Spatiotemporal variation in risk of Shigella infection in childhood : a global risk mapping and prediction model using individual participant data

BACKGROUND: Diarrhoeal disease is a leading cause of childhood illness and death globally, and Shigella is a major aetiological contributor for which a vaccine might soon be available. The primary objective of this study was to model the spatiotemporal variation in paediatric Shigella infection and map its predicted prevalence across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). METHODS: Individual participant data for Shigella positivity in stool samples were sourced from multiple LMIC-based studies of children aged 59 months or younger. Covariates included household-level and participant-level factors ascertained by study investigators and environmental and hydrometeorological variables extracted from various data products at georeferenced child locations. Multivariate models were fitted and prevalence predictions obtained by syndrome and age stratum. FINDINGS: 20 studies from 23 countries (including locations in Central America and South America, sub-Saharan Africa, and south and southeast Asia) contributed 66 563 sample results. Age, symptom status, and study design contributed most to model performance followed by temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, and soil moisture. Probability of Shigella infection exceeded 20% when both precipitation and soil moisture were above average and had a 43% peak in uncomplicated diarrhoea cases at 33°C temperatures, above which it decreased. Compared with unimproved sanitation, improved sanitation decreased the odds of Shigella infection by 19% (odds ratio [OR]=0·81 [95% CI 0·76-0·86]) and open defecation decreased them by 18% (OR=0·82 [0·76-0·88]). INTERPRETATION: The distribution of Shigella is more sensitive to climatological factors, such as temperature, than previously recognised. Conditions in much of sub-Saharan Africa are particularly propitious for Shigella transmission, although hotspots also occur in South America and Central America, the Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta, and the island of New Guinea. These findings can inform prioritisation of populations for future vaccine trials and campaigns. FUNDING: NASA, National Institutes of Health-The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.publishedVersionPeer reviewe

Short report: Comparison of performance of serum and plasma in panbio dengue and Japanese encephalitis virus enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays

We examined the comparative performance of serum and plasma (in dipotassium EDTA) in Panbio Dengue enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs) for detection of non-structural protein 1 (NS1), IgM, and IgG, and a dengue/Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) combination IgM ELISA in a prospective series of 201 patients with suspected dengue in Laos. Paired comparisons of medians from serum and plasma samples were not significantly different for Dengue IgM, and NS1 which had the highest number of discordant pairs (both 2%; P = 0.13 and P = 0.25, respectively). Comparison of qualitative final diagnostic interpretations for serum and plasma samples were not significantly different: only 1.5% (3 of 201 for Dengue/JEV IgM and Dengue IgG) and 2.0% (4 of 201; IgM and NS1) showed discordant pairs. These results demonstrate that plasma containing EDTA is suitable for use in these ELISAs. Copyright © 2012 by The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene

Therapeutic efficacy of artemether-lumefantrine and artesunate-mefloquine for treatment of uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Luang Namtha Province, Lao People's Democratic Republic.

The efficacy of the six-dose regimen of artemether-lumefantrine was compared with the combination of artesunate and mefloquine in a randomised, comparative trial in Luang Namtha Province, Northern Laos. Of 1033 screened patients, 201 were positive for Plasmodium falciparum; 108 patients of all age groups (2-66 years) with acute, uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria were enrolled in the study, 100 of whom were followed-up for 42 days. Fifty-three patients received artemether-lumefantrine and 55 received artesunante-mefloquine. Both drug combinations induced rapid clearance of parasites and malaria symptoms; there was no significant difference in the initial therapeutic response parameters. Both regimes were well tolerated. After 42 days, cure rates were 93.6% (95% CI = 82.5-98.7%; 44 of 47 patients) for artemether-lumefantrine and 100% (95% CI = 93.3-100.0%; 53 of 53 patients) for artesunate-mefloquine. The results show the excellent efficacy and tolerability of both artemether-lumefantrine and artesunate-mefloquine in Northern Laos

Evaluation of the Panbio dengue virus nonstructural 1 antigen detection and immunoglobulin M antibody enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays for the diagnosis of acute dengue infections in Laos.

We evaluated 2 commercial enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs) for the diagnosis of dengue infection; one a serologic test for immunoglobulin M (IgM) antibodies, the other based on detection of dengue virus nonstructural 1 (NS1) antigen. Using gold standard reference serology on paired sera, 41% (38/92 patients) were dengue confirmed, with 4 (11%) acute primary and 33 (87%) acute secondary infections (1 was of indeterminate status). Sensitivity of the NS1-ELISA was 63% (95% confidence interval [CI], 53-73) on admission samples but was much less sensitive (5%; 95% CI, 1-10) on convalescent samples. The IgM capture ELISA had a lower but statistically equivalent sensitivity compared with the NS1-ELISA for admission samples (45%; 95% CI, 35-55) but was more sensitive on convalescent samples (58%; 95% CI, 48-68). The results of the NS1 and IgM capture ELISAs were combined using a logical OR operator, increasing the sensitivity for admission samples (79%; 95% CI, 71-87), convalescent samples (63%; 95% CI, 53-73), and all samples (71%; 95% CI, 65-78)

A prospective assessment of the accuracy of commercial IgM ELISAs in diagnosis of Japanese encephalitis virus infections in patients with suspected central nervous system infections in Laos.

Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) is a major cause of encephalitis in Asia. We estimated the diagnostic accuracy of two anti-JEV immunoglobulin M (IgM) enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs) (Panbio and XCyton JEVCheX) compared with a reference standard (AFRIMS JEV MAC ELISA) in a prospective study of the causes of central nervous system infections in Laos. Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF; 515 patients) and serum samples (182 patients) from those admitted to Mahosot Hospital, Vientiane, were tested. The CSF from 14.5% of acute encephalitis syndrome (AES) patients and 10.1% from those with AES and meningitis were positive for anti-JEV IgM in the reference ELISA. The sensitivities for CSF were 65.4% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 51-78) (Xcyton), 69.2% (95% CI = 55-81) (Panbio), however 96.2% (95% CI = 87-100) with Panbio Ravi criteria. Specificities were 89-100%. For admission sera from AES patients, sensitivities and specificities of the Panbio ELISA were 85.7% (95% CI = 42-100%) and 92.9% (95% CI = 83-98%), respectively

Predictive diagnostic value of the tourniquet test for the diagnosis of dengue infection in adults.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the accuracy of the admission tourniquet test in the diagnosis of dengue infection among Lao adults. METHODS: Prospective assessment of the predictive diagnostic value of the tourniquet test for the diagnosis of dengue infection, as defined by IgM, IgG and NS1 ELISAs (Panbio Ltd, Australia), among Lao adult inpatients with clinically suspected dengue infection. RESULTS: Of 234 patients with clinically suspected dengue infection on admission, 73% were serologically confirmed to have dengue, while 64 patients with negative dengue serology were diagnosed as having scrub typhus (39%), murine typhus (11%), undetermined typhus (12%), Japanese encephalitis virus (5%), undetermined flavivirus (5%) and typhoid fever (3%); 25% had no identifiable aetiology. The tourniquet test was positive in 29.1% (95% CI = 23.2-34.9%) of all patients and in 34.1% (95% CI = 27.0-41.2%) of dengue-seropositive patients, in 32.7% (95% CI = 23.5-41.8) of those with dengue fever and in 36.4% (95% CI = 24.7-48.0) of those with dengue haemorrhagic fever. Interobserver agreement for the tourniquet test was 90.2% (95% CI = 86.4-94.0) (Kappa = 0.76). Using ELISAs as the diagnostic gold standard, the sensitivity of the tourniquet test was 33.5-34%; its specificity was 84-91%. The positive and negative predictive values were 85-90% and 32.5-34%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The admission tourniquet test has low sensitivity and adds relatively little value to the diagnosis of dengue among Lao adult inpatients with suspected dengue. Although a positive tourniquet test suggests dengue and that treatment of alternative diagnoses may not be needed, a negative test result does not exclude dengue

Poor performance of two rapid immunochromatographic assays for anti-Japanese encephalitis virus immunoglobulin M detection in cerebrospinal fluid and serum from patients with suspected Japanese encephalitis virus infection in Laos

Background: Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) is a leading identified cause of encephalitis in Asia, often occurring in rural areas with poor access to laboratory diagnostics. We evaluated two rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) for anti-JEV immunoglobulin M (IgM) detection. Methods: Consecutive cerebrospinal fluid and serum from 388 patients (704 samples) with suspected JEV infections admitted to six hospitals in Laos were tested with one of two SD-Bioline anti-JEV IgM RDTs and the World Health Organization standard anti-JEV IgM enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA; Panbio Japanese Encephalitis-Dengue IgM Combo ELISA. Results and Conclusions: The performance of both RDTs showed strikingly low sensitivity in comparison to anti-JEV IgM antibody capture ELISA (2.1-51.4%), suggesting low sensitivity of the RDTs. We highlight the fundamental prerequisite to validate RDTs prior to use to ensure that they meet standards for testing

Outcome of Japanese Encephalitis Virus (JEV) infection in pediatric and adult patients at Mahosot Hospital, Vientiane, Lao PDR

Although Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) infection is an important cause of acute febrile illness in Lao PDR (Laos), patient outcome has not been evaluated. We prospectively followed up 123 JEV-infected patients (70 children ≤ 15 years and 53 adults ≥ 15 years) admitted at Mahosot Hospital, Vientiane, from 2003 to 2013. Japanese encephalitis virus infection was diagnosed by the detection of anti-JEV IgM in cerebrospinal fluid and/or IgM seroconversion. Neurological sequelae were assessed using the Liverpool Outcome Score (LOS), total (maximum score = 75), and final (maximum score = 5). The median (interquartile range [IQR]) age of the patients was 12.0 (7.5–18.8) years, and 57% were male. The median (IQR) duration of patients’ follow-up was 4.5 (3.2–7.3) years. Of all patients, 10/123 (8.1%) died during hospitalization, and 13/123 (10.6%) died at home after discharge, giving a mortality of 18.7% (23/123) (33 [26.8%] patients were lost to follow-up). The frequency of neurological sequelae at the last follow-up was 61.2% (48.4% in adults and 69.4% in children, P = 0.135). The proportion of patients with severe and moderate functional impairment at the last follow-up was significantly higher in children (25%) than adults (6.5%), P = 0.042. Half of the patients who were still alive at the last follow-up (67) and for whom LOS data were available (22) had improvements in their total and final LOS between discharge and the last follow-up. The total and final LOS at discharge were not significantly different between children and adults, but total LOS at the last follow-up was significantly higher in adults than children (median [IQR]: 74.5 [73–75] versus 73.0 [73–75], P = 0.019)