Uncertainty of climate policies and implications for economics and finance: an evolutionary economics approach

The assessment of the socio-economic and financial impacts of climate change represents a main source of uncertainty for policy makers and investors. However, traditional climate economics and financial risk models are not properly equipped to consider the characteristics of climate risks and the opportunities from climate-alignment, being constrained by equilibrium conditions and linearity of impacts, as well as by representative agents and intertemporal optimization. Given the closing window of opportunity to achieve the 2 °C target, there is an urgent need for a new wave of models able to embrace uncertainty and complexity deriving not only from climate impacts on socio-economic systems, but also from their reaction. In this regard, approaches rooted on evolutionary economics and complexity science could provide complementary insights to traditional climate economics models. This special issue contributes to fill in this knowledge gap by collecting nine papers applying evolutionary and complex systems approaches, and agent-based and network models to climate change economics, presented at the Special Session of the Research Area “Environment-Economics Interactions” of the European Association of Evolutionary Political Economy (EAEPE)'s conference 2016. By introducing conceptual and methodological innovations in climate economics and finance, the nine articles analyse the conditions for effective climate policies and financial instruments to align countries to the global climate targets, compared to the costs of inaction. This information is crucial to support decision-makers in the analysis of climate-finance policies and instruments to foster the transition to a sustainable and inclusive low-carbon economy

Response to the Parliamentary Energy and Climate Change Committee inquiry into low carbon network infrastructure

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Drivers and effects of digitalisation on energy demand in low carbon scenarios

The world is currently facing two socio-technical transitions: shifting to a low-carbon society, and a digital revolution. Despite some claims to the contrary, evidence suggests that spread and adoption of ICT does not automatically lead to reduction in energy demand, if this stimulates new energy-using practices or wider economic growth. Despite this policy challenge, the two transitions are often considered separately. This study examines potential drivers of reductions or increases in energy demand due to digitalisation identified in recent leading global and UK net zero transitions scenarios. These include direct effects, indirect and rebound effects relating to home energy use and transport, and effects on economic growth. The scenarios are first analysed in relation to how they are situated in relation to different framing assumptions: (1) the relative focus on decarbonising energy supply or managing energy demand; (2) a focus on green growth or shifting to a focus on wellbeing (or even degrowth); (3) the extent to which they assume dominant business models led by large ICT firms, or alternative business models which empower communities and users; and (4) the extent to which they envisage key roles for ICT in relation to automation for optimising energy supply and demand or for empowering agency of users. Specific direct, indirect and economic growth effects of digitalisation on energy demand are then identified, which reflect these and other projections in the scenarios. These imply that the future pathways adopted for digitalisation will have a significant impact on future energy demand and hence on the feasibility and acceptability of achieving net zero goals. This suggests opportunities for further research and improving policy interactions between these two transitions, and stimulating greater public debate on the different framings for an ICT-driven low carbon transition

The impact of teleworking on domestic energy use and carbon emissions: an assessment for England

Despite decades of research on the environmental impacts of teleworking, most studies have neglected building-related energy use and emissions. Even fewer studies have explored the relative influence of different variables on those emissions. This study therefore explores the building-related emissions from teleworking in England using data from the UK Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) database over the period 2008 to 2022. We use a building energy model to estimate the additional emissions associated with different patterns of teleworking, including variations in heated area and internal temperature. We combine our results with a separate set of estimates of the transport-related emissions. We also employ global sensitivity analysis to identify the relative importance of different variables. We find that English teleworkers have significantly higher emissions than non-teleworkers. Considering both transport and domestic building emissions, working from home 3-5 days/week leads to 3% less to 17% more carbon emissions than conventional work patterns depending on the heating area, heating system heating time and required temperature. We find that heating area has the biggest influence on building emissions, followed by the number of heating hours, wall insulation and the efficiency performance and carbon intensity of the heating system

Reconciling qualitative storylines and quantitative descriptions: an iterative approach

Energy system transition research has been experimenting with the integration of qualitative and quantitative analysis due to the increased articulation it provides. Current approaches tend to be heavily biased by qualitative or quantitative methodologies, and more often are aimed toward a single academic discipline. This paper proposes an interdisciplinary methodology for the elaboration of energy system socio-technical scenarios, applied here to the low carbon transition of the UK. An iterative approach was used to produce quantitative descriptions of the UK's energy transition out to 2050, building on qualitative storylines or narratives that had been developed through the formal application of a transition pathways approach. The combination of the qualitative and quantitative analysis in this way subsequently formed the cornerstone of wider interdisciplinary research, helping to harmonise assumptions, and facilitating ‘whole systems’ thinking. The methodology pulls on niche expertise of contributors to map and investigate the governance and technological landscape of a system change. Initial inconsistencies were found between energy supply and demand and addressed, the treatment of gas generation, capacity factors, total installed generating capacity and installation rates of renewables employed. Knowledge gaps relating to the operation of combined heat and power, sources of waste heat and future fuel sources were also investigated. Adopting the methodological approach to integrate qualitative and quantitative analysis resulted in a far more comprehensive elaboration than previously, providing a stronger basis for wider research, and for deducing more robust insights for decision-making. It is asserted that this formal process helps build robust future scenarios not only for socio political storylines but also for the quantification of any qualitative storyline

Social trends and new geographies

This opening chapter sets the scene for subsequent more detailed analysis of many of the issues raised here. We start by discussing in Section 1 the tension in the current era between humanity’s simultaneously standing at “the peak of possibilities” while also, possibly, facing an abyss due to growing inequalities, political conflict and the ever-present danger of climate catastrophe. We turn in Sections 2 and 3 to the main social and spatial transformations that have characterised the last twenty five years. Again we see advances and regressions, above all uneven and fragile development. These sections set the scene for a consideration of three specific challenges: the tension between capitalism and democracy (Section 4); that between production and reproduction with an emphasis on gender relations (Section 5); and that between demographic change and sustainability (Section 6). We then conclude with a sober appraisal of the prospects for the emergence of viable agents for social transformation (Section 7) before making some general remarks on the challenges and possibilities for social progress (Section 8). The underlying hypothesis for social progress is that development is, and always has been, contradictory. Poverty amongst plenty, individual advancement versus collective regression and repression intertwined with liberty. If the industrial era emerged through what Karl Polanyi called a “great transformation” are we headed towards, or do we need a ‘new’ great transformation? We posit a general need for the market to be re-embedded in society if social progress is not to be halted or even reversed. In terms of the political order we find that the recent transformations of democracy and capitalism have had hugely ambiguous features. It is not wrong to say that the planet is currently both more democratic and more affluent than it was three decades ago. But the ways in which such progress has come about endangers not only future progress, it even puts past progress at risk. In political terms, the increasing diffusion of democracy means that more people across the globe have a say on the collective matters that concern them. But under current circumstances, their participation may not be able to reach the kind of decisions that one would understand as collective self-determination. In economic terms, material affluence is being created in unprecedented forms and volume. But, first, this affluence is so unevenly generated and distributed that poverty and hardship do not disappear and are even reproduced in new and possibly more enduring forms. And second, the continuing production of this material affluence may/will endanger the inhabitability of the planet, or large parts of it, even in the short- or medium-term. We have seen our task as one of offering a complex assessment of the current situation that has not been over-determined by our own political preferences. The positive and negative components of the picture we offer are constitutive of the ambivalent nature of the social progress. We are acutely aware that the world looks very different according to our standpoint geographically, socially and by our social and cultural identity. So we have not posed a false unity in terms of outlook. We consider it useful to pose the key questions as clearly as possible from a collective perspective that includes many diverse disciplinary and subject stand-points. We also seek to avoid an analysis determined by either a depressed Weltanschauung that sees only catastrophe ahead given recent political developments or what some have called a Polanyian Pollyanna tendency that is emotionally committed to positive social transformation regardless of the evidence. Quite simply, neither pessimism nor optimism are adequate diagnostic tools. This is particularly the case when we turn to the possible agents of the ‘new’ social transformation we advocate. While we show the decline of 20th-century agents of social change we also try to bring to life the new potential actors for redistribution, social justice and recognition

Assessment of breath volatile organic compounds in acute cardiorespiratory breathlessness: a protocol describing a prospective real-world observational study

Introduction Patients presenting with acute undifferentiated breathlessness are commonly encountered in admissions units across the UK. Existing blood biomarkers have clinical utility in distinguishing patients with single organ pathologies but have poor discriminatory power in multifactorial presentations. Evaluation of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in exhaled breath offers the potential to develop biomarkers of disease states that underpin acute cardiorespiratory breathlessness, owing to their proximity to the cardiorespiratory system. To date, there has been no systematic evaluation of VOC in acute cardiorespiratory breathlessness. The proposed study will seek to use both offline and online VOC technologies to evaluate the predictive value of VOC in identifying common conditions that present with acute cardiorespiratory breathlessness. Methods and analysis A prospective real-world observational study carried out across three acute admissions units within Leicestershire. Participants with self-reported acute breathlessness, with a confirmed primary diagnosis of either acute heart failure, community-acquired pneumonia and acute exacerbation of asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease will be recruited within 24 hours of admission. Additionally, school-age children admitted with severe asthma will be evaluated. All participants will undergo breath sampling on admission and on recovery following discharge. A range of online technologies including: proton transfer reaction mass spectrometry, gas chromatography ion mobility spectrometry, atmospheric pressure chemical ionisation-mass spectrometry and offline technologies including gas chromatography mass spectroscopy and comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography-mass spectrometry will be used for VOC discovery and replication. For offline technologies, a standardised CE-marked breath sampling device (ReCIVA) will be used. All recruited participants will be characterised using existing blood biomarkers including C reactive protein, brain-derived natriuretic peptide, troponin-I and blood eosinophil levels and further evaluated using a range of standardised questionnaires, lung function testing, sputum cell counts and other diagnostic tests pertinent to acute disease. Ethics and dissemination The National Research Ethics Service Committee East Midlands has approved the study protocol (REC number: 16/LO/1747). Integrated Research Approval System (IRAS) 198921. Findings will be presented at academic conferences and published in peer-reviewed scientific journals. Dissemination will be facilitated via a partnership with the East Midlands Academic Health Sciences Network and via interaction with all UK-funded Medical Research Council and Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council molecular pathology nodes. Trial registration number NCT0367299