Contextual batting and bowling in limited overs cricket

Cricket is a sport for which many batting and bowling statistics have been proposed. However, a feature of cricket is that the level of aggressiveness adopted by batsmen is dependent on match circumstances. It is therefore relevant to consider these circumstances when evaluating batting and bowling performances. This paper considers batting performance in the second innings of limited overs cricket when a target has been set. The runs required, the number of overs completed and the wickets taken are relevant in assessing the batting performance. We produce a visualization for second innings batting which describes how a batsman performs under different circumstances. The visualization is then reduced to a single statistic “clutch batting” which can be used to compare batsmen. An analogous approach is then provided for bowlers based on the symmetry between batting and bowling, and we define the statistic “clutch bowling”

Tactics for Twenty20 cricket

This paper explores two avenues for the modification of tactics in Twenty20 cricket. The first idea is based on the realisation that wickets are of less importance in Twenty20 cricket than in other formats of cricket (e.g. one-day cricket and Test cricket). A consequence is that batting sides in Twenty20 cricket should place more emphasis on scoring runs and less emphasis on avoiding wickets falling. On the flip side, fielding sides should place more emphasis on preventing runs and less emphasis on taking wickets. Practical implementations of this general idea are obtained by simple modifications to batting orders and bowling overs. The second idea may be applicable when there exists a sizeable mismatch between two competing teams. In this case, the weaker team may be able to improve its win probability by increasing the variance of run differential. A specific variance inflation technique which we consider is increased aggressiveness in batting

Differences in biochemical, gas exchange and hydraulic response to water stress in desiccation tolerant and sensitive fronds of the fern Anemia caffrorum

Desiccation tolerant plants can survive extreme water loss in their vegetative tissues. The fern Anemia caffrorum produces desiccation tolerant (DT) fronds in the dry season and desiccation sensitive (DS) fronds in the wet season, providing a unique opportunity to explore the physiological mechanisms associated with desiccation tolerance. Anemia caffrorum plants with either DT or DS fronds were acclimated in growth chambers. Photosynthesis, frond structure and anatomy, water relations and minimum conductance to water vapour were measured under well-watered conditions. Photosynthesis, hydraulics, frond pigments, antioxidants and abscisic acid contents were monitored under water deficit. A comparison between DT and DS fronds under well-watered conditions showed that the former presented higher leaf mass per area, minimum conductance, tissue elasticity and lower CO2 assimilation. Water deficit resulted in a similar induction of abscisic acid in both frond types, but DT fronds maintained higher stomatal conductance and upregulated more prominently lipophilic antioxidants. The seasonal alternation in production of DT and DS fronds in A. caffrorum represents a mechanism by which carbon gain can be maximized during the rainy season, and a greater investment in protective mechanisms occurs during the hot dry season, enabling the exploitation of episodic water availability.This work was supported by the projects CTM2014-53902-C2-1-P from the Ministerio de Economia y Competitividad (MINECO, Spain) and the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) and PGC2018-093824-B-C41/PGC2018-093824-B-C44 from the Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovacion y Universidades (MCIU, Spain) and the ERDF; and the Basque Government (grant UPV/EHU IT-1018-16, Spain). MN was supported by the MINECO and the European Social Fund (predoctoral fellowship BES-2015-072578). AVP-C was supported by the Ministerio de Educacion, Cultura y Deporte (MECD; pre-doctoral fellowship FPU-02054). MIA was supported by a pre-doctoral grant from the Basque Government. We thank the technical support for microscopy preparation provided by the Universitat de Valencia (Seccio de Microscopia Electrnica, SCSIE), Dr. Ferran Hierro (UIB, Serveis Cientificotecnics) and Margalida Roig Oliver (UIB). JMF provided funding for work conducted in South Africa from her South African Department of Science and Innovation, National Research Foundation Research Chair, grant no. 9840

Measuring the complexity of general practice consultations:development and validation of a complexity measure

Background: The complexity of general practice consultations may be increasing and varies in different settings. A measure of complexity is required to test these hypotheses. Aim: To develop a valid measure of general practice consultation complexity applicable to routine medical records. Design and setting: Delphi study to select potential indicators of complexity followed by a cross-sectional study in English general practices to develop and validate a complexity measure. Method: The online Delphi study over two rounds identified potential indicators of consultation complexity. The cross-sectional study used an age–sex stratified random sample of patients and general practice face-to-face consultations from 2013/2014 in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. The authors explored independent relationships between each indicator and consultation duration using mixed-effects regression models, and revalidated findings using data from 2017/2018. The proportion of complex consultations in different age–sex groups was assessed. Results: A total of 32 GPs participated in the Delphi study. The Delphi panel endorsed 34 of 45 possible complexity indicators after two rounds. After excluding factors because of low prevalence or confounding, 17 indicators were retained in the cross-sectional study. The study used data from 173 130 patients and 725 616 face-to-face GP consultations. On defining complexity as the presence of any of these 17 factors, 308 370 consultations (42.5%) were found to be complex. Mean duration of complex consultations was 10.49 minutes, compared to 9.64 minutes for non-complex consultations. The proportion of complex consultations was similar in males and females but increased with age. Conclusion: The present consultation complexity measure has face and construct validity. It may be useful for research, management and policy, and for informing decisions about the range of resources needed in different practices

Factors associated with consultation rates in general practice in England, 2013-2014:a cross-sectional study

Background Workload in general practice has risen during the last decade, but the factors associated with this increase are unclear. Aim To examine factors associated with consultation rates in general practice. Design and setting A cross-sectional study. A sample of 304,937 patients registered at 316 English practices between 2013 and 2014 was drawn from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Method We linked age, sex, ethnicity, smoking status, and deprivation measures with practice level data on staffing, rurality, training practice status, and Quality and Outcomes Framework performance. We conducted multilevel analyses of patient consultation rates. Results Consultations were grouped into three types: General practitioner or nurse (All), general practitioner (GP), and nurse. Non-smokers consulted less than current smokers (All: RR=0.88, 95% CI: 0.87 to 0.89; GP: 0.88 [0.87 to 0.89]; nurse: 0.91 [0.90 to 0.92]. Consultation rates were higher for those in the most deprived quintile compared to the least deprived quintile (All: 1.18 [1.16 to 1.19]; GP: 1.17 [1.15 to 1.19]; nurse: 1.13 [1.11 to 1.15]. For all three consultation types, consultation rates increased with age, female sex, and varied by ethnicity. Rates in practices with between >8 and Conclusions Our analyses show consistent trends in factors related to consultation rates in general practice across three types of consultation. These data can be used inform the development of more sophisticated staffing models, and resource allocation formulae.</p

Patient-level and practice-level factors associated with consultation duration:a cross-sectional analysis of over one million consultations in English primary care

Objectives: Consultation duration has previously been shown to be associated with patient, practitioner, and practice characteristics. However, previous studies were conducted outside the UK, considered only small numbers of GP consultations, or focused primarily on practitioner level characteristics. We aimed to determine the patient and practice level factors associated with duration of GP and nurse consultations in UK primary care. Design and setting: Cross sectional data were obtained from English general practices contributing to the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) linked to data on patient deprivation and practice staffing, rurality, and Quality and Outcomes Framework (QOF) achievement. Participants: 218,304 patients, from 316 English general practices, consulting from 1st April 2013 to 31st March 2014. Analysis: Multilevel mixed effects models described the association between consultation duration and patient and practice-level factors (patient age, gender, smoking status, ethnic group, deprivation and practice rurality, number of full time equivalent GPs/nurses, list size, consultation rate, quintile of overall QOF achievement, and training status). Results: Mean duration of face-to-face GP consultations was 9.24 minutes and 5.32 minutes for telephone consultations. Nurse face-to-face and telephone consultations lasted 9.70 and 5.73 minutes on average, respectively. Longer GP consultation duration was associated with female patient gender, practice training status and older patient age. Shorter duration was associated with higher deprivation and consultation rate. Longer nurse consultation duration was associated with male patient gender, older patient age and ever smoking; and shorter duration with higher consultation rate. Observed differences in duration were small (e.g. GP consultations with female patients compared to male patients were 8 seconds longer on average). Conclusions: Small observed differences in consultation duration indicate that patients are treated similarly regardless of background. Increased consultation duration may be beneficial for older or comorbid patients, but the benefits and costs of increased consultation duration require further study.</p

The comorbidity burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus: patterns, clusters and predictions from a large English primary care cohort

Background: Presence of additional chronic conditions has significant impact on the treatment and management of type-2 diabetes (T2DM). Little is known about the patterns of comorbidities in this population. The aims of this study are to quantify comorbidity patterns in people with T2DM, to estimate the prevalence of six chronic conditions in 2027 and to identify clusters of similar conditions. Methods: We used the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) linked with the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) data to identify patients diagnosed with T2DM between 2007 and 2017. 102,394 people met the study inclusion criteria. We calculated the crude and age-standardised prevalence of 18 chronic conditions present at and after the T2DM diagnosis. We analysed longitudinally the 6 most common conditions and forecasted their prevalence in 2027 using linear regression. We used agglomerative hierarchical clustering to identify comorbidity clusters. These analyses were repeated on subgroups stratified by gender and deprivation. Results: More people living in the most deprived areas had ≥1 comorbidities present at the time of diagnosis (72% of females; 64% of males) compared to the most affluent areas (67% of females; 59% of males). Depression prevalence increased in all strata, and was more common in the most deprived areas. Depression was predicted to affect 33% of females and 15% of males diagnosed with T2DM in 2027. Moderate clustering tendencies were observed, with concordant conditions grouped together and some variations between groups of different demographics. Conclusions: Comorbidities are common in this population and high between-patient variability in comorbidity patterns emphasises the need for patient-centred healthcare. Mental health is a growing concern and there is a need for interventions that target both physical and mental health in this population

Patient consultation rate and clinical and NHS outcomes:A cross-sectional analysis of English primary care data from 2.7 million patients in 238 practices

Supplementary results. This file contains additional tables presenting results from the analyses which could not be included in the main manuscript. (DOCX 29 kb