Development and application of model of resource utilization, costs, and outcomes for stroke (MORUCOS): an Australian economic model for stroke

Objectives: To outline the development, structure, data assumptions, and application of an Australian economic model for stroke (Model of Resource Utilization, Costs, and Outcomes for Stroke [MORUCOS]).Methods: The model has a linked spreadsheet format with four modules to describe the disease burden and treatment pathways, estimate prevalence-based and incidence-based costs, and derive life expectancy and quality of life consequences. The model uses patient-level, community-based, stroke cohort data and macro-level simulations. An interventions module allows options for change to be consistently evaluated by modifying aspects of the other modules. To date, model validation has included sensitivity testing, face validity, and peer review. Further validation of technical and predictive accuracy is needed. The generic pathway model was assessed by comparison with a stroke subtypes (ischemic, hemorrhagic, or undetermined) approach and used to determine the relative cost-effectiveness of four interventions.Results: The generic pathway model produced lower costs compared with a subtypes version (total average first-year costs/case AUD$15,117 versus AUD$17,786, respectively). Optimal evidence-based uptake of anticoagulation therapy for primary and secondary stroke prevention and intravenous thrombolytic therapy within 3 hours of stroke were more cost-effective than current practice (base year, 1997).Conclusions: MORUCOS is transparent and flexible in describing Australian stroke care and can effectively be used to systematically evaluate a range of different interventions. Adjusting results to account for stroke subtypes, as they influence cost estimates, could enhance the generic model

Development and application of model of resource utilization, costs, and outcomes for stroke (MORUCOS): an Australian economic model for stroke

Objectives: To outline the development, structure, data assumptions, and application of an Australian economic model for stroke (Model of Resource Utilization, Costs, and Outcomes for Stroke [MORUCOS]).Methods: The model has a linked spreadsheet format with four modules to describe the disease burden and treatment pathways, estimate prevalence-based and incidence-based costs, and derive life expectancy and quality of life consequences. The model uses patient-level, community-based, stroke cohort data and macro-level simulations. An interventions module allows options for change to be consistently evaluated by modifying aspects of the other modules. To date, model validation has included sensitivity testing, face validity, and peer review. Further validation of technical and predictive accuracy is needed. The generic pathway model was assessed by comparison with a stroke subtypes (ischemic, hemorrhagic, or undetermined) approach and used to determine the relative cost-effectiveness of four interventions.Results: The generic pathway model produced lower costs compared with a subtypes version (total average first-year costs/case AUD$15,117 versus AUD$17,786, respectively). Optimal evidence-based uptake of anticoagulation therapy for primary and secondary stroke prevention and intravenous thrombolytic therapy within 3 hours of stroke were more cost-effective than current practice (base year, 1997).Conclusions: MORUCOS is transparent and flexible in describing Australian stroke care and can effectively be used to systematically evaluate a range of different interventions. Adjusting results to account for stroke subtypes, as they influence cost estimates, could enhance the generic model

Blood pressure, aortic stiffness, hemodynamics and cognition in twin pairs discordant for type 2 diabetes

Background: Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is associated with an increased risk of cognitive impairment and dementia with poorly understood underlying mechanisms. Objective: We examined the role of blood pressure (BP), aortic stiffness, and hemodynamics in this association. Methods: Cross-sectional sample of late middle-aged twins discordant for T2D from the Australian Twin Registry. Measurements included neuropsychological battery and brain MRI including arterial spin labelling (ASL) to measure cerebral perfusion. Mobil-o-Graph devices were used to non-invasively obtain 24-hour BP, aortic stiffness, and hemodynamic measures. Using mixed modelling, we studied associations of T2D with cognition, MRI measures, BP, aortic stiffness, and hemodynamics. Results: There were 23 twin pairs with mean age 63.7 (SD = 6.1) years. T2D (β=-0.45, p < 0.001) and age (β=-0.05, p = 0.022) were independently associated with poorer attention but not with memory or perceptual speed. T2D was associated with reduced nocturnal central systolic BP dipping (β=-3.79, p = 0.027), but not with BP, aortic stiffness, cerebral perfusion, or other hemodynamic measures. There was a statistically significant interaction between T2D and central systolic BP dipping in predicting attention scores (both p < 0.05 for the interaction term) whereby there was a positive association between BP dipping and attention scores in those with T2D, but not in those without T2D. Conclusion: We found an association between T2D and reduced nocturnal central systolic dipping, but not with any other measures of BP, stiffness or hemodynamic measures. Further study of the role of nocturnal central BP dipping in the association between T2D and cognitive impairment may help identify potential mechanisms

Statin use and risk of liver cancer : Evidence from two population-based studies

The analysis of UK Biobank has been conducted using the UK Biobank Resource under Application Number 34374. We acknowledge collaboration with the Research Applications and Data Management Team lead by Ms Katie Wilde, University of Aberdeen in conducting our study. KTT is supported by the Vietnam International Education Cooperation Department. Access to PCCIU data was provided by Queen's University Belfast and the Centre for Academic Primary Care, University of Aberdeen. Access to the UK Biobank was funded by a Cancer Research UK Population Research Postdoctoral Fellowship awarded to ÚCMcM.Peer reviewedPostprin

Proton pump inhibitor and histamine-2 receptor antagonist use and risk of liver cancer in two population-based studies

The analysis of UK Biobank has been conducted using the UK Biobank Resource under Application Number 34374. We acknowledge collaboration with the Research Applications and Data Management Team lead by Ms Katie Wilde, University of Aberdeen in conducting this study. KTT is supported by the Vietnam International Education Cooperation Department. Access to PCCIU data was provided by Queen’s University Belfast and the Centre for Academic Primary Care, University of Aberdeen. Access to the UK Biobank was funded by a Cancer Research UK Population Research Postdoctoral Fellowship awarded to ÚCMcM. HGC is a co-investigator of the UKCRC Centre of Excellence for Public Health Northern Ireland.Peer reviewedPostprin

Development of an electronic health message system to support recovery after stroke: Inspiring Virtual Enabled Resources following Vascular Events (iVERVE)

Purpose: Worldwide, stroke is a leading cause of disease burden. Many survivors have unmet needs after discharge from hospital. Electronic communication technology to support post-discharge care has not been used for patients with stroke. In this paper, we describe the development of a novel electronic messaging system designed for survivors of stroke to support their goals of recovery and secondary prevention after hospital discharge. Participants and methods: This was a formative evaluation study. The design was informed by a literature search, existing data from survivors of stroke, and behavior change theories. We established two working groups; one for developing the electronic infrastructure and the other (comprising researchers, clinical experts and consumer representatives) for establishing the patient-centered program. Following agreement on the categories for the goal-setting menu, we drafted relevant messages to support and educate patients. These messages were then independently reviewed by multiple topic experts. Concurrently, we established an online database to capture participant characteristics and then integrated this database with a purpose-built messaging system. We conducted alpha testing of the approach using the first 60 messages. Results: The initial goal-setting menu comprised 26 subcategories. Following expert review, another 8 goal subcategories were added to the secondary prevention category: managing cholesterol; smoking; physical activity; alcohol consumption; weight management; medication management; access to health professionals, and self-care. Initially, 455 health messages were created by members of working group 2. Following refinement and mapping to different goals by the project team, 980 health messages across the health goals and 69 general motivational messages were formulated. Seventeen independent reviewers assessed the messages and suggested adding 73 messages and removing 16 (2%). Overall, 1,233 messages (18 administrative, 69 general motivation and 1,146 health-related) were created. Conclusion: This novel electronic self-management support system is ready to be pilot tested in a randomized controlled trial in patients with stroke

Mixed methods evaluation to explore participant experiences of a pilot randomized trial to facilitate self‐management of people living with stroke: Inspiring virtual enabled resources following vascular events (iVERVE)

Introduction: Despite digital health tools being popular for supporting self‐ management of chronic diseases, little research has been undertaken on stroke. We developed and pilot tested, using a randomized controlled design, a multicomponent digital health programme, known as Inspiring Virtual Enabled Resources following Vascular Events (iVERVE), to improve self‐management after stroke. The 4‐week trial incorporated facilitated person‐centred goal setting, with those in the intervention group receiving electronic messages aligned to their goals, versus limited administrative messages for the control group. In this paper, we describe the participant experience of the various components involved with the iVERVE trial. Methods: Mixed method design: satisfaction surveys (control and intervention) and a focus group interview (purposively selected intervention participants). Experiences relating to goal setting and overall trial satisfaction were obtained from intervention and control participants, with feedback on the electronic message component from intervention participants. Inductive thematic analysis was used for interview data and open‐text responses, and closed questions were summarized descriptively. Triangulation of data allowed participants' perceptions to be explored in depth. Results: Overall, 27/54 trial participants completed the survey (13 intervention: 52%; 14 control: 48%); and 5/8 invited participants in the intervention group attended the focus group. Goal setting: The approach was considered comprehensive, with the involvement of health professionals in the process helpful in developing realistic, meaningful and person‐centred goals. Electronic messages (intervention): Messages were perceived as easy to understand (92%), and the frequency of receipt was considered appropriate (11/13 survey; 4/5 focus group). The content of messages was considered motivational (62%) and assisted participants to achieve their goals (77%). Some participants described the benefits of receiving messages as a ‘reminder’ to act. Overall trial satisfaction: Messages were acceptable for educating about stroke (77%). Having options for short message services or email to receive messages was considered important. Feedback on the length of the intervention related to specific goals, and benefits of receiving the programme earlier after stroke was expressed. Conclusion: The participant experience has indicated acceptance and utility of iVERVE. Feedback from this evaluation is invaluable to inform refinements to future Phase II and III trials, and wider research in the field. Patient or Public Contribution: Two consumer representatives sourced from the Stroke Foundation (Australia) actively contributed to the design of the iVERVE programme. In this study, participant experiences directly contributed to the further development of the iVERVE intervention and future trial design

A comprehensive re-assessment of the association between vitamin D and cancer susceptibility using Mendelian randomization.

Previous Mendelian randomization (MR) studies on 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) and cancer have typically adopted a handful of variants and found no relationship between 25(OH)D and cancer; however, issues of horizontal pleiotropy cannot be reliably addressed. Using a larger set of variants associated with 25(OH)D (74 SNPs, up from 6 previously), we perform a unified MR analysis to re-evaluate the relationship between 25(OH)D and ten cancers. Our findings are broadly consistent with previous MR studies indicating no relationship, apart from ovarian cancers (OR 0.89; 95% C.I: 0.82 to 0.96 per 1 SD change in 25(OH)D concentration) and basal cell carcinoma (OR 1.16; 95% C.I.: 1.04 to 1.28). However, after adjustment for pigmentation related variables in a multivariable MR framework, the BCC findings were attenuated. Here we report that lower 25(OH)D is unlikely to be a causal risk factor for most cancers, with our study providing more precise confidence intervals than previously possible

Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

The UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of “leaving no one behind”. Understanding today’s gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990–2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 333 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND: Measurement of changes in health across locations is useful to compare and contrast changing epidemiological patterns against health system performance and identify specific needs for resource allocation in research, policy development, and programme decision making. Using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we drew from two widely used summary measures to monitor such changes in population health: disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE). We used these measures to track trends and benchmark progress compared with expected trends on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). METHODS: We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost and years of life lived with disability for each location, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using age-specific death rates and years of life lived with disability per capita. We explored how DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends when compared with the SDI: the geometric mean of income per person, educational attainment in the population older than age 15 years, and total fertility rate. FINDINGS: The highest globally observed HALE at birth for both women and men was in Singapore, at 75·2 years (95% uncertainty interval 71·9-78·6) for females and 72·0 years (68·8-75·1) for males. The lowest for females was in the Central African Republic (45·6 years [42·0-49·5]) and for males was in Lesotho (41·5 years [39·0-44·0]). From 1990 to 2016, global HALE increased by an average of 6·24 years (5·97-6·48) for both sexes combined. Global HALE increased by 6·04 years (5·74-6·27) for males and 6·49 years (6·08-6·77) for females, whereas HALE at age 65 years increased by 1·78 years (1·61-1·93) for males and 1·96 years (1·69-2·13) for females. Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2016 (-2·3% [-5·9 to 0·9]), with decreases in communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) disease DALYs offset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). The exemplars, calculated as the five lowest ratios of observed to expected age-standardised DALY rates in 2016, were Nicaragua, Costa Rica, the Maldives, Peru, and Israel. The leading three causes of DALYs globally were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and lower respiratory infections, comprising 16·1% of all DALYs. Total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most CMNN causes decreased from 1990 to 2016. Conversely, the total DALY burden rose for most NCDs; however, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined globally. INTERPRETATION: At a global level, DALYs and HALE continue to show improvements. At the same time, we observe that many populations are facing growing functional health loss. Rising SDI was associated with increases in cumulative years of life lived with disability and decreases in CMNN DALYs offset by increased NCD DALYs. Relative compression of morbidity highlights the importance of continued health interventions, which has changed in most locations in pace with the gross domestic product per person, education, and family planning. The analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework with which to benchmark location-specific health performance. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform health policies, health system improvement initiatives, targeted prevention efforts, and development assistance for health, including financial and research investments for all countries, regardless of their level of sociodemographic development. The presence of countries that substantially outperform others suggests the need for increased scrutiny for proven examples of best practices, which can help to extend gains, whereas the presence of underperforming countries suggests the need for devotion of extra attention to health systems that need more robust support. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation