Weather forecasts: up to one week in advance

In this chapter, we examine how weather forecasts are made and how they may be used by the health sector. We explore why, where and when we might obtain good forecasts and why sometimes the forecasts go wrong. We consider the theoretical and practical constraints on weather forecasts and why their accuracy declines rapidly after only a few days. Knowing the limitations of weather forecasts helps us to learn how to make best use of such information

Climate information for public health action: challenges and opportunities

Throughout this book, we have sought to identify how, when and where climate information, based on historical data, monitoring products and predictions of future weather and climate can be used to inform health policy and practice. We have prioritized operational information over research opportunities to ensure a focus on practical outcomes. In this chapter, we provide a short review of climate information currently available, as described in detail in Chapters 4-9. We then explore how developments in technologies, institutional arrangements and the education of health professionals are providing new opportunities for translating climate information into a new resource for health-sector decision-making

Connecting climate information with health outcomes

In this chapter we consider a range of factors that need to be taken into account when seeking to use climate information to improve health decision-making. Identifying causal mechanisms that link climate drivers with specific health issues is an important starting point for policy-makers. Matching decision time-horizons to climate information in a way that takes account of scale issues, uncertainties in the underlying data and modelling approaches as well as institutional barriers to knowledge and data sharing is also critical. And of course, all of this is dependent on a solid understanding of the climate information (including its limitations) that is available to health decision-makers. A researcher may be satisfied with a simple times-series of climate data from an authoritative source; a decision-maker needs to know that the climate information is robust, available for routine use and scalable (i.e., can be used over the entire region of interest)

Use of rainfall and sea surface temperature monitoring for malaria early warning in Botswana

Improved prediction, prevention, and control of epidemics is a key technical element of the Roll Back Malaria partnership. We report a methodology for assessing the importance of climate as a driver of inter-annual variability in malaria in Botswana, and provide the evidence base for inclusion of climate information in a national malaria early warning system. The relationships of variability in rainfall and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) to malaria incidence are assessed at the national level after removing the impact of non-climatic trends and a major policy intervention. Variability in rainfall totals for the period December–February accounts for more than two-thirds of the inter-annual variability in standardized malaria incidence in Botswana (January–May). Both rainfall and annual malaria anomalies in December–February are significantly related to SSTs in the eastern Pacific, suggesting they may be predictable months in advance using seasonal climate forecasting methodologies

Analyzing climate variations at multiple timescales can guide Zika virus response measures

Background: The emergence of Zika virus (ZIKV) in Latin America and the Caribbean in 2014–2016 occurred during a period of severe drought and unusually high temperatures, conditions that have been associated with the 2015–2016 El Niño event, and/or climate change; however, no quantitative assessment has been made to date. Analysis of related flaviviruses transmitted by the same vectors suggests that ZIKV dynamics are sensitive to climate seasonality and longer-term variability and trends. A better understanding of the climate conditions conducive to the 2014–2016 epidemic may permit the development of climate-informed short and long-term strategies for ZIKV prevention and control. Results: Using a novel timescale-decomposition methodology, we demonstrate that the extreme climate anomalies observed in most parts of South America during the current epidemic are not caused exclusively by El Niño or climate change, but by a combination of climate signals acting at multiple timescales. In Brazil, the dry conditions present in 2013–2015 are primarily explained by year-to-year variability superimposed on decadal variability, but with little contribution of long-term trends. In contrast, the warm temperatures of 2014–2015 resulted from the compound effect of climate change, decadal and year-to-year climate variability. Conclusions: ZIKV response strategies made in Brazil during the drought concurrent with the 2015-2016 El Niño event, may require revision in light of the likely return of rainfall associated with the borderline La Niña event expected in 2016–2017. Temperatures are likely to remain warm given the importance of long term and decadal scale climate signals. Keywords: Zika virus Epidemic Climate Climate change Decadal Inter-annual El Niño Brazil Drought Vector contro

Sixth Report (Months 31-40)

This is the sixth, and final, issue of the progress reports for this project. It recognizes changes in the project amendment agreements: the first on January 1, 2009, which removed any reliance on the expected 50% joint project funding from the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation (GBMF), and where, as a result, it was agreed that the geographical scale of the project would be scaled back from regional to national with a focus on Ethiopia; the second on March 30, 2010 following required shifts in effort to IRI and University of Reading staff given the repeated failures to secure both UK and US visas for some Ethiopian trainees that lead to greater emphasis on training in region. While the primary geographical focus of activity has centered on Ethiopia the final months of the project have placed additional emphasis on travel in order to ensure project completion, maximum visibility and dissemination of project outcomes., to maximize regional awareness/impact where available

Climate information for adaptation: from years to decades

In writing this book, we have prioritized shorter timescales of weather and climate variability because these have most direct relevance to the types of operational and planning decisions made in the health sector. However, in this chapter, we focus on longer-term health decisions that require climate knowledge and information at timescales beyond a year to multiple decades (up to 50 years). This time span incorporates both natural decadal variability and the influences of anthropogenic climate change. It is an extremely challenging timeframe at which to work because of the very limited operational predictive skill at multiannual timescales, and limited confidence about how rainfall may change on longer timescales. Despite these challenges, the timescales under consideration, especially the next five to 20 years, are particularly important when considering how to adapt to climate change. Here we discuss what we do and do not know about the climate in the coming years. We then focus on the practical use of climate information in understanding observed climate impacts on health as well as the prediction of multi-annual to multi-decadal risks. The multi-annual timescale is often referred to as ‘decadal’, even though the forecasts are for periods less than a decade

Climate Services for Resilient Development (CSRD) Technical Exchange in Eastern Africa Workshop Report

In 2005, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society published its assessment of key gaps in the use of climate information for health, agriculture, water and other sectors in countries across Africa. The results from the report were less than stellar. After an extensive review of use of climate information in the development sectors of Africa, the authors concluded that the continent suffered from “market atrophy” – the reinforcing effect of zero effective supply of climate information and zero effective demand. Twelve years later, organizations such as the IRI, CSRD, CCAFS, ICPAC, and UKMO have made enormous strides at increasing both climate information supply and demand through the implementation of climate data platforms and the organizing of capacity-building seminars. In order to capitalize on the presence of the many climate and sector experts from across the IGAD region, the organizations above held a joint event, the Climate Services for Resilient Development (CSRD) Technical Exchange workshop, in Zanzibar on August 23-25, 2017, immediately after the 47th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF47). The workshop was designed to offer potential and existing users a platform to voice their needs for the development and better use of historical, monitored and forecast information for the management of drought across climate-sensitive sectors

Raised temperatures over the Kericho Tea Estates: revisiting the climate in the East African highlands malaria debate: Supplemental Information

Supplemental information to a study examining a time series of quality controlled daily temperature and rainfall data from Kericho, in the Kenyan Highlands, for the 30-year period 1 January 1979 to 31 December 2009

Raised temperatures over the Kericho tea estates: revisiting the climate in the East African highlands malaria debate

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Whether or not observed increases in malaria incidence in the Kenyan Highlands during the last thirty years are associated with co-varying changes in local temperature, possibly connected to global changes in climate, has been debated for over a decade. Studies, using differing data sets and methodologies, produced conflicting results regarding the occurrence of temperature trends and their likelihood of being responsible, at least in part, for the increases in malaria incidence in the highlands of western Kenya. A time series of quality controlled daily temperature and rainfall data from Kericho, in the Kenyan Highlands, may help resolve the controversy. If significant temperature trends over the last three decades have occurred then climate should be included (along with other factors such as land use change and drug resistance) as a potential driver of the observed increases in malaria in the region.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Over 30 years (1 January 1979 to 31 December 2009) of quality controlled daily observations ( > 97% complete) of maximum, minimum and mean temperature were used in the analysis of trends at Kericho meteorological station, sited in a tea growing area of Kenya's western highlands. Inhomogeneities in all the time series were identified and corrected. Linear trends were identified via a least-squares regression analysis with statistical significance assessed using a two-tailed t-test. These 'gold standard' meteorological observations were compared with spatially interpolated temperature datasets that have been developed for regional or global applications. The relationship of local climate processes with larger climate variations, including tropical sea surface temperatures (SST), and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was also assessed.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>An upward trend of ≈0.2°C/decade was observed in all three temperature variables (P < 0.01). Mean temperature variations in Kericho were associated with large-scale climate variations including tropical SST (r = 0.50; p < 0.01). Local rainfall was found to have inverse effects on minimum and maximum temperature. Three versions of a spatially interpolated temperature data set showed markedly different trends when compared with each other and with the Kericho station observations.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This study presents evidence of a warming trend in observed maximum, minimum and mean temperatures at Kericho during the period 1979 to 2009 using gold standard meteorological observations. Although local factors may be contributing to these trends, the findings are consistent with variability and trends that have occurred in correlated global climate processes. Climate should therefore not be dismissed as a potential driver of observed increases in malaria seen in the region during recent decades, however its relative importance compared to other factors needs further elaboration. Climate services, pertinent to the achievement of development targets such as the Millennium Development Goals and the analysis of infectious disease in the context of climate variability and change are being developed and should increase the availability of relevant quality controlled climate data for improving development decisions. The malaria community should seize this opportunity to make their needs heard.</p