Foxon, Tim

Pearson, Peter J. G.

Online Research @ Cardiff

1I C , U A D  &  H e r i o t - W a t t C O S T  6 2 4  W o r k s h o p  1 0 / 0 3 / 0 0Multi Objective Decision Making: a guidebook approachPeter Pearson & Tim Foxon,  Environmental Policy & ManagementGroup, T H Huxley School, Imperial College, LondonAbstractThe paper describes one recently-completed and one ongoing research project. The first project, theReference Sustainability System, is a network model that investigated new technological andresource management strategies to enhance urban sustainability. Based on data for  the domesticsector in London, it developed modules relating to energy, paper and waste paper, piped water andbottled water. This research demonstrated the potential value of going beyond modelling,  to thedevelopment of decision supporting tools/frameworks that take into account user needs andstakeholder perspectives. The second part of the paper describes the current project, whichdevelops a ‘guidebook’ approach to multi objective decision making by water authorities. Theguidebook will offer a framework that aids the incorporation of sustainability assessment indecision making. It will provide guides to the selection and use of a range of environmental, social,technical and economic criteria, as well as to the tools and assessment methodologies that canassemble or generate appropriate data. Then, through two case studies, the use of the guidebook toaid decision making will be demonstrated.I C , U A D  &  H e r i o t - W a t t C O S T  6 2 4  W o r k s h o p  1 0 / 0 3 / 0 0Multi Objective Decision Making:a guidebook approachPeter Pearson & Tim Foxon Environmental Policy & Management GroupT H Huxley SchoolImperial College2I C , U A D  &  H e r i o t - W a t t C O S T  6 2 4  W o r k s h o p  1 0 / 0 3 / 0 0The Structure of the Paper• The paper describes one recently-completed and one ongoingcollaborative research project.• The first project – the Reference Sustainability System – is anetwork model that investigates new technology & resourcemanagement strategies to enhance urban sustainability.• The second project relates to the development of a ‘guidebook’approach to water authority decision-making.• Both projects have received support from the UK Engineering &Physical Sciences Research CouncilI C , U A D  &  H e r i o t - W a t t C O S T  6 2 4  W o r k s h o p  1 0 / 0 3 / 0 0Background: The Reference Sustainability System• A network model constructed by Imperial College with the LondonResearch Centre• The model investigated technology & resource management strategiesto enhance urban sustainability• Four related modules:Ø energy; piped water; bottled water; paper & waste paper• Allowing for:Ø  waste management, recycling & re-useØ emissions of air, water & solid wastes• Addressed domestic/household sector in London• Conventional & novel technologies and  varying efficiencies3I C , U A D  &  H e r i o t - W a t t C O S T  6 2 4  W o r k s h o p  1 0 / 0 3 / 0 0The Modules• The modules were used to assess the system-wide impacts ofnew technologies or resource management strategies applied atdifferent stages in the life-cycle:•  the energy module assesses supply-side technologies and end-use efficiency measures•  the piped water module assesses demand managementmeasures; and•  the bottled water and paper modules focus on options at thewaste management stage.I C , U A D  &  H e r i o t - W a t t C O S T  6 2 4  W o r k s h o p  1 0 / 0 3 / 0 0Scenario Outline (Figure 1)• Scenarios were created for the introduction of new technologiesand resource management practices at different life-cycle stages• Baseline and alternative scenarios were compared, at a point intime and/or over time• Sensitivities to different rates of penetration of new technologiesand resource management practices were explored• As were sensitivities to different estimates of environmentalexternality valuation4I C , U A D  &  H e r i o t - W a t t C O S T  6 2 4  W o r k s h o p  1 0 / 0 3 / 0 0       Figure 1: The Reference Sustainability System: Scenario OutlineLife-Cycle StagesEnergy,        Water Resource,&  MaterialPaper FlowsScenario Option Scenario and Sensitivity Analysis Runs[Energy] No ext. values Low ext. values High ext. values ExternalityScenario 1:                 BaselineEP65 data EP65 data EP65 data ValuationScenario 2:           Increase Photo-VoltaicsLow Pen.           Med. Pen.       High Pen.Low Pen.           Med. Pen.       High Pen.Low Pen.           Med. Pen.       High Pen.Technology PenetrationScenario 3:Scenario 4:Scenario 5:Scenario 6:Scenario 7:     Composite    Scenarios Energy                Bottled WaterWaste ManagementDemand-SideSupply-SideI C , U A D  &  H e r i o t - W a t t C O S T  6 2 4  W o r k s h o p  1 0 / 0 3 / 0 0Reference Sustainability System: The bottled mineral water moduleResource Conversion 1 Conversion 2 Conversion 3 Transport End-use Service409 kl/day 229 (kl/day)87 t/day 8 (t/day)98 (kl/day)59 (t/day)1266 kl/day 01013 (kl/day)00 0 0 0 0 0 kl/day(t/day) 0 (t/day) 0 8 00 0 t/day 00 0 t/day000 t/day00 t/day0615 535 608 1013 1111 1111 kl/day(t/day) (t/day) 0 608 667 667 t/day0 kl/day0 t/day180 0 -180 t/day-200 t/day-180-20-387 t/day-220-147Indigenous source of mineral waterPlastic raw materialsGlass raw materialsCollected mineral waterPlastic processingGlass processingPlastic bottle manufactureLow-grade resaleGlass bottle manufacturePlastic bottled waterPB waste recyclingPB waste landfillPB waste incinerationGlass bottled waterGB waste reuseGB waste recyclingGB waste landfillPlastic bottled water distributionPB community collection pointPB waste kerbside collectionGlass bottled water distributionGB community collection pointGB waste kerbside collectionHousehold demand for PB waterHousehold demand for GB waterPB water - short lifeGB water - short lifeImported bottled waterImported bottled water at UK depotPlastic reprocessingGlass reprocessingGB waste incinerationPB waste municipalMunicipal landfill5I C , U A D  &  H e r i o t - W a t t C O S T  6 2 4  W o r k s h o p  1 0 / 0 3 / 0 0RSS contribution• Extended RES & enhanced LCA approach by applying it in adynamic system flow context - to London• Applied sustainability criteria and showed:Ø Conceptual & practical complexities of  indicators & valuationØ how assessment depends on decision-maker & stakeholder perspectivesNext stages?• Build on RSS-type models to develop useful decision-supportingtools/frameworks?• What do users need to help sustainability assessment?• Led to collaborative project, with decision support tools a keyfocusI C , U A D  &  H e r i o t - W a t t C O S T  6 2 4  W o r k s h o p  1 0 / 0 3 / 0 0Decision-support Project• The development of a decision-support tool to assessthe relative sustainability of water/wastewater systems• Supported by the UK Engineering and PhysicalSciences Research Council WITE Programme:Ø Imperial College, University of Abertay, Dundee,Heriot-Watt UniversityØNorth, East, West of Scotland Water Authorities, Severn-Trent Water6I C , U A D  &  H e r i o t - W a t t C O S T  6 2 4  W o r k s h o p  1 0 / 0 3 / 0 0Ways forward for sustainability• Formulating environmental, social and economiccriteria: stakeholder input• Analysis of options: systems modelling tools and socialimpact assessment• Assessment of relative sustainability: multi-criteriaanalysis• Decision-support system/guideI C , U A D  &  H e r i o t - W a t t C O S T  6 2 4  W o r k s h o p  1 0 / 0 3 / 0 0Project process• Learn about how water utilities currently makedecisions• Focus groups with water authority/company managers• Decision mapping exercises:Ømap information flows and criteria usedØ identify decision nodes• Specification of criteria• Development of the Guidebook7I C , U A D  &  H e r i o t - W a t t C O S T  6 2 4  W o r k s h o p  1 0 / 0 3 / 0 0Framework for decision-supportProcess modellingDecisionsMulti- criteria  analysisSustainability indicators/ criteria  Systems modellingScenariosSocial analysisI C , U A D  &  H e r i o t - W a t t C O S T  6 2 4  W o r k s h o p  1 0 / 0 3 / 0 0Guidebook: framework for incorporatingsustainability assessment into decision making• Guide to criteria• Guide to tools and assessment methodologies• Guide to appropriate data• Demonstration projects8I C , U A D  &  H e r i o t - W a t t C O S T  6 2 4  W o r k s h o p  1 0 / 0 3 / 0 0Selection of criteria• Formulation of generic criteria: environmental, social,economic, technicalØdeveloped in collaboration with water industry & stakeholders• End-user may select appropriate criteria for evaluation ofdecision optionsI C , U A D  &  H e r i o t - W a t t C O S T  6 2 4  W o r k s h o p  1 0 / 0 3 / 0 0Economic and environmental criteria• EconomicØLife-cycle costsØWillingness to pay/price responsivenessØAffordabilityØFinancial risk exposure• EnvironmentalØResource utilisationØService provisionØEnvironmental impact9I C , U A D  &  H e r i o t - W a t t C O S T  6 2 4  W o r k s h o p  1 0 / 0 3 / 0 0Social and technical criteria• SocialØAcceptability to stakeholdersØParticipation and responsibilityØPublic awareness and understandingØSocial inclusion• TechnicalØPerformance of the systemØReliabilityØDurabilityØFlexibility and adaptabilityI C , U A D  &  H e r i o t - W a t t C O S T  6 2 4  W o r k s h o p  1 0 / 0 3 / 0 0Components of economic life-cycle costs• Life Cycle Costs -stagesØ Resource extractionØ ProductionØ End-useØ End of life/ Decommissioning (inc. ‘Green costs’)o Cost components:• Capital• Operation (O)• Maintenance (M)− Cost categories• Marginal; Average; Total10I C , U A D  &  H e r i o t - W a t t C O S T  6 2 4  W o r k s h o p  1 0 / 0 3 / 0 0Components of willingness-to-pay/price responsiveness• AttributesØProductØEnvironmentalØSafetyØHealthØOtherI C , U A D  &  H e r i o t - W a t t C O S T  6 2 4  W o r k s h o p  1 0 / 0 3 / 0 0Tools for analysis of options by Guidebookusers• Systems modelling tools for economic andenvironmental impact• Social impact assessment: stakeholder workshops, etc.• Technical assessment (generation of data for technicalcriteria)11I C , U A D  &  H e r i o t - W a t t C O S T  6 2 4  W o r k s h o p  1 0 / 0 3 / 0 0Assessment of sustainability• Scoring options according to criteria• Either: compare with indicators of sustainability• Or: use Multi-Criteria Analysis to assess trade-offsbetween different criteria• Different stakeholders may assign different weights tocriteria• Implications of these weightingsI C , U A D  &  H e r i o t - W a t t C O S T  6 2 4  W o r k s h o p  1 0 / 0 3 / 0 0Post-decision phase• Implement decision• Monitor and evaluate option chosen• Feedback refined criteria and evaluation of process intodecision-support procedure• Open and transparent process12I C , U A D  &  H e r i o t - W a t t C O S T  6 2 4  W o r k s h o p  1 0 / 0 3 / 0 0Proposed 'activity'Define decision objectives & Determine optionsSelect pertinent criteria from generic setCollect dataMatch data with criterias for each optionRank options/criteria descriptorsCompare options/data with indicatorsRanking/indicatorsor MCA?Apply formalised MCAMORESUSTAINABLEOPTIONDETERMINEDCarry outrelevantanalysis usingappropriatetoolsMCAINDICATORSDefineindicatorsphase 4RANK OPTIONSphase 5ASSESSRELATIVESUSTAINABILITYphase 3ANALYSE EACHOPTION - DATAASSEMBLYphase 1DEFINE OPTIONSMeasurements,models etc.phase 6IMPLEMENTAll necessary dataavailableincluding analysis(temporal etc)Not all dataavailablephase 2SELECT CRITERIAReview performanceThe Guidebook ProcessI C , U A D  &  H e r i o t - W a t t C O S T  6 2 4  W o r k s h o p  1 0 / 0 3 / 0 0Further Reading• Leach MA, Bauen A and Lucas NJD (1997). 'A Systems Approach to Materials Flow inSustainable Cities. Case study of paper'. Journal of Environmental Planning and Management,40(6), 705-723.• Foxon TJ and Leach MA, with Butler D, Dawes J, Hutchinson D, Pearson PJ and Rose D(1999). ‘Useful indicators of urban sustainability: some methodological questions’, LocalEnvironment, 4(2), 137-149.• Foxon,T J, Butler, D, Dawes, J, Hutchinson, D, Leach, M, Pearson, P and Rose, D (2000,forthcoming), ‘An assessment of water demand management options from a systems approach’,Journal of Chartered Institute of Water and Environmental Management.• Francois Bouchart, Tim Foxon, Nicki Souter, Richard Ashley, David Butler and Paul Jowitt(1999): ‘Decision mapping for the development of multi-criteria analysis tools to assess therelative sustainability of water/wastewater systems’, CHAINET (European network on chainanalysis for environmental decision support):http://www.leidenuniv.nl/interfac/cml/chainet/absfoxon.rtf

Multi Objective Decision Making: a guide book approach

https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/45298/1/pearson.pdf

Multi Objective Decision Making: a guide book approach

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