Biblical Archaeology: Past, Present, and Future

This following thesis will examine the past, present, and future state of affairs in Biblical Archaeology. I will attempt to examine the field of Biblical Archaeology by examining the history of the discipline leading up to its present state, as well as examining a current problem with future ramifications. In the Section 1 I will examine past figures in Biblical Archaeology that contributed to its growth into its modem form. I also will compare past archaeological methods to the recent methods employed by Biblical archaeologists. Next, after giving an introduction to the discipline, in Section 2 I will examine a particular site where current archaeological methods are used, Hazor. Hazor is an important site in any discussion of Biblical Archaeology because of its rich history, its connection to biblical events, and its importance to biblical archaeologists (Razor is one of the most excavated tels in all of lsrael; it has been excavated by past archaeologists [Yigael Yadin] and current ones [Amnon Ben-Tor]). Also in this section, I will examine the career of current archaeologist Arnnon Ben-Tor. Dr. Ben-Tor\u27s career is important to this discussion because he is connected with the past of the discipline (studied and worked under Yigael Yadin), to the present of the discipline (his current work at Razor), and the future (his views against the minimalist idea of the Bible). Finally, in the Section 3 of this thesis, I will examine a current issue in archaeological writings and discussions which will have effects on the future of Biblical Archaeology, the minimalist vs. maximalist debate. The introduction section to Biblical Archaeology is for the purpose of informing the reader of the past of the discipline, major figures, terms, and excavation methods past and present. The next section on Hazor and Amnon Ben-Tor attempts to present to the reader a current site in the field of Biblical Archaeology, demonstrating methods used in excavation, finds, and current argued connections with archaeology and the Bible. The final section introduces the reader to a heated topic relevant to the future of Biblical Archaeology. This topic is relevant to Biblical Archaeology because of its imbedded proposal that Biblical Archaeology is essentially a worthless enterprise. These four issues work together in this thesis in order to give the reader a basic understanding of Biblical Archaeology both past and present. The goal of this thesis is to engage the conversation of Biblical Archaeology with the hopes of laying the foundation for future research, as well as to become familiar with a field important to the biblical studies enterprise

Systematic review and meta-analysis of the growth and rupture rates of small abdominal aortic aneurysms: implications for surveillance intervals and their cost-effectiveness.

BACKGROUND: Small abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs; 3.0-5.4 cm in diameter) are usually asymptomatic and managed by regular ultrasound surveillance until they grow to a diameter threshold (commonly 5.5 cm) at which surgical intervention is considered. The choice of appropriate surveillance intervals is governed by the growth and rupture rates of small AAAs, as well as their relative cost-effectiveness. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this series of studies was to inform the evidence base for small AAA surveillance strategies. This was achieved by literature review, collation and analysis of individual patient data, a focus group and health economic modelling. DATA SOURCES: We undertook systematic literature reviews of growth rates and rupture rates of small AAAs. The databases MEDLINE, EMBASE on OvidSP, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials 2009 Issue 4, ClinicalTrials.gov, and controlled-trials.com were searched from inception up until the end of 2009. We also obtained individual data on 15,475 patients from 18 surveillance studies. REVIEW METHODS: Systematic reviews of publications identified 15 studies providing small AAA growth rates, and 14 studies with small AAA rupture rates, up to December 2009 (later updated to September 2012). We developed statistical methods to analyse individual surveillance data, including the effects of patient characteristics, to inform the choice of surveillance intervals and provide inputs for health economic modelling. We updated an existing health economic model of AAA screening to address the cost-effectiveness of different surveillance intervals. RESULTS: In the literature reviews, the mean growth rate was 2.3 mm/year and the reported rupture rates varied between 0 and 1.6 ruptures per 100 person-years. Growth rates increased markedly with aneurysm diameter, but insufficient detail was available to guide surveillance intervals. Based on individual surveillance data, for each 0.5-cm increase in AAA diameter, growth rates increased by about 0.5 mm/year and rupture rates doubled. To control the risk of exceeding 5.5 cm to below 10% in men, on average a 7-year surveillance interval is sufficient for a 3.0-cm aneurysm, whereas an 8-month interval is necessary for a 5.0-cm aneurysm. To control the risk of rupture to below 1%, the corresponding estimated surveillance intervals are 9 years and 17 months. Average growth rates were higher in smokers (by 0.35 mm/year) and lower in patients with diabetes (by 0.51 mm/year). Rupture rates were almost fourfold higher in women than men, doubled in current smokers and increased with higher blood pressure. Increasing the surveillance interval from 1 to 2 years for the smallest aneurysms (3.0-4.4 cm) decreased costs and led to a positive net benefit. For the larger aneurysms (4.5-5.4 cm), increasing surveillance intervals from 3 to 6 months led to equivalent cost-effectiveness. LIMITATIONS: There were no clear reasons why the growth rates varied substantially between studies. Uniform diagnostic criteria for rupture were not available. The long-term cost-effectiveness results may be susceptible to the modelling assumptions made. CONCLUSIONS: Surveillance intervals of several years are clinically acceptable for men with AAAs in the range 3.0-4.0 cm. Intervals of around 1 year are suitable for 4.0-4.9-cm AAAs, whereas intervals of 6 months would be acceptable for 5.0-5.4-cm AAAs. These intervals are longer than those currently employed in the UK AAA screening programmes. Lengthening surveillance intervals for the smallest aneurysms was also shown to be cost-effective. Future work should focus on optimising surveillance intervals for women, studying whether or not the threshold for surgery should depend on patient characteristics, evaluating the usefulness of surveillance for those with aortic diameters of 2.5-2.9 cm, and developing interventions that may reduce the growth or rupture rates of small AAAs. FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme

Discrete Event Simulation for Decision Modeling in Health Care: Lessons from Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Screening

Markov models are often used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of new healthcare interventions but they are sometimes not flexible enough to allow accurate modeling or investigation of alternative scenarios and policies. A Markov model previously demonstrated that a one-off invitation to screening for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) for men aged 65 y in the UK and subsequent follow-up of identified AAAs was likely to be highly cost-effective at thresholds commonly adopted in the UK (£20,000 to £30,000 per quality adjusted life-year). However, new evidence has emerged and the decision problem has evolved to include exploration of the circumstances under which AAA screening may be cost-effective, which the Markov model is not easily able to address. A new model to handle this more complex decision problem was needed, and the case of AAA screening thus provides an illustration of the relative merits of Markov models and discrete event simulation (DES) models. An individual-level DES model was built using the R programming language to reflect possible events and pathways of individuals invited to screening v. those not invited. The model was validated against key events and cost-effectiveness, as observed in a large, randomized trial. Different screening protocol scenarios were investigated to demonstrate the flexibility of the DES. The case of AAA screening highlights the benefits of DES, particularly in the context of screening studies

Value of risk scores in the decision to palliate patients withruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm

Background: The aim of this study was to develop a 48‐h mortality risk score, which included morphology data, for patients with ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm presenting to an emergency department, and to assess its predictive accuracy and clinical effectiveness in triaging patients to immediate aneurysm repair, transfer or palliative care. Methods: Data from patients in the IMPROVE (Immediate Management of the Patient With Ruptured Aneurysm: Open Versus Endovascular Repair) randomized trial were used to develop the risk score. Variables considered included age, sex, haemodynamic markers and aortic morphology. Backwards selection was used to identify relevant predictors. Predictive performance was assessed using calibration plots and the C‐statistic. Validation of the newly developed and other previously published scores was conducted in four external populations. The net benefit of treating patients based on a risk threshold compared with treating none was quantified. Results: Data from 536 patients in the IMPROVE trial were included. The final variables retained were age, sex, haemoglobin level, serum creatinine level, systolic BP, aortic neck length and angle, and acute myocardial ischaemia. The discrimination of the score for 48‐h mortality in the IMPROVE data was reasonable (C‐statistic 0·710, 95 per cent c.i. 0·659 to 0·760), but varied in external populations (from 0·652 to 0·761). The new score outperformed other published risk scores in some, but not all, populations. An 8 (95 per cent c.i. 5 to 11) per cent improvement in the C‐statistic was estimated compared with using age alone. Conclusion: The assessed risk scores did not have sufficient accuracy to enable potentially life‐saving decisions to be made regarding intervention. Focus should therefore shift to offering repair to more patients and reducing non‐intervention rates, while respecting the wishes of the patient and family

Galactose Ingested with a High-Fat Beverage Increases Postprandial Lipemia Compared with Glucose but Not Fructose Ingestion in Healthy Men.

BACKGROUND: Fructose ingestion with a high-fat beverage increases postprandial lipemia when compared with glucose. It is unknown whether other sugars, such as galactose, also increase postprandial lipemia. OBJECTIVES: The objective was to assess whether galactose ingestion within a high-fat beverage increases postprandial lipemia relative to glucose or fructose. METHODS: Two experiments were conducted, which contrasted different test drinks under otherwise standardized conditions. In Experiment 1, 10 nonobese men (age: 22 ± 1 y; BMI, 23.5 ± 2.2 kg/2) ingested either galactose or glucose (0.75 g supplemented carbohydrate per⋅kilogram body mass) within a high-fat test drink (0.94 g fat per kilogram body mass). In Experiment 2, a separate group of 9 nonobese men (age: 26 ± 6 y; BMI: 23.5 ± 2.6 kg/m2) ingested either galactose or fructose (identical doses as those in Experiment 1) within the same high-fat test drink. Capillary blood was sampled before and at frequent intervals after ingestion of the test drinks for a 300-min period to determine plasma triacylglycerol, glucose, lactate, nonesterified fatty acid, and insulin concentrations. Paired t tests and 2-way, repeated-measures ANOVA were used to compare conditions within each experiment. RESULTS: The incremental AUC for triacylglycerol was greater following galactose ingestion compared with glucose (127 ± 59 compared with 80 ± 48 mmol⋅L-1 × 300 min, respectively; P = 0.04) but not compared with fructose (136 ± 74 compared with 133 ± 63 mmol⋅L-1 ×300 min, respectively; P = 0.91). Plasma lactate concentrations also increased to a greater extent with galactose compared with glucose ingestion (time-condition interaction: P < 0.001) but not fructose ingestion (time-condition interaction: P = 0.17). CONCLUSIONS: Galactose ingestion within a high-fat beverage exacerbates postprandial lipemia and plasma lactate concentrations compared with glucose but not fructose in nonobese men. These data suggest that galactose metabolism may be more similar to fructose than to glucose, providing a rationale to reassess the metabolic fate of galactose ingestion in humans. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT03439878

Projections of hydrology in the Tocantins-Araguaia Basin, Brazil: uncertainty assessment using the CMIP5 ensemble

A semi-distributed hydrological model is developed, calibrated and validated against unregulated river discharge from the Tocantins-Araguaia River Basin, northern Brazil. Climate change impacts are simulated using projections from the 41 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate models for the period 2071–2100 under the RCP4.5 scenario. Scenario results are compared to a 1971–2000 baseline. Most climate models suggest declines in mean annual discharge although some predict increases. A large proportion suggest that the dry season experiences large declines in discharge, especially during the transition to the rising water period. Most models (>75%) suggest declines in annual minimum flows. This may have major implications for both current and planned hydropower schemes. There is greater uncertainty in projected changes in wet season and annual maximum discharges. Two techniques are investigated to reduce uncertainty in projections, but neither are able to provide more confidence in the..

Endovascular or open repair strategy for ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm: 30 day outcomes from IMPROVE randomised trial

Objective To assess whether a strategy of endovascular repair (if aortic morphology is suitable, open repair if not) versus open repair reduces early mortality for patients with suspected ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm. Design Randomised controlled trial. Setting 30 vascular centres (29 UK, 1 Canadian), 2009-13. Participants 613 eligible patients (480 men) with a clinical diagnosis of ruptured aneurysm. Interventions 316 patients were randomised to the endovascular strategy (275 confirmed ruptures, 174 anatomically suitable for endovascular repair) and 297 to open repair (261 confirmed ruptures). Main outcome measures 30 day mortality, with 24 hour and in-hospital mortality, costs, and time and place of discharge as secondary outcomes. Results 30 day mortality was 35.4% (112/316) in the endovascular strategy group and 37.4% (111/297) in the open repair group: odds ratio 0.92 (95% confidence interval 0.66 to 1.28; P=0.62); odds ratio after adjustment for age, sex, and Hardman index 0.94 (0.67 to 1.33). Women may benefit more than men (interaction test P=0.02) from the endovascular strategy: odds ratio 0.44 (0.22 to 0.91) versus 1.18 (0.80 to 1.75). 30 day mortality for patients with confirmed rupture was 36.4% (100/275) in the endovascular strategy group and 40.6% (106/261) in the open repair group (P=0.31). More patients in the endovascular strategy than in the open repair group were discharged directly to home (189/201 (94%) v 141/183 (77%); P<0.001). Average 30 day costs were similar between the randomised groups, with an incremental cost saving for the endovascular strategy versus open repair of £1186 (€1420; $1939) (95% confidence interval −£625 to £2997). Conclusions A strategy of endovascular repair was not associated with significant reduction in either 30 day mortality or cost. Longer term cost effectiveness evaluations are needed to assess the full effects of the endovascular strategy in both men and women

Observations from the IMPROVE trial concerning the clinical care of patients with ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm.

BACKGROUND: Single-centre series of the management of patients with ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) are usually too small to identify clinical factors that could improve patient outcomes. METHODS: IMPROVE is a pragmatic, multicentre randomized clinical trial in which eligible patients with a clinical diagnosis of ruptured aneurysm were allocated to a strategy of endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) or to open repair. The influences of time and manner of hospital presentation, fluid volume status, type of anaesthesia, type of endovascular repair and time to aneurysm repair on 30-day mortality were investigated according to a prespecified plan, for the subgroup of patients with a proven diagnosis of ruptured or symptomatic AAA. Adjustment was made for potential confounding factors. RESULTS: Some 558 of 613 randomized patients had a symptomatic or ruptured aneurysm: diagnostic accuracy was 91·0 per cent. Patients randomized outside routine working hours had higher operative mortality (adjusted odds ratio (OR) 1·47, 95 per cent confidence interval 1·00 to 2·17). Mortality rates after primary and secondary presentation were similar. Lowest systolic blood pressure was strongly and independently associated with 30-day mortality (51 per cent among those with pressure below 70 mmHg). Patients who received EVAR under local anaesthesia alone had greatly reduced 30-day mortality compared with those who had general anaesthesia (adjusted OR 0·27, 0·10 to 0·70). CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that the outcome of ruptured AAA might be improved by wider use of local anaesthesia for EVAR and that a minimum blood pressure of 70 mmHg is too low a threshold for permissive hypotension

Exoplanet Catalogues

One of the most exciting developments in the field of exoplanets has been the progression from 'stamp-collecting' to demography, from discovery to characterisation, from exoplanets to comparative exoplanetology. There is an exhilaration when a prediction is confirmed, a trend is observed, or a new population appears. This transition has been driven by the rise in the sheer number of known exoplanets, which has been rising exponentially for two decades (Mamajek 2016). However, the careful collection, scrutiny and organisation of these exoplanets is necessary for drawing robust, scientific conclusions that are sensitive to the biases and caveats that have gone into their discovery. The purpose of this chapter is to discuss and demonstrate important considerations to keep in mind when examining or constructing a catalogue of exoplanets. First, we introduce the value of exoplanetary catalogues. There are a handful of large, online databases that aggregate the available exoplanet literature and render it digestible and navigable - an ever more complex task with the growing number and diversity of exoplanet discoveries. We compare and contrast three of the most up-to-date general catalogues, including the data and tools that are available. We then describe exoplanet catalogues that were constructed to address specific science questions or exoplanet discovery space. Although we do not attempt to list or summarise all the published lists of exoplanets in the literature in this chapter, we explore the case study of the NASA Kepler mission planet catalogues in some detail. Finally, we lay out some of the best practices to adopt when constructing or utilising an exoplanet catalogue.Comment: 14 pages, 6 figures. Invited review chapter, to appear in "Handbook of Exoplanets", edited by H.J. Deeg and J.A. Belmonte, section editor N. Batalh