Nonlinear softening as a predictive precursor to climate tipping

Approaching a dangerous bifurcation, from which a dynamical system such as the Earth's climate will jump (tip) to a different state, the current stable state lies within a shrinking basin of attraction. Persistence of the state becomes increasingly precarious in the presence of noisy disturbances. We consider an underlying potential, as defined theoretically for a saddle-node fold and (via averaging) for a Hopf bifurcation. Close to a stable state, this potential has a parabolic form; but approaching a jump it becomes increasingly dominated by softening nonlinearities. If we have already detected a decrease in the linear decay rate, nonlinear information allows us to estimate the propensity for early tipping due to noise. We argue that one needs to extract information about the nonlinear features (a "softening") of the underlying potential from the time series to judge the probability and timing of tipping. This analysis is the logical next step if one has detected a decrease of the linear decay rate. If there is no discernable trend in the linear analysis, nonlinear softening is even more important in showing the proximity to tipping. After extensive normal form calibration studies, we check two geological time series from paleo-climate tipping events for softening of the underlying well. For the ending of the last ice age, where we find no convincing linear precursor, we identify a statistically significant nonlinear softening towards increasing temperature. The analysis has thus successfully detected a warning of the imminent tipping event.Comment: 22 pages, 11 figures, changed title back, corrected smaller mistakes, updated reference

Advanced propulsion for LEO-Moon transport. 2: Tether configurations in the LEO-Moon system

This brief work discusses a possible application of a tether as a dynamical element in a low Earth orbit (LEO)-Moon transport system, and is a part of the Cal Space study of that transport system. To be specific, that study concentrated on the downward transport of O2 from the Moon to LEO, where it is stored for use as a rocket propellant, thus reducing Earth liftoff mass requirements by a factor of about 8. Moreover, in order to display clearly the role of advanced technology, only one novel technology was introduced at a single node in the transport system, the rest being 'conventional' rocket transport. Tethers were found useful in several different roles: hanging from platforms in lunar orbits, as supports for elevators, spinning in LEO, or spinning in a tether transport orbit, an elliptical orbit with perigee at approximately 600 km. This last use is considered here. Presented are the usefulness of the tether, nature of the tether system, the apparatus needed to support, deploy, and control it, and a discussion of needed developments

Normative Values for 18-30 Ages of Benton Visual Retention Test Correct Scores and Intelligence Quotients: A Short Report for Clinical Comparison

The Benton Visual Retention Test (BVRT) is a well known test used to assess visual memory deficits and visual spatial abilities in patients. There is normative data available for the 18-30 age range though it is not comprehensive and does not cover the higher intelligence quotient ranges. Findings from two studies are presented in combination for use as normative correct score values

Towards Zeptosecond-Scale Pulses from X-Ray Free-Electron Lasers

The short wavelength and high peak power of the present generation of free-electron lasers (FELs) opens the possibility of ultra-short pulses even surpassing the present (tens to hundreds of attoseconds) capabilities of other light sources - but only if x-ray FELs can be made to generate pulses consisting of just a few optical cycles. For hard x-ray operation (~0.1nm), this corresponds to durations of approximately a single attosecond, and below into the zeptosecond scale. This talk will describe a novel method to generate trains of few-cycle pulses, at GW peak powers, from existing x-ray FEL facilities by using a relatively short 'afterburner'. Such pulses would enhance research opportunity in atomic dynamics and push capability towards the investigation of electronic-nuclear and nuclear dynamics. The corresponding multi-colour spectral output, with a bandwidth envelope increased by up to two orders of magnitudes over SASE, also has potential applications.Comment: Submitted to 35th International Free Electron Laser Conference, New York, 201