Management flight simulators to support climate negotiations

a b s t r a c t Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) the nations of the world have pledged to limit warming to no more than 2 C above preindustrial levels. However, negotiators and policymakers lack the capability to assess the impact of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction proposals offered by the parties on warming and the climate. The climate is a complex dynamical system driven by multiple feedback processes, accumulations, time delays and nonlinearities, but research shows poor understanding of these processes is widespread, even among highly educated people with strong technical backgrounds. Existing climate models are opaque to policymakers and too slow to be effective either in the fast-paced context of policy making or as learning environments to help improve people's understanding of climate dynamics. Here we describe C-ROADS (Climate Rapid Overview And Decision Support), a transparent, intuitive policy simulation model that provides policymakers, negotiators, educators, businesses, the media, and the public with the ability to explore, for themselves, the likely consequences of GHG emissions policies. The model runs on an ordinary laptop in seconds, offers an intuitive interface and has been carefully grounded in the best available science. We describe the need for such tools, the structure of the model, and calibration to climate data and state of the art general circulation models. We also describe how C-ROADS is being used by officials and policymakers in key UNFCCC parties, including the United States, China and the United Nations

Receding ice drove parallel expansions in Southern Ocean penguins

International audienceClimate shifts are key drivers of ecosystem change. Despite the critical importance of Antarctica and the Southern Ocean for global climate, the extent of climate-driven ecological change in this region remains controversial. In particular, the biological effects of changing sea ice conditions are poorly understood. We hypothesize that rapid postglacial reductions in sea ice drove biological shifts across multiple widespread Southern Ocean species. We test for demographic shifts driven by climate events over recent millennia by analyzing population genomic datasets spanning 3 penguin genera ( Eudyptes , Pygoscelis , and Aptenodytes ). Demographic analyses for multiple species (macaroni/royal, eastern rockhopper, Adélie, gentoo, king, and emperor) currently inhabiting southern coastlines affected by heavy sea ice conditions during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) yielded genetic signatures of near-simultaneous population expansions associated with postglacial warming. Populations of the ice-adapted emperor penguin are inferred to have expanded slightly earlier than those of species requiring ice-free terrain. These concerted high-latitude expansion events contrast with relatively stable or declining demographic histories inferred for 4 penguin species (northern rockhopper, western rockhopper, Fiordland crested, and Snares crested) that apparently persisted throughout the LGM in ice-free habitats. Limited genetic structure detected in all ice-affected species across the vast Southern Ocean may reflect both rapid postglacial colonization of subantarctic and Antarctic shores, in addition to recent genetic exchange among populations. Together, these analyses highlight dramatic, ecosystem-wide responses to past Southern Ocean climate change and suggest potential for further shifts as warming continues

High-coverage genomes to elucidate the evolution of penguins

Background: Penguins (Sphenisciformes) are a remarkable order of flightless wing-propelled diving seabirds distributed widely across the southern hemisphere. They share a volant common ancestor with Procellariiformes close to the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary (66 million years ago) and subsequently lost the ability to fly but enhanced their diving capabilities. With ∼20 species among 6 genera, penguins range from the tropical Galápagos Islands to the oceanic temperate forests of New Zealand, the rocky coastlines of the sub-Antarctic islands, and the sea ice around Antarctica. To inhabit such diverse and extreme environments, penguins evolved many physiological and morphological adaptations. However, they are also highly sensitive to climate change. Therefore, penguins provide an exciting target system for understanding the evolutionary processes of speciation, adaptation, and demography. Genomic data are an emerging resource for addressing questions about such processes. Results: Here we present a novel dataset of 19 high-coverage genomes that, together with 2 previously published genomes, encompass all extant penguin species. We also present a well-supported phylogeny to clarify the relationships among penguins. In contrast to recent studies, our results demonstrate that the genus Aptenodytes is basal and sister to all other extant penguin genera, providing intriguing new insights into the adaptation of penguins to Antarctica. As such, our dataset provides a novel resource for understanding the evolutionary history of penguins as a clade, as well as the fine-scale relationships of individual penguin lineages. Against this background, we introduce a major consortium of international scientists dedicated to studying these genomes. Moreover, we highlight emerging issues regarding ensuring legal and respectful indigenous consultation, particularly for genomic data originating from New Zealand Taonga species. Conclusions: We believe that our dataset and project will be important for understanding evolution, increasing cultural heritage and guiding the conservation of this iconic southern hemisphere species assemblage.Fil: Pan, Hailin. Bgi-shenzhen; ChinaFil: Cole, Theresa L. University Of Otago; CanadáFil: Bi, Xupeng. Bgi-shenzhen; ChinaFil: Fang, Miaoquan. Bgi-shenzhen; ChinaFil: Zhou, Chengran. Bgi-shenzhen; ChinaFil: Yang, Zhengtao. Bgi-shenzhen; ChinaFil: Ksepka, Daniel T. Bruce Museum; Estados UnidosFil: Hart, Tom. University of Oxford; Reino UnidoFil: Bouzat, Juan L.. Bowling Green State University; Estados UnidosFil: Boersma, P. Dee. University of Washington; Estados UnidosFil: Bost, Charles-André. Centre Detudes Biologiques de Chizé; FranciaFil: Cherel, Yves. Centre Detudes Biologiques de Chizé; FranciaFil: Dann, Peter. Phillip Island Nature Parks; AustraliaFil: Mattern, Thomas. University of Otago; Nueva ZelandaFil: Ellenberg, Ursula. Global Penguin Society; Estados Unidos. La Trobe University; AustraliaFil: Garcia Borboroglu, Jorge Pablo. University of Washington; Estados Unidos. Global Penguin Society; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Centro Nacional Patagónico. Centro para el Estudio de Sistemas Marinos; ArgentinaFil: Argilla, Lisa S.. Otago Polytechnic; Nueva ZelandaFil: Bertelsen, Mads F.. Copenhagen Zoo; Dinamarca. University of Copenhagen; DinamarcaFil: Fiddaman, Steven R.. University of Oxford; Reino UnidoFil: Howard, Pauline. Hornby Veterinary Centre; Nueva Zelanda. South Island Wildlife Hospital; Nueva ZelandaFil: Labuschagne, Kim. National Zoological Garden; SudáfricaFil: Miller, Gary. University of Western Australia; Australia. University of Tasmania; AustraliaFil: Parker, Patricia. University of Missouri St. Louis; Estados UnidosFil: Phillips, Richard A.. Natural Environment Research Council; Reino UnidoFil: Quillfeldt, Petra. Justus-Liebig-Universit ̈ at Giessen; AlemaniaFil: Ryan, Peter G.. University of Cape Town; SudáfricaFil: Taylor, Helen. Vet Services Hawkes Bay Ltd; Nueva Zelanda. Wairoa Farm Vets; Nueva ZelandaFil: Zhang, De-Xing. Chinese Academy of Sciences; República de ChinaFil: Zhang, Guojie. BGI-Shenzhen; China. Chinese Academy of Sciences; República de China. University of Copenhagen; DinamarcaFil: McKinlay, Bruce. Department of Conservation; Nueva Zeland

High-coverage genomes to elucidate the evolution of penguins

Penguins (Sphenisciformes) are a remarkable order of flightless wing-propelled diving seabirds distributed widely across the southern hemisphere. They share a volant common ancestor with Procellariiformes close to the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary (66 million years ago) and subsequently lost the ability to fly but enhanced their diving capabilities. With ∼20 species among 6 genera, penguins range from the tropical Galápagos Islands to the oceanic temperate forests of New Zealand, the rocky coastlines of the sub-Antarctic islands, and the sea ice around Antarctica. To inhabit such diverse and extreme environments, penguins evolved many physiological and morphological adaptations. However, they are also highly sensitive to climate change. Therefore, penguins provide an exciting target system for understanding the evolutionary processes of speciation, adaptation, and demography. Genomic data are an emerging resource for addressing questions about such processes

Dairy Policy and Price Volatility

The US dairy industry is shaped by a patchwork of regulations accumulated over a long history of intervention to achieve various, sometimes conflicting, policy goals. Price supports have long been a central feature of dairy markets, but were largely withdrawn beginning in 1988. Since that time, there has been a dramatic increase in the variability of farm milk and milk product prices. The origins and desirability of volatility has been the subject of much debate; unfortunately models in existence to date have shed little light on the question due to their adoption of essentially non-dynamic methods. This article introduces a dynamic, behavioral dairy model to investigate variability and possible countermeasures. The model suggests a number of factors that may contribute to price volatility, in addition to the usual explanation of supply-chain amplification of random supply and demand shocks. The behavioral response of industry participants to price and inventory signals, the use of long-term contracting, speculative hoarding, coupled long-term cycles of processing capacity and herd size each contribute their own component of volatility. Some well-intentioned regulatory and industry policies attenuate the price signals directing milk supply to demand, exacerbating volatility, whereas price supports and the availability of trade provide some damping

Feedback complexity in integrated climate-economy models

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, 1997.Includes bibliographical references (p. 799-205).by Thomas S. Fiddaman.Ph.D

Mitogenomes uncover extinct penguin taxa and reveal island formation as a key driver of speciation

The emergence of islands has been linked to spectacular radiations of diverse organisms. Although penguins spend much of their lives at sea, they rely on land for nesting, and a high proportion of extant species are endemic to geologically young islands. Islands may thus have been crucial to the evolutionary diversification of penguins. We test this hypothesis using a fossil-calibrated phylogeny of mitochondrial genomes (mitogenomes) from all extant and recently extinct penguin taxa. Our temporal analysis demonstrates that numerous recent island-endemic penguin taxa diverged following the formation of their islands during the Plio-Pleistocene, including the Galápagos (Galápagos Islands), northern rockhopper (Gough Island), erect-crested (Antipodes Islands), Snares crested (Snares) and royal (Macquarie Island) penguins. Our analysis also reveals two new recently extinct island-endemic penguin taxa from New Zealand’s Chatham Islands: Eudyptes warhami sp. nov. and a dwarf subspecies of the yellow-eyed penguin, Megadyptes antipodes richdalei ssp. nov. Eudyptes warhami diverged from the Antipodes Islands erect-crested penguin between 1.1 and 2.5 Ma, shortly after the emergence of the Chatham Islands (∼3 Ma). This new finding of recently evolved taxa on this young archipelago provides further evidence that the radiation of penguins over the last 5 Ma has been linked to island emergence. Mitogenomic analyses of all penguin species, and the discovery of two new extinct penguin taxa, highlight the importance of island formation in the diversification of penguins, as well as the extent to which anthropogenic extinctions have affected island-endemic taxa across the Southern Hemisphere’s isolated archipelagos

Importance of mycorrhization helper bacteria cell density and metabolite localization for the Pinus sylvestris Lactarius rufus symbiosis

Mycorrhization helper bacteria, Paenibacillus sp. EJP73 and Burkholderia sp. EJP67, were used to study the importance of bacterial inoculum dose and bacterial derived soluble and volatile metabolites localization for enhancing mycorrhiza formation in the Pinus sylvestris-Lactarius rufus symbiosis, using a laboratory based microcosm. EJP73 and EJP67 produced different responses in relation to the inoculum dose; EJP73 significantly enhanced mycorrhiza formation to the same degree at all doses tested (10(5), 10(7), 10(9) and 10(10) CFU mL(-1)), whereas, EJP67 only stimulated mycorrhiza formation within a narrow range of inoculum densities (10(7) and 10(9) CFU mL(-1)). The importance of soluble bacterial metabolites was assessed by applying spent broth derived from exponential and stationary phase bacterial cultures to microcosms. No spent broth enhanced mycorrhiza formation over the control. As EJP73 produced the helper effect over a wide range of inoculum doses, this bacterium was chosen for further study. Physical separation of EJP73 from the fungal and plant symbiosis partners was carried out, in order to determine the contribution of constitutively produced bacterial volatile metabolites to the mycorrhization helper bacteria effect. When EJP73 was physically separated from the symbiosis, it had a significant negative effect on mycorrhiza formation. These results suggest that close proximity, or indeed cell contact, is required for the helper effect. Therefore, fluorescent in situ hybridization in conjunction with cryosectioning was used to determine the localization of EJP73 in mycorrhizal tissue. The cells were found to occur as rows or clusters (similar to 10 cells) within the mycorrhizal mantle, both at the root tip and along the length of the mycorrhizal short roots