High-Dimensional Diffusive Growth

We consider a model of aggregation, both diffusion-limited and ballistic, based on the Cayley tree. Growth is from the leaves of the tree towards the root, leading to non-trivial screening and branch competition effects. The model exhibits a phase transition between ballistic and diffusion-controlled growth, with non-trivial corrections to cluster size at the critical point. Even in the ballistic regime, cluster scaling is controlled by extremal statistics due to the branching structure of the Cayley tree; it is the extremal nature of the fluctuations that enables us to solve the model.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures; reference adde

A job worth doing? Reinterpreting control, resistance and everyday forms of coping with call centre work in Glasgow

In recent decades Britain’s economic landscape has shifted from a Fordist manufacturing economy, to a labour market based on intangible forms of service work. Despite initial optimism regarding this shift, many of the replacement service jobs which workers now rely upon reflect instable, intensive and low-paying work realities. This thesis explores how low-end service work is actually experienced, as seen through the eyes of call centre workers based in Glasgow. Glasgow represents a particularly interesting case in this respect, as service work is arguably ill-suited to the traditional skill sets and worker cultures within this old industrial labour market. Despite this apparent mismatch, the thesis contends that workers possess and perform a range of coping strategies and practices that help limit the negative experience of telephone call centre work. Via interviews with workers, and non-participant observation of the call centre labour process across three different call centre settings, the thesis argues that workers can and do foster ‘lives worth living’ through a seemingly mundane, coercive, and low paying form of work. The opening of the thesis positions the research in the expanding sub-discipline of labour geography. While traditional understandings of labour and capital have tended to ignore labour’s ability to think and act, labour geography has emphasised the potential for workers to negotiate with capital through collective forms of (often union-based) ‘resistance’. In addition to resisting capital, the research argues that workers also (and more commonly) demonstrate agency whilst complying with existing structural constraints. This argument is advanced with recourse to studies from the labour process theory (LPT) tradition, in addition to the work of James C. Scott and Cindi Katz. Three main arguments are advanced throughout the thesis. Firstly, and despite the call centre typecast as that of an authoritarian and deskilled setting, it is argued that call centre capital remains responsive to the social and unpredictable nature of workers. In order to realise production, each centre is shown to draw upon the social division of labour in different ways, as well as relying upon ‘soft’ measures of control over and above forms of coercion. This is necessary in order to attain the consent of a productive call centre workforce. Secondly, and inside the labour process itself, call centre workers are shown to exhibit a range of passive and informal coping mechanisms – i.e. forms of agency – which help to improve the experience of call centre work. Crucially, these forms of coping do little to challenge managerial control in a direct sense: and this, in part, explains their effectiveness as a means of getting by. The final point relates to worker rationales behind call centre employment. Here it is argued that the subjective socio-spatial backgrounds of workers impact motivation behind call centre employment. Furthermore, worker backgrounds are shown to ‘carry over’ inside the workplace, further impacting the experience of call centre work. Ultimately pre-existing non-work subjectivities (in particular class, gender, and nationality) are shown to influence the identities that workers forge through call centre employment. By way of conclusion, the thesis attempts to feed these theoretical findings – with particular reference to findings on worker agency – back into the labour geography project

Preferences and Heterogeneous Treatment Effects in a Public School Choice Lottery

This paper combines a model of parental school choice with randomized school lotteries in order to understand the effects of being assigned to a first-choice school on academic outcomes. We outline a simple framework in which those who place the highest weight on academics when choosing a school benefit the most academically when admitted. Although the average student does not improve academically when winning a school lottery, this average impact conceals a range of impacts for identifiable subgroups of students. Children of parents whose choices revealed a strong preference for academic quality experienced significant gains in test scores as a result of attending their chosen school, while children whose parents weighted academic characteristics less heavily experienced academic losses. This differential effect is largest for children of parents who forfeit the most in terms of utility gains from proximity and racial match to choose a school with stronger academics. Depending on one's own race and neighborhood, a preference for academic quality can either conflict with or be reinforced by other objectives, such as a desire for proximity and same-race peers.

Developing an approach for tackling letterbox companies:A learning resource

This learning resource is the outcome of the Platform Seminar on Letterbox Companies which took place on November 30th, 2017 in Brussels. The aim of the Seminar was to facilitate understanding of the nature of fraudulent letterbox companies and their links to undeclared work. Discussions focussed on the challenges of identifying and tackling fraudulent letterbox companies. The event brought together Platform members, including representatives of national ministries, labour inspectorates, social security authorities, and tax authorities - as well as European-level social partners and international organisations. The Learning Resource not only reports on the seminar discussion but augments it by reporting subsequent analysis of a survey of members of the Expert Committee on Posting of Workers (ECPW) and representatives of Member State social partners

Parental Preferences and School Competition: Evidence from a Public School Choice Program

This paper uses data from the implementation of a district-wide public school choice plan in Mecklenburg County, North Carolina to estimate preferences for school characteristics and examine their implications for the local educational market. We use parental rankings of their top three choices of schools matched with student demographic and test score data to estimate a mixed-logit discrete choice demand model for schools. We find that parents value proximity highly and the preference attached to a school's mean test score increases with student's income and own academic ability. We also find considerable heterogeneity in preferences even after controlling for income, academic achievement and race, with strong negative correlations between preferences for academics and school proximity. Simulations of parental responses to test score improvements at a school suggest that the demand response at high-performing schools would be larger than the response at low-performing schools, leading to disparate demand-side pressure to improve performance under school choice.

Alcohol advertising: the last chance saloon

Research has established that alcohol advertising,1-3 like that for tobacco4 and fast food,5-7 influences behaviour. It encourages young people to drink alcohol sooner and in greater quantities. From a public health perspective, advertising of alcohol should clearly be limited. The United Kingdom has opted for a system of self regulatory controls that focuses primarily on the content of advertisements, with some limitations on the channels that can be used. This is overseen by the Advertising Standards Authority, through the Committee of Advertising Practice, which represents the interests of advertisers, agencies, and media owners.As part of its alcohol inquiry, the House of Commons health select committee wanted to explore the success of self regulation. It obtained a large number of internal marketing documents from alcohol producers and their communications agencies in order to examine the thinking and strategic planning that underpin alcohol advertising and hence show not just what advertisers are saying, but why they are saying it. Here we present the key insights to emerge

The Effect of Randomized School Admissions on Voter Participation

There is little causal evidence on the effect of economic and policy outcomes on voting behavior. This paper uses randomized outcomes from a school choice lottery to examine if lottery outcomes affect voting behavior in a school board election. We show that losing the lottery has no significant impact on overall voting behavior; however, among white families, those with above median income and prior voting history, lottery losers were significantly more likely to vote than lottery winners. Using propensity score methods, we compare the voting of lottery participants to similar families who did not participate in the lottery. We find that losing the school choice lottery caused an increase in voter turnout among whites, while winning the lottery had no effect relative to non-participants. Overall, our empirical results lend support to models of expressive and retrospective voting, where likely voters are motivated to vote by past negative policy outcomes.

An options-pricing approach to forecasting the French presidential election

A subjective probability argument suggests vote-share estimates from polling companies can be interpreted as market prices. The corresponding election constitutes the price at a known future date. This makes an options-pricing approach particularly attractive. In this setting vote-share estimates, the probability of winning the popular vote and the second-round qualification probability all have a convenient representation in terms of binary options prices. In this paper we develop options-pricing, vote-transfer and Monte Carlo methods to forecast the French presidential election. The approach fits well with the proportional and regimented two-stage nature of the French election but applies more broadly. Unusually for a French system characterised by uncertainty and constant flux the incumbent President Macron appears in a dominant position throughout the 2017 and 2022 elections albeit with no chance of an outright win in the first round

An options-pricing approach to forecasting the French presidential election

A subjective probability argument suggests vote-share estimates from polling companies can be interpreted as market prices. The corresponding election constitutes the price at a known future date. This makes an options-pricing approach particularly attractive. In this setting vote-share estimates, the probability of winning the popular vote and the second-round qualification probability all have a convenient representation in terms of binary options prices. In this paper we develop options-pricing, vote-transfer and Monte Carlo methods to forecast the French presidential election. The approach fits well with the proportional and regimented two-stage nature of the French election but applies more broadly. Unusually for a French system characterised by uncertainty and constant flux the incumbent President Macron appears in a dominant position throughout the 2017 and 2022 elections albeit with no chance of an outright win in the first round