Targeted experiment design using the posterior predictive distribution

Abstract only

Optimal experiment design for model selection of biochemical networks

Background Mathematical modeling is often used to formalize hypotheses on how a biochemical network operates by discriminating between competing models. Bayesian model selection offers a way to determine the amount of evidence that data provides to support one model over the other while favoring simple models. In practice, the amount of experimental data is often insufficient to make a clear distinction between competing models. Often one would like to perform a new experiment which would discriminate between competing hypotheses. Results We developed a novel method to perform Optimal Experiment Design to predict which experiments would most effectively allow model selection. A Bayesian approach is applied to infer model parameter distributions. These distributions are sampled and used to simulate from multivariate predictive densities. The method is based on a k-Nearest Neighbor estimate of the Jensen Shannon divergence between the multivariate predictive densities of competing models. Conclusions We show that the method successfully uses predictive differences to enable model selection by applying it on several test cases. Because the design criterion is based on predictive distributions and such distributions can be computed for a wide range of model quantities, the approach is very flexible. The method reveals specific combinations of experiments which improve discriminability even in cases where data is scarce. The proposed approach can be used in conjunction with existing Bayesian methodologies where (approximate) posteriors have been determined, making use of relations that exist within the inferred posteriors

An integrated strategy for prediction uncertainty analysis

Motivation: To further our understanding of the mechanisms underlying biochemical pathways mathematical modelling is used. Since many parameter values are unknown they need to be estimated using experimental observations. The complexity of models necessary to describe biological pathways in combination with the limited amount of quantitative data results in large parameter uncertainty which propagates into model predictions. Therefore prediction uncertainty analysis is an important topic that needs to be addressed in Systems Biology modelling

Dynamical mechanism for sharp orientation tuning in an integrate-and-fire model of a cortical hypercolumn

Orientation tuning in a ring of pulse-coupled integrate-and-fire (IF) neurons is analyzed in terms of spontaneous pattern formation. It is shown how the ring bifurcates from a synchronous state to a non-phase-locked state whose spike trains are characterized by clustered but irregular fluctuations of the interspike intervals (ISIs). The separation of these clusters in phase space results in a localized peak of activity as measured by the time-averaged firing rate of the neurons. This generates a sharp orientation tuning curve that can lock to a slowly rotating, weakly tuned external stimulus. Under certain conditions, the peak can slowly rotate even to a fixed external stimulus. The ring also exhibits hysteresis due to the subcritical nature of the bifurcation to sharp orientation tuning. Such behavior is shown to be consistent with a corresponding analog version of the IF model in the limit of slow synaptic interactions. For fast synapses, the deterministic fluctuations of the ISIs associated with the tuning curve can support a coefficient of variation of order unity.<br/

Hypoxia Induced HIF-1 Response: identifying a mechanism for its exponential behavior

abstract onl

Metabolic Modeling Combined With Machine Learning Integrates Longitudinal Data and Identifies the Origin of LXR-Induced Hepatic Steatosis

Temporal multi-omics data can provide information about the dynamics of disease development and therapeutic response. However, statistical analysis of high-dimensional time-series data is challenging. Here we develop a novel approach to model temporal metabolomic and transcriptomic data by combining machine learning with metabolic models. ADAPT (Analysis of Dynamic Adaptations in Parameter Trajectories) performs metabolic trajectory modeling by introducing time-dependent parameters in differential equation models of metabolic systems. ADAPT translates structural uncertainty in the model, such as missing information about regulation, into a parameter estimation problem that is solved by iterative learning. We have now extended ADAPT to include both metabolic and transcriptomic time-series data by introducing a regularization function in the learning algorithm. The ADAPT learning algorithm was (re)formulated as a multi-objective optimization problem in which the estimation of trajectories of metabolic parameters is constrained by the metabolite data and refined by gene expression data. ADAPT was applied to a model of hepatic lipid and plasma lipoprotein metabolism to predict metabolic adaptations that are induced upon pharmacological treatment of mice by a Liver X receptor (LXR) agonist. We investigated the excessive accumulation of triglycerides (TG) in the liver resulting in the development of hepatic steatosis. ADAPT predicted that hepatic TG accumulation after LXR activation originates for 80% from an increased influx of free fatty acids. The model also correctly estimated that TG was stored in the cytosol rather than transferred to nascent very-low density lipoproteins. Through model-based integration of temporal metabolic and gene expression data we discovered that increased free fatty acid influx instead of de novo lipogenesis is the main driver of LXR-induced hepatic steatosis. This study illustrates how ADAPT provides estimates for biomedically important parameters that cannot be measured directly, explaining (side-)effects of pharmacological treatment with LXR agonists