Follow on to the development of spatial models of essential fish habitat for the South Inshore and Offshore Marine Plan Areas

The ability to spatially locate resources in the marine environment with confidence and at high resolution is central to marine planning and required to manage anthropogenic activities for a sustainable integrated use of the sea. Essential fish habitats are important resources due to their high ecological value in supporting critical fish life stages and their social and economic value as highlighted by ecosystem service models. As such, essential fish habitat maps may represent important supporting tools for the development of marine plan policies in England. The lack of high resolution data on essential fish habitats constitutes a major limitation for the reliable identification of high value habitats and their practical consideration in the marine planning process. To address this problem, a project (MMO (2013)) was undertaken in 2013 to improve the spatial resolution of data on essential fish habitat for fish species of commercial and / or ecological relevance in the South Inshore and South Offshore Marine Plan Areas (hereafter referred to as the South marine plan areas). MMO (2013) used empirical geospatial modelling (classification tree models) of fish survey and environmental data to generate spatial predictions of the presence of fish life stages for ten fish species in the South marine plan areas. MMO (2013) also developed a methodology to assess the confidence associated with model outputs, by combining confidence assessments on the input data and the statistical model predictive ability. The project spatial outputs therefore included maps of the predicted distribution of essential fish habitats (nursery, spawning and adult foraging rounds)for individual species with associated confidence value and onfidence maps. MMO (2013) also developed an integrative approach to combine these maps into multispecies hot spot maps (with associated confidence) identifying areas of higher ecological value based on the frequency of occurrence of the essential habitats for different species. The outputs of MMO (2013) were heavily influenced by the availability and quality of source data and scientific evidence to support the modelling logic as well as the time available to collate and prepare the data. Stakeholder consultation and model validation were recommended to improve the confidence assessment of the MMO (2013) spatial outputs. The present project follows up on this recommendation with the aim of understanding whether the MMO (2013) spatial outputs can be used to support the development of marine plan policies in England. The present project used a stakeholder consultation and validation activity to fulfil the following objectives: 1) validating the essential fish habitat maps developed in MMO (2013) against new data and expert judgement; 2) identifying additional data to improve the confidence in the MMO (2013) essential fish habitat predictions and for the application of the approach in other marine plan areas; 3) obtaining the consultees’ view on the acceptability of the MMO (2013) approach as a tool to support marine planning in England; and 4) providing recommendations to make the model as robust as possible, run the model for all marine plan areas and ensure it can be used in development of marine plans for England. The consultation engaged the Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs (Defra), the Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (Cefas), the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC) and Natural England, as well as other organisations within the UK such as Marine Scotland Science, Natural Resources Wales, Department of the Environment Northern Ireland, Agri-Food and Biosciences Institute Northern Ireland and the Inshore Fisheries and Conservation Authorities (IFCAs) within or adjacent to the South marine plan areas. A questionnaire and discussion via web conferencing were employed. Consultees were asked to provide their view on the validity of the MMO (2013) approach and to identify areas of mismatch between the MMO (2013) spatial predictions of essential fish habitats and their expert knowledge. This information was used to identify areas of reduced confidence in the MMO (2013) maps. The confidence assessment of the MMO (2013) spatial outputs was also improved by statistically validating the model predictions against independent fish survey data. This allowed the re-evaluation of the model predictive ability hence the amendment of the overall confidence associated with the MMO (2013) spatial outputs. Additional data from fish surveys or environmental data layers were also identified based on the consultees’ suggestions and on further input from the Institute of Estuarine and Coastal Studies (IECS). The associated metadata were explored in order to assess the suitability of these data to improve the MMO (2013) models and/or to allow the application of the approach to other marine plan areas. Due to the limited time available, Defra’s acceptance of the MMO (2013) approach relied on MMO and Cefas judgement and the fishery research scientist consulted in Cefas could not provide an organisation level acceptance of the suitability of the method for marine planning. Although a formal agreement has not yet been obtained, discussion with Cefas, Defra and other organisations allowed identification of strengths and weaknesses associated with the MMO (2013) approach. It was therefore possible to formulate a series of recommendations to improve the approach.The validation activity confirmed that confidence issues were mostly associated with input data layers used to obtain spatial predictions rather than model predictive ability. There was a good agreement of the accuracy of the maps with the expert knowledge and additional empirical evidence, and the statistical validation often led to an increase in the overall confidence in the spatial outputs. The importance of using expert knowledge in addition to statistical validation to refine the model outputs was highlighted during consultation and therefore it was recommended that this isincluded as a procedure within the MMO (2013) approach.The confidence improvement was evident in particular for maps of nursery habitats based on the prediction of occurrence of fish juvenile stages. In most cases these maps reached a moderate confidence after validation. Such an improvement suggests that these maps may have increased utility as spatial areas for marine planning to use in policy formulation. Further improvements of these outputs could be obtained by replacing or integrating the environmental variables used in the models with additional environmental data layers with higher confidence which were not available in this study, as suggested during consultation. This represents a further step towards the improvement of the robustness of the models and the use of the resulting spatial outputs in marine planning. A higher uncertainty was associated with the spatial prediction of spawning and adult feeding grounds relative to nursery areas and amendments to the models were identified as ways of making the models more robust and improving the confidence in their predictions. For example, the inclusion of abundance data of pelagic eggs and larvae in combination with the presence / absence data used in the current models was recommended.The exploration of additional data allowed identification of environmental data layers that should be used as new, additional parameters in the MMO (2013) models. These include variables obtained from detailed energy data layers, Terrain Ruggedness Index obtained from bathymetric data layers and chlorophyll concentration. The use of these additional environmental data has the potential to improve the prediction and confidence in the model outputs in the South marine plan areas and also in other marine plan areas, hence increasing their suitability as supporting tools for marine planning.During consultation, the limited coverage of species included in MMO (2013) was identified as an important limitation of the approach, particularly when an integrative assessment of the ecological value is undertaken by combining the information obtained from maps of essential fish habitats of individual species (as with hot spot maps). Additional fish survey data from datasets used in MMO (2013) and from additional datasets were identified as useful to increase the species coverage in the South marine plan areas (e.g. with inclusion of turbot, brill, whiting and cod) and expand the approach application to other marine plan areas. Notwithstanding the availability of additional fish survey data, not all data are suitable for modelling according to data requirements specified in MMO (2013) (e.g. wide spatial coverage of a fish survey dataset in the marine plan area). A reduced spatial coverage of suitable fish survey data in inshore areas was also identified in MMO (2013) and confirmed in this project, hence limiting the applicability of the models in these areas. The integration of the MMO (2013) spatial outputs with information from other sources better covering these areas (e.g. EA assessments of fish distribution inshore) was therefore recommended. Considering that the above limitations could possibly lead to an underestimation of the overall ecological value of an area, the use of expert knowledge to validate hot spot maps was recommended.Although a formal agreement could not be obtained within the timeline of this project, discussions are still ongoing within Cefas to provide the organisation’s view on the MMO (2013) method. The confidence improvement that would likely result from addressing the recommendations above is considered an important factor that would further increase the suitability of the spatial outputs as supporting tools for the development of marine plan policies in England

Activism, arenas and accounts in conflicts over tobacco control

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to provide theoretical and empirical insights into the effective use of external accounts by social activists in conflict arenas in order to bring about change. Design/methodology/approach - This paper presents a longitudinal case study of Action on Smoking and Health UK (ASH) and their use of external accounts and other activist practices during the period 1999-2010. The authors explore these practices from the perspective of one organisation engaged in conflict arenas concerning the (un)acceptability of tobacco production, consumption and governance. The authors conduct the exploration based upon a dynamic conflict arena framework that attends to the range of external accounting and activist practices, tactical intentions and states of conflict used by ASH to confront the tobacco industry and bring about change in tobacco governance. Findings - The study identifies the use of a diverse range of external accounts and other activist practices. This assemblage of practices was used to confront, counter-act and to co-operate with actors engaged in tobacco-related conflicts. The evidence suggests that the deployment of different types of external accounts by ASH was aligned to the context of the particular conflict arena involved, and was influenced by the strategy and engagement tactics of the activists and other actors, as well as power dynamics and acceptability of the tobacco governance in the conflict arena. Whilst ASH used different external accounts in specific episodes of activism, these individual accounts also contributed to an emerging holistic account of the unacceptable consequences of tobacco production, consumption and governance. Originality/value - This study provides new theoretical and empirical insights into how external accounts can contribute to the problematisation of governance and development of social and environmental change agendas. The dynamic conflict arena framework developed in this paper creates new visibilities and possibilities for developing external accounting practices and for researching this fast-developing area of social and environmental accounting.PostprintPeer reviewe

Spatial models of essential fish habitat (South Inshore and Offshore marine plan areas)

The aim of the project was to improve the spatial resolution of data on essential fish habitats for key fish species (both of commercial and ecological relevance) in the South Inshore and South Offshore marine plan areas, and to assess the relative value of these fish habitats to the regional commercial fisheries productivity and the ecosystem function.The report's recommendations were formulated on how to address the limitations in future studies to allow improvement of the methodology and its application

Accounting and sustainable development : reflections and propositions

This paper emerges from an invitation to reflect upon the achievements of social and environmental accounting as well as to identify the challenges that lie ahead as the field continues its engagement with the goal of sustainable development. Three perspectives are developed in pursuit of that aim, namely: exploring the nature of the issues and mode of academic inquiry that is ‘fit for purpose’ given the demands of sustainable development; considering if a de-centring of accounting and the embrace of more holistic versions of accountability would be productive for future scholarship; and an exploration of how we might conceptualise ‘engagement’ with practice in this context (and what is meant by practice and practitioner). Taken together, this paper seeks to provide points of provocation and encouragement to social and environmental accountants, critical accounting scholars and to those seeking to understand sustainable development scholarship and action.PostprintPeer reviewe

Experiences of connectivity and severance in the wake of a new motorway: Implications for health and well-being.

The construction of new urban roads may cause severance, or the separation of residents from local amenities or social networks. Using qualitative data from a natural experimental study, we examined severance related to a new section of urban motorway constructed through largely deprived residential neighbourhoods in Glasgow, Scotland. Semi-structured and photo-elicitation interviews were used to better understand severance and connectivity related to the new motorway, and specifically implications for individual and community-level health and well-being through active travel and social connections. Rather than a clear severance impact attributable to the motorway, a complex system of connection and severance was spoken about by participants, with the motorway being described by turns as a force for both connection and severance. We conclude that new transport infrastructure is complex, embedded, and plausibly causally related to connectedness and health. Our findings suggest the potential for a novel mechanism through which severance is enacted: the disruptive impacts that a new road may have on third places of social connection locally, even when it does not physically sever them. This supports social theories that urge a move away from conceptualising social connectedness in terms of the local neighbourhood only, towards an understanding of how we live and engage dynamically with services and people in a much wider geographical area, and may have implications for local active travel and health through changes in social connectedness

Global associations of key populations with HIV-1 recombinants: a systematic review, global survey, and individual participant data meta-analysis

Introduction: Global HIV infections due to HIV-1 recombinants are increasing and impede prevention and treatment efforts. Key populations suffer most new HIV infections, but their role in the spread of HIV-1 recombinants is unknown. We conducted a global analysis of the associations between key populations and HIV-1 recombinants. Methods: We searched PubMed, EMBASE, CINAHL, and Global Health for HIV-1 subtyping studies published from 1/1/1990 to 31/12/2015. Unpublished data was collected through a global survey. We included studies with HIV-1 subtyping data of key populations collected during 1990-2015. Key populations assessed were heterosexual people (HET), men who have sex with men (MSM), people who inject drugs (PWID), vertical transmissions (VERT), commercial sex workers (CSW), and transfusion-associated infections (BLOOD). Logistic regression was used to determine associations of key populations with HIV-1 recombinants. Subgroup analyses were performed for circulating recombinant forms (CRFs), unique recombinant forms (URFs), regions, and time periods. Results: Eight hundred and eighty five datasets including 77,284 participants from 83 countries were included. Globally, PWID were associated with the greatest odds of recombinants and CRFs (OR 2.6 [95% CI 2.46-2.74] and 2.99 [2.83-3.16]), compared to HET. CSW were associated with increased odds of recombinants and URFs (1.59 [1.44-1.75] and 3.61 [3.15-4.13]). VERT and BLOOD were associated with decreased odds of recombinants (0.58 [0.54-0.63] and 0.43 [0.33-0.56]). MSM were associated with increased odds of recombinants in 2010-2015 (1.43 [1.35-1.51]). Subgroup analyses supported our main findings. Discussion: As PWID, CSW, and MSM are associated with HIV-1 recombinants, increased preventative measures and HIV-1 molecular surveillance are crucial within these key populations. Systematic review registration: PROSPERO [CRD42017067164].S

Delayed mucosal antiviral responses despite robust peripheral inflammation in fatal COVID-19

Background: While inflammatory and immune responses to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in peripheral blood are extensively described, responses at the upper respiratory mucosal site of initial infection are relatively poorly defined. We sought to identify mucosal cytokine/chemokine signatures that distinguished coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) severity categories, and relate these to disease progression and peripheral inflammation. Methods: We measured 35 cytokines and chemokines in nasal samples from 274 patients hospitalized with COVID-19. Analysis considered the timing of sampling during disease, as either the early (0–5 days after symptom onset) or late (6–20 days after symptom onset) phase. Results: Patients that survived severe COVID-19 showed interferon (IFN)-dominated mucosal immune responses (IFN-γ, CXCL10, and CXCL13) early in infection. These early mucosal responses were absent in patients who would progress to fatal disease despite equivalent SARS-CoV-2 viral load. Mucosal inflammation in later disease was dominated by interleukin 2 (IL-2), IL-10, IFN-γ, and IL-12p70, which scaled with severity but did not differentiate patients who would survive or succumb to disease. Cytokines and chemokines in the mucosa showed distinctions from responses evident in the peripheral blood, particularly during fatal disease. Conclusions: Defective early mucosal antiviral responses anticipate fatal COVID-19 but are not associated with viral load. Early mucosal immune responses may define the trajectory of severe COVID-19