53 research outputs found
Incorporation of carbon dioxide production and transport module into a Soil-Plant-Atmosphere continuum model
Carbon dioxide release from agricultural soils is influenced by multiple factors, including soil (soil properties, soil-microbial respiration, water content, temperature, soil diffusivity), plant (carbon assimilation, rhizosphere respiration), atmosphere (climate, atmospheric carbon dioxide), etc. Accurate estimation of the carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes in the soil and soil respiration (CO2 flux between soil and atmosphere) requires a process-based modeling approach that accounts for the influence of all these factors. In this study, a module for CO2 production via root and microbial respiration and diffusion-based carbon dioxide transport is developed and integrated with MAIZSIM (a process-based maize crop growth model that accounts for detailed soil and atmospheric processes) based on a modularized architecture. The developed model simulates root respiration based on root mass, root age, soil water content, and temperature. Microbial respiration is based on the soil microbial processes by accounting for the carbon dynamics in the litter, humus, and organic fertilizer pools as moderated by the soil water content, temperature, microbial synthesis, humification, and decomposition of the carbon pools. Case studies presented include scenarios with different soil, climate, and carbon pools that simulated the soil respiration with an average index of agreement of 0.73 and root mean squared error of 11.4 kg carbon ha-1 between the measured and simulated soil respiration. The modular architecture used in the model development facilitates easy integration with other existing crop models and future modifications
Cotton Yield Prediction Using Random Forest
The cotton industry in the United States is committed to sustainable
production practices that minimize water, land, and energy use while improving
soil health and cotton output. Climate-smart agricultural technologies are
being developed to boost yields while decreasing operating expenses. Crop yield
prediction, on the other hand, is difficult because of the complex and
nonlinear impacts of cultivar, soil type, management, pest and disease,
climate, and weather patterns on crops. To solve this issue, we employ machine
learning (ML) to forecast production while considering climate change, soil
diversity, cultivar, and inorganic nitrogen levels. From the 1980s to the
1990s, field data were gathered across the southern cotton belt of the United
States. To capture the most current effects of climate change over the previous
six years, a second data source was produced using the process-based crop
model, GOSSYM. We concentrated our efforts on three distinct areas inside each
of the three southern states: Texas, Mississippi, and Georgia. To simplify the
amount of computations, accumulated heat units (AHU) for each set of
experimental data were employed as an analogy to use time-series weather data.
The Random Forest Regressor yielded a 97.75% accuracy rate, with a root mean
square error of 55.05 kg/ha and an R2 of around 0.98. These findings
demonstrate how an ML technique may be developed and applied as a reliable and
easy-to-use model to support the cotton climate-smart initiative.Comment: 6 pages, 2 figures, 3 table
Improving the cotton simulation model, GOSSYM, for soil, photosynthesis, and transpiration processes
GOSSYM, a mechanistic, process-level cotton crop simulation model, has a two-dimensional (2D) gridded soil model called Rhizos that simulates the below-ground processes daily. Water movement is based on gradients of water content and not hydraulic heads. In GOSSYM, photosynthesis is calculated using a daily empirical light response function that requires calibration for response to elevated carbon dioxide ( CO2). This report discusses improvements made to the GOSSYM model for soil, photosynthesis, and transpiration processes. GOSSYM’s predictions of below-ground processes using Rhizos are improved by replacing it with 2DSOIL, a mechanistic 2D finite element soil process model. The photosynthesis and transpiration model in GOSSYM is replaced with a Farquhar biochemical model and Ball-Berry leaf energy balance model. The newly developed model (modified GOSSYM) is evaluated using field-scale and experimental data from SPAR (soil–plant–atmosphereresearch) chambers. Modified GOSSYM better predicted net photosynthesis (root mean square error (RMSE) 25.5 versus 45.2 g CO2 m−2 day−1; index of agreement (IA) 0.89 versus 0.76) and transpiration (RMSE 3.3 versus 13.7 L m−2 day−1; IA 0.92 versus 0.14) and improved the yield prediction by 6.0%. Modified GOSSYM improved the simulation of soil, photosynthesis, and transpiration processes, thereby improving the predictive ability of cotton crop growth and development
Modeling vapor transfer in soil water and heat simulations: A modularized, partially-coupled approach
Coupled water and heat transfer models are widely used to analyze soil water content and temperature dynamics, evaluate agricultural management systems, and support crop growth modelling. In relatively dry soils, vapor transfer, rather than liquid water flux, becomes the main pathway for water redistribution. However, in some modularized soil simulators, e.g., 2DSOIL (Timlin et al., 1996), vapor transfer is not included, which may induce errors in soil water and heat modelling. Directly embedding vapor transfer into existing water and heat transfer modules may violate the modularized architecture of those simulators. Therefore, the objectives of this study are to design a vapor transfer model, evaluate its performance, and implement it as a separate module in a coupled soil water and heat simulator, e.g., 2DSOIL. The efficacy of the vapor transfer model is evaluated by comparing the simulated soil water content and temperature before and after including the new vapor transfer model, and the soil water content and temperature simulated with the standard Philip and de Vries (1957) model. By implementing vapor transfer as a separate module in 2DSOIL, modifications to existing water and heat transfer modules can be minimized and the modularized model architecture can be maintained. Numerical examples of 2DSOIL with the new vapor transfer model are presented to illustrate the effects of vapor flux on soil water and temperature redistributions. In conclusion, the new vapor transfer model provides an effective and easy-to-use method to account for the effects of vapor transfer on coupled soil water and heat simulations
Phosphorus Nutrition Affects Temperature Response of Soybean Growth and Canopy Photosynthesis
In nature, crops such as soybean are concurrently exposed to temperature (T) stress and phosphorus (P) deficiency. However, there is a lack of reports regarding soybean response to T × P interaction. To fill in this knowledge-gap, soybean was grown at four daily mean T of 22, 26, 30, and 34°C (moderately low, optimum, moderately high, and high temperature, respectively) each under sufficient (0.5 mM) and deficient (0.08 mM) P nutrition for the entire season. Phosphorus deficiency exacerbated the low temperature stress, with further restrictions on growth and net photosynthesis. For P deficient soybean at above optimum temperature (OT) regimes, growth, and photosynthesis was maintained at levels close to those of P sufficient plants, despite a lower tissue P concentration. P deficiency consistently decreased plant tissue P concentration ≈55% across temperatures while increasing intrinsic P utilization efficiency of canopy photosynthesis up to 147%, indicating a better utilization of tissue P. Warmer than OTs delayed the time to anthesis by 8–14 days and pod development similarly across P levels. However, biomass partitioning to pods was greater under P deficiency. There were significant T × P interactions for traits such as plant growth rates, total leaf area, biomass partitioning, and dry matter production, which resulted a distinct T response of soybean growth between sufficient and deficient P nutrition. Under sufficient P level, both lower and higher than optimum T tended to decrease total dry matter production and canopy photosynthesis. However, under P-deficient condition, this decrease was primarily observed at the low T. Thus, warmer than optimum T of this study appeared to compensate for decreases in soybean canopy photosynthesis and dry matter accumulation resulting from P deficiency. However, warmer than OT appeared to adversely affect reproductive structures, such as pod development, across P fertilization. This occurred despite adaptations, especially the increased P utilization efficiency and biomass partitioning to pods, shown by soybean under P deficiency
A piecewise analysis model for electrical conductivity calculation from time domain reflectometry waveforms
Electrical conductivity (EC) represents a material’s ability to conduct electric current. Soil EC has been used as a soil quality attribute related to soil pH, nutrient availability, crop suitability and soil microbial activity. Time domain reflectometry (TDR) estimates soil water content and EC based on the propagation/reflection and energy attenuation of voltage signals along a waveguide. To maximize the data use efficiency, waveform interpretations for simultaneous water content and EC determination are needed. A tangent line/bounded mean oscillation (TL-BMO) model is available to estimate soil water content from TDR waveforms, but an associated EC model is not yet available. The objectives of this study are (1) to introduce a piecewise analysis method for TDR waveform interpretation, and (2) to develop a model for EC computation along a TDR waveguide under homogeneous water content. The proposed model sequentially fits a TDR waveform for the coaxial cable, the connection, and the waveguide according to the transmission line equation. A TDR waveguide can be discretized into multiple successive pieces for the determination of EC variations along the waveguide. Simplifications of the fitting procedures via (1) existing models, e.g., TL-BMO and Topp et al. (1988) models, and (2) analysis of waveforms obtained from controlled conditions, e.g., in distilled water under room temperature (~20 °C) and air pressure (~101 kPa), are also applied. Accuracy and stability of the proposed model are tested via observed TDR waveforms obtained under uniform EC conditions but perturbated with a range of noise levels. EC values computed with only one discretized piece (i.e., no discretization along the waveguide) are consistent with the theoretical EC values, and the results are robust for all of the tested noise levels. As the number of discretized pieces and the noise levels increase, numerical oscillations in the results increase. The maximum relative errors are \u3c20%, occurring when the mean power of noise is as large as the mean power of waveforms (0 dB noise). Flexibility of the proposed model is tested using waveforms simulated under spatially varying EC, and the EC variations along a TDR waveguide can be detected by the proposed model. In summary, the proposed model provides reliable EC estimations, and it can evaluate uniform or varying EC distributions along a TDR waveguide under uniform moisture conditions. This model can be imbedded into the TL-BMO model for integrated water content and EC determination for commonly measured (251-scanning point) TDR waveforms
From Too Much to Too Little: How the central U.S. drought of 2012 evolved out of one of the most devastating floods on record in 2011
Table of Contents
Section 1: Introduction....................................................................... 1
Section 2: Regional Drought Perspective................................. 2
Section 3: State Drought Perspectives........................................ 3
Section 3.1: Colorado........................................................................... 20
Section 3.2: Illinois.................................................................. 25
Section 3.3: Indiana................................................. 29
Section 3.4: Iowa...................... 36
Section 3.5: Kansas............................................................... 42
Section 3.6: Kentucky............................................................................ 46
Section 3.7: Michigan.............................. 52
Section 3.8: Minnesota............................................................ 58
Section 3.9: Missouri..................................................... 63
Section 3.10: Nebraska................................................. 67
Section 3.11: North Dakota............................................ 73
Section 3.12: Ohio................................................... 79
Section 3.13: South Dakota..................................... 85
Section 3.14: Wyoming........................................... 96
Section 4: Conclusions.............................................................. 9
How do various maize crop models vary in their responses to climate change factors?
Potential consequences of climate change on crop production can be studied using mechanistic crop simulation models. While a broad variety of maize simulation models exist, it is not known whether different models diverge on grain yield responses to changes in climatic factors, or whether they agree in their general trends related to phenology, growth, and yield. With the goal of analyzing the sensitivity of simulated yields to changes in temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations [CO2], we present the largest maize crop model intercomparison to date, including 23 different models. These models were evaluated for four locations representing a wide range of maize production conditions in the world: Lusignan (France), Ames (USA), Rio Verde (Brazil) and Morogoro (Tanzania). While individual models differed considerably in absolute yield simulation at the four sites, an ensemble of a minimum number of models was able to simulate absolute yields accurately at the four sites even with low data for calibration, thus suggesting that using an ensemble of models has merit. Temperature increase had strong negative influence on modeled yield response of roughly 0.5 Mg ha 1 per C. Doubling [CO2] from 360 to 720 lmol mol 1 increased grain yield by 7.5% on average across models and the sites. That would therefore make temperature the main factor altering maize yields at the end of this century. Furthermore, there was a large uncertainty in the yield response to [CO2] among models. Model responses to temperature and [CO2] did not differ whether models were simulated with low calibration information or, simulated with high level of calibration information
Do maize crop models catch the impact of future [CO2] on maize yield and water use?
Do maize crop models catch the impact of future [CO2] on maize yield and water use?. iCROPM2016 International Crop Modelling Symposiu
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