A uniform Time Trade Off method for states better and worse than dead: feasibility study of the ‘lead time’ approach

The way Time Trade Off (TTO) values are elicited for states of health considered ‘worse than being dead’ has important implications for the mean values used in economic evaluation. Conventional approaches to TTO, as used in the UK’s ‘MVH’ value set, are problematic because they require fundamentally different tradeoffs tasks for the valuation of states better and worse than dead. This study aims to refine and test the feasibility of a new approach described by Robinson and Spencer (2006), and to explore the characteristics of the valuation data it generates. The approach introduces a ‘lead time’ into the TTO, producing a uniform procedure for generating values either >0 or <0. We used this lead time TTO to value 10 moderate to severe EQ-5D states using a sample of the general public (n=109). We conclude that the approach is feasible for use in valuation studies, and appears to overcome the discontinuity in values around 0 evident in conventional methods. However, further research is required to resolve the issue of how to handle participants who ‘use up’ all lead time; to develop ways of controlling for individual time preferences; and to better understand the implications for valuations of states better than dead

Does the value of quality of life depend on duration?

The aims of this study are to investigate the feasibility of eliciting Time Trade Off (TTO) valuations using short durations; to determine the effect of contrasting durations on individuals’ responses to the TTO; to examine variations within and between respondents’ values with respect to duration; and to consider the insights provided by participants’ comments and explanations regarding their reaction to duration in the valuation task. 27 participants provided TTO values using short and long durations for three EQ-5D states. Feedback was sought using a series of open ended questions. Of the 81 opportunities to observe it, strict constant proportionality was satisfied twice. 11 participants had no systematic relationship between duration and value; 11 provided consistently lower valuations in long durations, while 5 had higher valuations in long durations. Comments provided by participants were consistent with the values they provided. Mean TTO values did not differ markedly between alternative durations. We conclude that it is feasible to elicit TTO values for short durations. There is considerable heterogeneity in individuals’ responses to the time frames used to elicit values. Further research is required to ensure that the values used in cost effectiveness analysis adequately represent preferences about quality and length of life

A Brief Review on Diagnosis of Foot-and-Mouth Disease of Livestock: Conventional to Molecular Tools

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is one of the highly contagious diseases of domestic animals. Effective control of this disease needs sensitive, specific, and quick diagnostic tools at each tier of control strategy. In this paper we have outlined various diagnostic approaches from old to new generation in a nutshell. Presently FMD diagnosis is being carried out using techniques such as Virus Isolation (VI), Sandwich-ELISA (S-ELISA), Liquid-Phase Blocking ELISA (LPBE), Multiplex-PCR (m-PCR), and indirect ELISA (DIVA), and real time-PCR can be used for detection of antibody against nonstructural proteins. Nucleotide sequencing for serotyping, microarray as well as recombinant antigen-based detection, biosensor, phage display, and nucleic-acid-based diagnostic are on the way for rapid and specific detection of FMDV. Various pen side tests, namely, lateral flow, RT-LAMP, Immunostrip tests, and so forth. are also developed for detection of the virus in field condition

Variations in the management and survival of women under 50 years with breast cancer in the South East Thames region.

A retrospective, population-based study was undertaken to determine variations in the management of women aged less than 50 years with primary breast cancer in different hospital settings and the influence of these variations on survival. A total of 1757 women who were resident in the South East Thames Health Region aged less than 50 years at the time of diagnosis of breast cancer and who presented during a 5 year period (January 1984 to December 1988) were recorded by the Thames Cancer Registry. The hospitals at which primary surgery was undertaken were categorised as teaching or non-teaching hospitals. The non-teaching hospitals were grouped according to the mean number of patients treated annually during the study period (< or = 2, 3-9, > or = 10 each year). The following factors were compared between these groups: age, extent of disease, tumour morphology, extent of primary surgery (mastectomy vs less than mastectomy), use of axillary surgery (any vs none) and use of systemic adjuvant therapy. Survival rates for the different groups were compared. Registration rates did not differ significantly between health districts. A total of 1485 (85%) women underwent surgery in over 90 different hospitals. In 1324 (86%) of these cases the surgery was undertaken in a total of 42 NHS hospitals within SE Thames Health Region or in seven teaching hospitals in adjacent regions. Mastectomy rates decreased from 52% in 1984 to 28% in 1988 (P<0.0001), but were consistently higher in teaching hospitals (P=0.01). The use of any form of axillary surgery decreased from 49% to 36% over the 5 year period (P=0.003), with significantly lower rates of axillary surgery being performed in non-teaching hospitals (P<0.0001). The proportion of cases recorded as having non-specific morphology was higher in nonteaching than in teaching hospitals (P<0.0001). On multivariate analysis survival was significantly (P<0.001) influenced by stage and tumour histology. Among patients who underwent surgery, the type of hospital in which this was undertaken did not appear to influence survival significantly. This analysis of routine cancer registry data indicates that patients were widely dispersed in a large number of different hospitals and that there were marked variations in practice according to the type of hospital to which patients presented. The treatments provided were frequently at variance with those recommended at a consensus conference held during the study period, particularly in relation to the use of axillary surgery and adjuvant systemic therapy. The way in which services are currently provided may hamper the delivery of appropriate management and comprehensive support. These data thus have implications for the purchasing and provision of services for this common condition

Using Data Linkage to Investigate Inconsistent Reporting of Self-Harm and Questionnaire Non-Response

The objective of this study was to examine agreement between self-reported and medically recorded self-harm, and investigate whether the prevalence of self-harm differs in questionnaire responders vs. non-responders. A total of 4,810 participants from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) completed a self-harm questionnaire at age 16 years. Data from consenting participants were linked to medical records (number available for analyses ranges from 205-3,027). The prevalence of self-harm leading to hospital admission was somewhat higher in questionnaire non-responders than responders (2.0 vs. 1.2%). Hospital attendance with self-harm was under-reported on the questionnaire. One third reported self-harm inconsistently over time; inconsistent reporters were less likely to have depression and fewer had self-harmed with suicidal intent. Self-harm prevalence estimates derived from self-report may be underestimated; more accurate figures may come from combining data from multiple sources

Estimating the sea ice floe size distribution using satellite altimetry: Theory, climatology, and model comparison

In sea-ice-covered areas, the sea ice floe size distribution (FSD) plays an important role in many processes affecting the coupled sea-ice-ocean-atmosphere system. Observations of the FSD are sparse - traditionally taken via a painstaking analysis of ice surface photography - and the seasonal and inter-annual evolution of floe size regionally and globally is largely unknown. Frequently, measured FSDs are assessed using a single number, the scaling exponent of the closest power-law fit to the observed floe size data, although in the absence of adequate datasets there have been limited tests of this "power-law hypothesis". Here we derive and explain a mathematical technique for deriving statistics of the sea ice FSD from polar-orbiting altimeters, satellites with sub-daily return times to polar regions with high along-track resolutions. Applied to the CryoSat-2 radar altimetric record, covering the period from 2010 to 2018, and incorporating 11 million individual floe samples, we produce the first pan-Arctic climatology and seasonal cycle of sea ice floe size statistics. We then perform the first pan-Arctic test of the power-law hypothesis, finding limited support in the range of floe sizes typically analyzed in photographic observational studies. We compare the seasonal variability in observed floe size to fully coupled climate model simulations including a prognostic floe size and thickness distribution and coupled wave model, finding good agreement in regions where modeled ocean surface waves cause sea ice fracture

Model selection of the effect of binary exposures over the life course (Epidemiology (2015) 26 (719-726))

Epidemiologists are often interested in examining the effect on a later-life outcome of an exposure measured repeatedly over the life course. When different hypotheses for this effect are proposed by competing theories, it is important to identify those most supported by observed data as a first step toward estimating causal associations. One method is to compare goodness-of-fit of hypothesized models with a saturated model, but it is unclear how to judge the “best” out of two hypothesized models that both pass criteria for a good fit. We developed a new method using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator to identify which of a small set of hypothesized models explains most of the observed outcome variation. We analyzed a cohort study with repeated measures of socioeconomic position (exposure) through childhood, early- and mid-adulthood, and body mass index (outcome) measured in mid-adulthood. We confirmed previous findings regarding support or lack of support for the following hypotheses: accumulation (number of times exposed), three critical periods (only exposure in childhood, early- or mid-adulthood), and social mobility (transition from low to high socioeconomic position). Simulations showed that our least absolute shrinkage and selection operator approach identified the most suitable hypothesized model with high probability in moderately sized samples, but with lower probability for hypotheses involving change in exposure or highly correlated exposures. Identifying a single, simple hypothesis that represents the specified knowledge of the life course association allows more precise definition of the causal effect of interest

Body mass index trajectories from 2 to 18 years - exploring differences between European cohorts.

BACKGROUND: In recent decades, there has been an increase in the prevalence of childhood overweight in most high-income countries. Within northern Europe, prevalence tends to be higher in the UK compared with the Scandinavian countries. We aimed to study differences in body mass index (BMI) trajectories between large cohorts of children from UK and Scandinavian populations. METHODS: We compared BMI trajectories in participants from the English Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children born in 1991-1993 (ALSPAC) (N = 6517), the Northern Finland Birth Cohorts born in 1966 (NFBC1966) (N = 3321) and 1986 (NFBC1986) (N = 4764), and the Danish Aarhus Birth Cohort born in 1990-1992 (ABC) (N = 1920). We used multilevel models to estimate BMI trajectories from 2 to 18 years. We explored whether cohort differences were explained by maternal BMI, height, education or smoking during pregnancy and whether differences were attributable to changes in the degree of skew in the BMI distribution. RESULTS: Differences in mean BMI between the cohorts were small but emerged early and persisted in most cases across childhood. Girls in ALSPAC had a higher BMI than all other cohorts throughout childhood, e.g. compared with the NFBC1986 BMI was 2.2-3.5% higher. For boys, the difference emerging over time (comparing the two NFBC's) exceeded the differences across populations (comparing NFBC1986, ABC and ALSPAC). BMI distribution demonstrated increasing right skew with age. CONCLUSION: Population-level differences between cohorts were small, tended to emerge very early, persisted across childhood, and demonstrated an increase in the right-hand tail of the BMI distribution