Welfare-maximizing monetary policy under parameter uncertainty

This paper examines welfare-maximizing monetary policy in an estimated micro-founded general equilibrium model of the U.S. economy where the policymaker faces uncertainty about model parameters. Uncertainty about parameters describing preferences and technology implies not only uncertainty about the dynamics of the economy. It also implies uncertainty about the model's utility-based welfare criterion and about the economy's natural rate measures of interest and output. We analyze the characteristics and performance of alternative monetary policy rules given the estimated uncertainty regarding parameter estimates. We find that the natural rates of interest and output are imprecisely estimated. We then show that, relative to the case of known parameters, optimal policy under parameter uncertainty responds less to natural-rate terms and more to other variables, such as price and wage inflation and measures of tightness or slack that do not depend on natural rates.Monetary policy

Alien Registration- Williams, Thomas M. (Appleton, Knox County)

https://digitalmaine.com/alien_docs/15092/thumbnail.jp

The aspherical Cavicchioli-Hegenbarth-Repovš generalized Fibonacci groups

The Cavicchioli–Hegenbarth–Repovš generalized Fibonacci groups are defined by the presentations Gn (m, k) = 〈x 1, … , xn | xixi+m = xi+k (1 ⩽ i ⩽ n)〉. These cyclically presented groups generalize Conway's Fibonacci groups and the Sieradski groups. Building on a theorem of Bardakov and Vesnin we classify the aspherical presentations Gn (m, k). We determine when Gn (m, k) has infinite abelianization and provide sufficient conditions for Gn (m, k) to be perfect. We conjecture that these are also necessary conditions. Combined with our asphericity theorem, a proof of this conjecture would imply a classification of the finite Cavicchioli–Hegenbarth–Repovš groups

The eigenpairs of a Sylvester-Kac type matrix associated with a simple model for one-dimensional deposition and evaporation

A straightforward model for deposition and evaporation on discrete cells of a finite array of any dimension leads to a matrix equation involving a Sylvester-Kac type matrix. The eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the general matrix are determined for an arbitrary number of cells. A variety of models to which this solution may be applied are discussed.Comment: 7 pages, no figure

Scale-free networks in complex systems

In the past few years, several studies have explored the topology of interactions in different complex systems. Areas of investigation span from biology to engineering, physics and the social sciences. Although having different microscopic dynamics, the results demonstrate that most systems under consideration tend to self-organize into structures that share common features. In particular, the networks of interaction are characterized by a power law distribution, $P(k)\sim k^{-\alpha}$, in the number of connections per node, $k$, over several orders of magnitude. Networks that fulfill this propriety of scale-invariance are referred to as ``scale-free''. In the present work we explore the implication of scale-free topologies in the antiferromagnetic (AF) Ising model and in a stochastic model of opinion formation. In the first case we show that the implicit disorder and frustration lead to a spin-glass phase transition not observed for the AF Ising model on standard lattices. We further illustrate that the opinion formation model produces a coherent, turbulent-like dynamics for a certain range of parameters. The influence, of random or targeted exclusion of nodes is studied.Comment: 9 pages, 4 figures. Proceeding to "SPIE International Symposium Microelectronics, MEMS, and Nanotechnology", 11-15 December 2005, Brisbane, Australi

Groups of Fibonacci type revisited

This article concerns a class of groups of Fibonacci type introduced by Johnson and Mawdesley that includes Conway?s Fibonacci groups, the Sieradski groups, and the Gilbert-Howie groups. This class of groups provides an interesting focus for developing the theory of cyclically presented groups and, following questions by Bardakov and Vesnin and by Cavicchioli, Hegenbarth, and Repov?s, they have enjoyed renewed interest in recent years. We survey results concerning their algebraic properties, such as isomorphisms within the class, the classification of the finite groups, small cancellation properties, abelianizations, asphericity, connections with Labelled Oriented Graph groups, and the semigroups of Fibonacci type. Further, we present a new method of proving the classification of the finite groups that deals with all but three groups

Relative Sea Level Rise in the Winyah Bay-Waccamaw River Tidal System Over the Last Thirteen Years

Prediction of sea level rise (SLR) in response to climate change has been the focus of worldwide research, most focusing on the impact by human development. The research has been limited to estuaries and tidal rivers near harbors dealing with the hydrodynamics of reversing tidal flows. This article focuses on the Waccamaw River National Wildlife Refuge in coastal South Carolina where freshwater unidirectional flow is common. We examined the record of water levels in the Waccamaw and Pee Dee Rivers over the period 2007–2019 and the length of record of the United States Geographical Survey (USGS) gauge at Pawleys Island on the Waccamaw River. The Atlantic Ocean, off the southeastern coast of the US, has experienced accelerated SLR since 2000. National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration (NOAA) tide gauges from Fort Pulaski on Cockspur Island in Georgia to Beaufort, North Carolina, show significant increase in long-term SLR since then with an average since 2007 of approximately 10 mm y-1. Since the study period was less than the 18.6-year cycle of lunar precession, tidal ranges were expanding for much of the study period resulting in the rate of rise of Mean Higher High Water (MHHW; the average of the highest tide levels during each day) being greater than the rate of increase of Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW; the average of the lowest tide levels during each day) in all ocean stations. We examined water levels at NOAA and USGS gauges from Oyster Creek, in North Inlet to Conway on the Waccamaw River and Near Bucksport on the Pee Dee River. We found mean water levels increased more rapidly with distance from the ocean with an apparent SLR \u3e 40 mm y-1 at Conway on the Waccamaw and Bucksport on the Pee Dee. In contrast to the ocean NOAA gauges, the estuary/river gauges showed more rapid increase of daily minimum water level (an approximation of MLLW) than daily maximum water level (an approximation of MHHW) with an extreme of apparent rise of minimum water levels of 58 mm y-1 at Bucksport on the Pee Dee. Nearly 50% of the increase in apparent SLR was due to an increase in the annual average freshwater flow of the Pee Dee and Waccamaw Rivers. Over the past 13 years the Waccamaw National Wildlife Refuge has experienced an apparent SLR that was more than double that observed at the edge of the ocean. The rise has been greater in the height of daily low water than in the height of daily high water. The increase was driven by both tidal hydrodynamics and an increase in the rate of flow in the Pee Dee and Waccamaw Rivers. These findings have important implications for land managers, policymakers, and homeowners in the region as people in the middle to upper estuaries need to plan for rates of relative SLR rise much greater than the frequently discussed rates in the ocean