,280 patients with relapsing-remitting MS from 9 MAGNIMS centers was analyzed. The risk of failure had a relevant increase with 1 relapse (hazard ratio [HR] 1.84, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.39-2.44, p &lt; 0.001) and ≥3 new T2 lesions (HR 1.55, 95% CI 0.92-2.60, p 0.09). In patients without relapses and less than 3 new T2 lesions, the 3-year risk of failure and EDSS worsening were 17% and 15%; in patients with 1 relapse or ≥3 new T2 lesions, the risks were 27% and 22%; in patients with both conditions or more than 1 relapse, the risks were 48% (p &lt; 0.001) and 29% (p &lt; 0.001). Conclusions: Substantial MRI activity, particularly if in combination with clinical relapses, during the first year of treatment with interferon-β indicates significant risk of treatment failure and EDSS worsening in the short term