Big Data and Analysis of Data Transfers for International Research Networks Using NetSage

Modern science is increasingly data-driven and collaborative in nature. Many scientific disciplines, including genomics, high-energy physics, astronomy, and atmospheric science, produce petabytes of data that must be shared with collaborators all over the world. The National Science Foundation-supported International Research Network Connection (IRNC) links have been essential to enabling this collaboration, but as data sharing has increased, so has the amount of information being collected to understand network performance. New capabilities to measure and analyze the performance of international wide-area networks are essential to ensure end-users are able to take full advantage of such infrastructure for their big data applications. NetSage is a project to develop a unified, open, privacy-aware network measurement, and visualization service to address the needs of monitoring today's high-speed international research networks. NetSage collects data on both backbone links and exchange points, which can be as much as 1Tb per month. This puts a significant strain on hardware, not only in terms storage needs to hold multi-year historical data, but also in terms of processor and memory needs to analyze the data to understand network behaviors. This paper addresses the basic NetSage architecture, its current data collection and archiving approach, and details the constraints of dealing with this big data problem of handling vast amounts of monitoring data, while providing useful, extensible visualization to end users

A potential library for primary MFL pedagogy: the case of Young Pathfinders

As readers of this journal will know very well, 2010 will see all KS2 (ages 7-11) pupils in England entitled to learn a modern foreign language in normal curriculum time. This development of the commitment to primary language learning should provide an excellent opportunity and experience for pupils, whilst at the same time requiring some radical changes for many teachers, schools and much of the wider language learning community. Recent research has indicated general trends suggesting an increase in primary languages already, in anticipation of this development and even beforehand. One of the most recent studies indicates that 43% of primary children currently learn a foreign language at KS2, either in class or as an extra-curricular activity, although the extent of this learning varies considerably (Driscoll, Jones and Macrory, 2004). It has also been suggested (Muijs et al, 2005) that there are certain aspects of the process that will be particularly demanding if the challenge of providing this entitlement are to be met

Longitudinal Variations in Jupiter's Winds

Long-term studies of Jupiter's zonal wind field revealed temporal variations on the order of 20 to 40 m/s at many latitudes, greater than the typical data uncertainties of 1 to 10 m/s. No definitive periodicities were evident, however, though some latitudinally-confined signals did appear at periods relevant to the Quasi- Quadrennial Oscillation (Simon-Miller & Gierasch, Icarus, in press). As the QQO appears, from vertical temperature profiles, to propagate downward, it is unclear why a signal is not more obvious, unless other processes dominate over possibly weaker forcing from the QQO. An additional complication is that zonal wind profiles represent an average over some particular set of longitudes for an image pair and most data sets do not offer global wind coverage. Lien avoiding known features, such as the large anticyclonic vortices especially prevalent in the south, there can be distinct variations in longitude. We present results on the full wind field from Voyager and Cassini data, showing apparent longitudinal variations of up to 60 m/s or more. These are particularly obvious near disruptions such as the South Equatorial Disturbance, even when the feature itself is not clearly visible. These two dates represent very different states of the planet for comparison: Voyagers 1 & 2 flew by Jupiter shortly after a global upheaval, while many regions were in a disturbed state, while the Cassini view is typical of a more quiescent period present during much of the 1990s and early 2000s

Use of strategies to improve retention in primary care randomised trials: a qualitative study with in-depth interviews

Objective To explore the strategies used to improve retention in primary care randomised trials.<p></p> Design Qualitative in-depth interviews and thematic analysis.<p></p> Participants 29 UK primary care chief and principal investigators, trial managers and research nurses.<p></p> Methods In-depth face-to-face interviews.<p></p> Results Primary care researchers use incentive and communication strategies to improve retention in trials, but were unsure of their effect. Small monetary incentives were used to increase response to postal questionnaires. Non-monetary incentives were used although there was scepticism about the impact of these on retention. Nurses routinely used telephone communication to encourage participants to return for trial follow-up. Trial managers used first class post, shorter questionnaires and improved questionnaire designs with the aim of improving questionnaire response. Interviewees thought an open trial design could lead to biased results and were negative about using behavioural strategies to improve retention. There was consensus among the interviewees that effective communication and rapport with participants, participant altruism, respect for participant's time, flexibility of trial personnel and appointment schedules and trial information improve retention. Interviewees noted particular challenges with retention in mental health trials and those involving teenagers.<p></p> Conclusions The findings of this qualitative study have allowed us to reflect on research practice around retention and highlight a gap between such practice and current evidence. Interviewees describe acting from experience without evidence from the literature, which supports the use of small monetary incentives to improve the questionnaire response. No such evidence exists for non-monetary incentives or first class post, use of which may need reconsideration. An exploration of barriers and facilitators to retention in other research contexts may be justified.<p></p&gt

Grid resolution and turbulent inflow boundary condition recommendations for NPARC calculations

The effects of grid resolution and specification of turbulent inflow boundary conditions were examined using the NPARC code with the Baldwin-Lomax and Chien k-e turbulence models. Three benchmark turbulent test cases were calculated: two were wall bounded flows and the third was a compressible mixing layer. The wall bounded flows were essentially insensitive to axial grid density; however, the location of the first point off the wall had a substantial effect on flow solutions. It was determined that the first point off the wall must be in the laminar sublayer (y+ less than or equal to 5) for the entire boundary layer. For the compressible mixing layer cases, the axial grid density affected the capturing of oblique shock waves in the mixing region, but the overall mixing rate was not strongly dependent on grid resolution. In specifying the inflow turbulent boundary conditions, it was very important to match the boundary layer and momentum thicknesses of the two flows entering the mixing region; calculations obtained with smaller or no boundary layers resulted in substantially reduced mixing. The solutions were relatively insensitive to freestream turbulence level

Modulation of Mid‐Holocene African Rainfall by Dust Aerosol Direct and Indirect Effects

Climate model simulations of the mid‐Holocene (MH) consistently underestimate northern African rainfall for reasons not fully understood. While most models incorporate orbital forcing and vegetation feedbacks, they neglect dust reductions associated with greater vegetation cover. Here we simulate the MH climate response to reduced Saharan dust using CESM CAM5‐chem, which resolves direct and indirect dust aerosol effects. Direct aerosol effects increase Saharan and Sahel convective rainfall by ~16% and 8%. In contrast, indirect aerosol effects decrease stratiform rainfall, damping the dust‐induced total rainfall increase by ~13% in the Sahara and ~59% in the Sahel. Sensitivity experiments indicate the dust‐induced precipitation anomaly in the Sahara and Sahel (0.27 and 0.18 mm/day) is smaller than the anomaly from MH vegetation cover (1.19 and 1.08 mm/day). Although sensitive to dust radiative properties, sea surface temperatures, and indirect aerosol effect parameterization, our results suggest that dust reductions had competing effects on MH African rainfall.Plain Language SummarySix thousand years ago, changes in Earth’s orbit led to greater summer season solar radiation over northern Africa. The increase in energy resulted in higher rainfall amounts, widespread vegetation, and reduced dust aerosols over regions that today are desert. In this study we use a climate model, CESM CAM5‐chem, that accounts for the ways dust aerosols interact with sunlight and cloud droplets to examine how the reduction in Saharan dust during this past humid time affected rainfall. When dust aerosols are reduced in the model, more sunlight reaches the surface, the Sahara warms, and convective rainfall from the West African Monsoon increases. However, through dust‐cloud droplet interactions, the same reduction in dust decreases nonconvective rainfall, which is less prevalent during the monsoon season but still important, and thus dampens the total rainfall increase. Overall, dust reduction leads to a rainfall response that is dependent on rainfall type. Lastly, we compare the rainfall response of reducing dust to that of increasing vegetation cover and find that while important, the response from dust is considerably weaker.Key PointsChanges in direct dust aerosol effects from reduced mid‐Holocene Saharan dust loading increase convective rainfall in northern AfricaChanges in indirect dust aerosol effects weaken total precipitation increases by limiting stratiform rainfall, particularly in the SahelThe African rainfall response to total dust aerosol effects is lower than a previous study and substantially less than vegetation forcingPeer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/149324/1/grl58759-sup-0001-2018GL081225-SI.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/149324/2/grl58759_am.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/149324/3/grl58759.pd

Cost analysis of employing general practitioners within residential aged care facilities based on a prospective, stepped-wedge, cluster randomised trial

Objective: To assess the impacts of changing a model of care and employing general practitioners (GPs) within residential aged care facilities (RACFs) on costs to the aged care provider (ACP) and state and federal governments of Australia. Methods: This study was a cost analysis of a prospective, stepped-wedge, cluster randomised trial. All financial data from the ACP for every RACF involved, before and after implementation of the new model were obtained. Costs of hospital transfers, admissions, ambulance usage and GP consultations were calculated. Costs of new infrastructure, recruiting and training new staff were accounted for. Costs were standardised to 2019 Australian Dollars per occupied bed day (OBD). Results: Implementation of the new model of care resulted in overall cost savings of $9.7 per OBD to the ACP, with increased salary costs offset by increased federal government subsidies and Medicare claims income. Costs to the federal government increased by$19.6 per OBD, driven by increases in subsides. Costs savings of $3.0 per OBD to state governments were seen, driven by decreased costs of hospital transfers. Conclusions: Implementation of a model of care including GPs employed at RACFs had a mixed impact on costs depending on perspective, with overall savings to the ACP and state government perspective

Bayesian Parameter Estimation for Latent Markov Random Fields and Social Networks

Undirected graphical models are widely used in statistics, physics and machine vision. However Bayesian parameter estimation for undirected models is extremely challenging, since evaluation of the posterior typically involves the calculation of an intractable normalising constant. This problem has received much attention, but very little of this has focussed on the important practical case where the data consists of noisy or incomplete observations of the underlying hidden structure. This paper specifically addresses this problem, comparing two alternative methodologies. In the first of these approaches particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (Andrieu et al., 2010) is used to efficiently explore the parameter space, combined with the exchange algorithm (Murray et al., 2006) for avoiding the calculation of the intractable normalising constant (a proof showing that this combination targets the correct distribution in found in a supplementary appendix online). This approach is compared with approximate Bayesian computation (Pritchard et al., 1999). Applications to estimating the parameters of Ising models and exponential random graphs from noisy data are presented. Each algorithm used in the paper targets an approximation to the true posterior due to the use of MCMC to simulate from the latent graphical model, in lieu of being able to do this exactly in general. The supplementary appendix also describes the nature of the resulting approximation.Comment: 26 pages, 2 figures, accepted in Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics (http://www.amstat.org/publications/jcgs.cfm

Meta-analytical methods to identify who benefits most from treatments: daft, deluded, or deft approach?

Identifying which individuals beneft most from particular treatments or other interventions underpins so-called personalised or stratifed medicine. However, single trials are typically underpowered for exploring whether participant characteristics, such as age or disease severity, determine an individual's response to treatment. A meta-analysis of multiple trials, particularly one where individual participant data (IPD) are available, provides greater power to investigate interactions between participant characteristics (covariates) and treatment e?ects. We use a published IPD meta-analysis to illustrate three broad approaches used for testing such interactions. Based on another systematic review of recently published IPD meta-analyses, we also show that all three approaches can be applied to aggregate data as well as IPD. We also summarise which methods of analysing and presenting interactions are in current use, and describe their advantages and disadvantages. We recommend that testing for interactions using within-trials information alone (the def approach) becomes standard practice, alongside graphical presentation that directly visualises this