Scientific knowledge and scientific uncertainty in bushfire and flood risk mitigation: literature review

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Scientific Diversity, Scientific Uncertainty and Risk Mitigation Policy and Planning (RMPP) project aims to investigate the diversity and uncertainty of bushfire and flood science, and its contribution to risk mitigation policy and planning. The project investigates how policy makers, practitioners, courts, inquiries and the community differentiate, understand and use scientific knowledge in relation to bushfire and flood risk. It uses qualitative social science methods and case studies to analyse how diverse types of knowledge are ordered and judged as salient, credible and authoritative, and the pragmatic meaning this holds for emergency management across the PPRR spectrum. This research report is the second literature review of the RMPP project and was written before any of the case studies had been completed. It synthesises approximately 250 academic sources on bushfire and flood risk science, including research on hazard modelling, prescribed burning, hydrological engineering, development planning, meteorology, climatology and evacuation planning. The report also incorporates theoretical insights from the fields of risk studies and science and technology studies (STS), as well as indicative research regarding the public understandings of science, risk communication and deliberative planning. This report outlines the key scientific practices (methods and knowledge) and scientific uncertainties in bushfire and flood risk mitigation in Australia. Scientific uncertainties are those ‘known unknowns’ and ‘unknown unknowns’ that emerge from the development and utilisation of scientific knowledge. Risk mitigation involves those processes through which agencies attempt to limit the vulnerability of assets and values to a given hazard. The focus of this report is the uncertainties encountered and managed by risk mitigation professionals in regards to these two hazards, though literature regarding natural sciences and the scientific method more generally are also included where appropriate. It is important to note that while this report excludes professional experience and local knowledge from its consideration of uncertainties and knowledge, these are also very important aspects of risk mitigation which will be addressed in the RMPP project’s case studies. Key findings of this report include: Risk and scientific knowledge are both constructed categories, indicating that attempts to understand any individual instance of risk or scientific knowledge should be understood in light of the social, political, economic, and ecological context in which they emerge. Uncertainty is a necessary element of scientific methods, and as such risk mitigation practitioners and researchers alike should seek to ‘embrace uncertainty’ (Moore et al., 2005) as part of navigating bushfire and flood risk mitigation

Design and operation methods for better performing heat recovery loops

Inter-plant integration via a heat recovery loop (HRL) is an economic method for increasing total site process energy efficiency of semi-continuous processes. Results show that both the constant storage temperature approach and variable storage temperature approach have merit. Depending on the mix of source and sink streams attached, it may be advantageous to change the operation of an existing HRL from a constant temperature storage to a variable temperature storage. To realise the full benefits of this change in operation, a redistribution of the existing heat exchanger area may be needed

Area targeting and storage temperature selection for heat recovery loops

Inter-plant heat integration across a large site can be achieved using a Heat Recovery Loop (HRL). In this paper the relationship between HRL storage temperatures, heating and cooling utility savings (heat recovery) and total HRL exchanger area is investigated. A methodology for designing a HRL based on a ΔTmin approach is compared to three global optimisation approaches where heat exchangers are constrained to have either the same Number of Heat Transfer Units (NTU), Log-Mean Temperature Difference (LMTD) or no constraints (actual global optimum). Analysis is performed using time averaged flow rate and temperature data. Attention is given to understanding the actual temperature driving force of the HRL heat exchangers compared to the apparent driving force as indicated by the composite curves. The cold storage temperature is also varied to minimise the total heat exchanger area. Results for the same heat recovery level show that the ΔTmin approach is effective at minimising total area to within 5 % of the unconstrained global optimisation approach. The study also demonstrates the efficiency of the ΔT min approach to HRL design compared to the other methods which require considerable computational resources

An investigation of milk powder deposition on parallel fins

One method to reduce the energy consumption of industrial milk spray dryers is to recover waste heat from the exhaust dryer air. A significant challenge associated with this opportunity is the air contains a small amount of powder that may deposit on the face and surfaces of a recuperator. This paper introduces a novel lab based test that simulates powder deposition on a bank of parallel plate fins at exhaust dryer air conditions. The fin bank acts like the face of a typical finned tube row in a recuperator. The aim of this study is to look at how deposition on the front of fins is affected by the air conditions. Results show similar characteristics to other milk powder deposition studies that exhibit a dramatic increase in deposition once critical stickiness levels are reached. As powder deposits on the face of the fins, the pressure drop across the bank increases until eventually an asymptote occurs, at which point the rates of deposition and removal are similar. For very sticky conditions, deposition on the face of the fins can cause a rise in the pressure drop by as much as 65%. The pressure drop has also been successfully related to the percentage of open frontal area of the fins with and without deposition. Deposition inside and at the rear of the fin bank was found to be minimal

Integration of solar heating into heat recovery loops using constant and variable temperature storage

Solar is a renewable energy that can be used to provide process heat to industrial sites. Solar is extremely variable and to use it reliably thermal storage is necessary. Heat recovery loops (HRL) are an indirect method for transferring heat from one process to another using an intermediate fluid (e.g. water, oil). With HRL’s thermal storage is also necessary to effectively meet the stop/start time dependent nature of the multiple source and sink streams. Combining solar heating with HRL’s makes sense as a means of reducing costs by sharing common storage infrastructure and pipe transport systems and by lowering nonrenewable hot utility demand. To maximise the value of solar in a HRL, the means of controlling the HRL needs to be considered. In this paper, the HRL example and design method of Walmsley et al. (2013) is employed to demonstrate the potential benefits of applying solar heating using the HRL variable temperature storage (VTS) approach and the conventional HRL constant temperature storage (CTS) approach. Results show the VTS approach is superior to the CTS approach for both the non-solar and solar integration cases. When the pinch is around the hot storage temperature the CST approach is constrained and the addition of solar heating to the HRL decreases hot utility at the expenses of increased cold utility. For the VTS approach the hot storage pinch shifts to a cold storage pinch and increased heat recovery is possible for the same exchanger area without solar. With solar the VTS approach can maintain the same heat recovery while also reducing hot utility still further due to the presence of solar, but only with additional area. When the pinch is located around the cold storage temperature, solar heating can be treated as an additional heat source and the benefits of CTS and VTS are comparable

Area targeting and storage temperature selection for heat recovery loops

Inter-plant heat integration across a large site can be achieved using a Heat Recovery Loop (HRL). In this paper the relationship between HRL storage temperatures, heating and cooling utility savings (heat recovery) and total HRL exchanger area is investigated. A methodology for designing a HRL based on a ΔTmin approach is compared to three global optimisation approaches where heat exchangers are constrained to have either the same Number of Heat Transfer Units (NTU), Log-Mean Temperature Difference (LMTD) or no constraints (actual global optimum). Analysis is performed using time averaged flow rate and temperature data. Attention is given to understanding the actual temperature driving force of the HRL heat exchangers compared to the apparent driving force as indicated by the composite curves. The cold storage temperature is also varied to minimise the total heat exchanger area. Results for the same heat recovery level show that the ΔTmin approach is effective at minimising total area to within 5 % of the unconstrained global optimisation approach. The study also demonstrates the efficiency of the ΔT min approach to HRL design compared to the other methods which require considerable computational resources

Options for solar thermal and heat recovery loop hybrid system design

Integration of solar thermal energy into low temperature pinch processes, like dairy and food and beverage processes is more economic when combined with a Heat Recovery Loop (HRL) to form a hybrid inter-plant heat recovery system. The hybrid system shares common infrastructure and improves solar heat utilisation through direct solar boosting of the HRL intermediate fluid’s temperature and enthalpy either through parallel or series application. The challenge of dealing with variable solar energy supply is less of a problem in the hybrid system because the HRL with its associated storage acts as an enthalpy buffer which absorbs temperature and flow rate fluctuations on both the heat supply (including solar) and heat demand side simultaneously. Three options for integrating solar thermal directly into HRLs are applied to a large multi-plant dairy case study to demonstrate the hot utility savings potential of the Solar-HRL hybrid system. HRL performance with Variable Temperature Storage (VTS) and solar is dynamically modelled with historical plant data. The series configuration is shown to be consistently better than parallel configuration for the same thermal storage volumes and similar heat exchanger areas

An Eternal Flame: The Elemental Governance of Wildfire’s Pasts, Presents and Futures

Views of fire in the contemporary physical sciences arguably accord with Heraclitus’ proposal that ‘all things are an exchange for fire, and fire for all things, as goods for gold and gold for goods.’ Fire is a media, as John Durham Peters has stated, a species of transformative biochemical reactions between the flammable gases found in air, such as oxygen, and those found in fuels, such as plants. Inspired by an ignition source, these materials react and transform themselves and their surrounds into light and heat energy, carbon dioxide, water vapour, char and much else besides. Fire is conjunctural, durational and transformative. Fire is a dialectician, at once consuming living and dead organic matter and providing both the space and ingredients for new and renewed organic life. In this article, we draw upon our experience of combustible contexts—Australia, Canada and the Philippines—to consider the diverse ways in which fire is today framed as a social problem, an ecological process, an ancient tool, a natural disaster, a source of economic wealth and much more. In this way, we seek to explore the value and limits of ‘elemental thinking’ in relation to the planetary predicaments described by ‘the Anthropocene’

Introduction: An Elemental Anthropocene

An introduction to An Elemental Anthropocene.&nbsp

Introduction: An elemental anthropocene

An introduction to An Elemental Anthropocene.&nbsp