On The Determination of MDI High-Degree Mode Frequencies

The characteristic of the solar acoustic spectrum is such that mode lifetimes get shorter and spatial leaks get closer in frequency as the degree of a mode increases for a given order. A direct consequence of this property is that individual p-modes are only resolved at low and intermediate degrees, and that at high degrees, individual modes blend into ridges. Once modes have blended into ridges, the power distribution of the ridge defines the ridge central frequency and it will mask the true underlying mode frequency. An accurate model of the amplitude of the peaks that contribute to the ridge power distribution is needed to recover the underlying mode frequency from fitting the ridge. We present the results of fitting high degree power ridges (up to l = 900) computed from several two to three-month-long time-series of full-disk observations taken with the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) on-board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory between 1996 and 1999. We also present a detailed discussion of the modeling of the ridge power distribution, and the contribution of the various observational and instrumental effects on the spatial leakage, in the context of the MDI instrument. We have constructed a physically motivated model (rather than some ad hoc correction scheme) resulting in a methodology that can produce an unbiased determination of high-degree modes, once the instrumental characteristics are well understood. Finally, we present changes in high degree mode parameters with epoch and thus solar activity level and discuss their significance.Comment: 59 pages, 38 figures -- High-resolution version at http://www-sgk.harvard.edu:1080/~sylvain/preprints/ -- Manuscript submitted to Ap

Modelling the water balance of Lake Victoria (East Africa) – Part 1: Observational analysis

Lake Victoria is the largest lake in Africa and one of the two major sources of the Nile river. The water level of Lake Victoria is determined by its water balance, consisting of precipitation on the lake, evaporation from the lake, inflow from tributary rivers and lake outflow, controlled by two hydropower dams. Due to a scarcity of in situ observations, previous estimates of individual water balance terms are characterized by substantial uncertainties, which means that the water balance is often not closed independently. In this first part of a two-paper series, we present a water balance model for Lake Victoria, using state-of-the-art remote sensing observations, high-resolution reanalysis downscaling and outflow values recorded at the dam. The uncalibrated computation of the individual water balance terms yields lake level fluctuations that closely match the levels retrieved from satellite altimetry. Precipitation is the main cause of seasonal and interannual lake level fluctuations, and on average causes the lake level to rise from May to July and to fall from August to December. Finally, our results indicate that the 2004–2005 drop in lake level can be about half attributed to a drought in the Lake Victoria Basin and about half to an enhanced outflow, highlighting the sensitivity of the lake level to human operations at the outflow dam.</p

Modelling the water balance of Lake Victoria (East Africa) – Part 2: Future projections

Lake Victoria, the second largest freshwater lake in the world, is one of the major sources of the Nile river. The outlet to the Nile is controlled by two hydropower dams of which the allowed discharge is dictated by the Agreed Curve, an equation relating outflow to lake level. Some regional climate models project a decrease in precipitation and an increase in evaporation over Lake Victoria, with potential important implications for its water balance and resulting level. Yet, little is known about the potential consequences of climate change for the water balance of Lake Victoria. In this second part of a two-paper series, we feed a new water balance model for Lake Victoria presented in the first part with climate simulations available through the COordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) Africa framework. Our results reveal that most regional climate models are not capable of giving a realistic representation of the water balance of Lake Victoria and therefore require bias correction. For two emission scenarios (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5), the decrease in precipitation over the lake and an increase in evaporation are compensated by an increase in basin precipitation leading to more inflow. The future lake level projections show that the dam management scenario and not the emission scenario is the main controlling factor of the future water level evolution. Moreover, inter-model uncertainties are larger than emission scenario uncertainties. The comparison of four idealized future management scenarios pursuing certain policy objectives (electricity generation, navigation reliability and environmental conservation) uncovers that the only sustainable management scenario is mimicking natural lake level fluctuations by regulating outflow according to the Agreed Curve. The associated outflow encompasses, however, ranges from 14&thinsp;m3&thinsp;day−1 (−85&thinsp;%) to 200&thinsp;m3&thinsp;day−1 (+100&thinsp;%) within this ensemble, highlighting that future hydropower generation and downstream water availability may strongly change in the next decades even if dam management adheres to he Agreed Curve. Our results overall underline that managing the dam according to the Agreed Curve is a key prerequisite for sustainable future lake levels, but that under this management scenario, climate change might potentially induce profound changes in lake level and outflow volume.</p

Can climate‐effective land management reduce regional warming?

Limiting global warming to well below 2°C is an imminent challenge for humanity. However, even if this global target can be met, some regions are still likely to experience substantial warming relative to others. Using idealized global climate simulations, we examine the potential of land management options in affecting regional climate, with a focus on crop albedo enhancement and irrigation (climate-effective land management). The implementation is performed over all crop regions globally to provide an upper bound. We find that the implementation of both crop albedo enhancement and irrigation can reduce hot temperature extremes by more than 2°C in North America, Eurasia, and India over the 21st century relative to a scenario without management application. The efficacy of crop albedo enhancement scales with the magnitude, where a cooling response exceeding 0.5°C for hot temperature extremes was achieved with a large (i.e., ≥0.08) change in crop albedo. Regional differences were attributed to the surface energy balance response with temperature changes mostly explained by latent heat flux changes for irrigation and net shortwave radiation changes for crop albedo enhancement. However, limitations do exist, where we identify warming over the winter months when climate-effective land management is temporarily suspended. This was associated with persistent cloud cover that enhances longwave warming. It cannot be confirmed if the magnitude of this feedback is reproducible in other climate models. Our results overall demonstrate that regional warming of hot extremes in our climate model can be partially mitigated when using an idealized treatment of climate-effective land management

Modelled biophysical impacts of conservation agriculture on local climates

Including the parameterization of land management practices into Earth System Models has been shown to influence the simulation of regional climates, particularly for temperature extremes. However, recent model development has focused on implementing irrigation where other land management practices such as conservation agriculture (CA) has been limited due to the lack of global spatially explicit datasets describing where this form of management is practiced. Here, we implement a representation of CA into the Community Earth System Model and show that the quality of simulated surface energy fluxes improves when including more information on how agricultural land is managed. We also compare the climate response at the subgrid scale where CA is applied. We find that CA generally contributes to local cooling (~1°C) of hot temperature extremes in mid-latitude regions where it is practiced, while over tropical locations CA contributes to local warming (~1°C) due to changes in evapotranspiration dominating the effects of enhanced surface albedo. In particular, changes in the partitioning of evapotranspiration between soil evaporation and transpiration are critical for the sign of the temperature change: a cooling occurs only when the soil moisture retention and associated enhanced transpiration is sufficient to offset the warming from reduced soil evaporation. Finally, we examine the climate change mitigation potential of CA by comparing a simulation with present-day CA extent to a simulation where CA is expanded to all suitable crop areas. Here, our results indicate that while the local temperature response to CA is considerable cooling (>2°C), the grid-scale changes in climate are counteractive due to negative atmospheric feedbacks. Overall, our results underline that CA has a nonnegligible impact on the local climate and that it should therefore be considered in future climate projections

Present‐day irrigation mitigates heat extremes

Irrigation is an essential practice for sustaining global food production and many regional economies. Emerging scientific evidence indicates that irrigation substantially affects mean climate conditions in different regions of the world. Yet how this practice influences climate extremes is currently unknown. Here we use ensemble simulations with the Community Earth System Model to assess the impacts of irrigation on climate extremes. An evaluation of the model performance reveals that irrigation has a small yet overall beneficial effect on the representation of present-day near-surface climate. While the influence of irrigation on annual mean temperatures is limited, we find a large impact on temperature extremes, with a particularly strong cooling during the hottest day of the year (−0.78 K averaged over irrigated land). The strong influence on extremes stems from the timing of irrigation and its influence on land-atmosphere coupling strength. Together these effects result in asymmetric temperature responses, with a more pronounced cooling during hot and/or dry periods. The influence of irrigation is even more pronounced when considering subgrid-scale model output, suggesting that local effects of land management are far more important than previously thought. Our results underline that irrigation has substantially reduced our exposure to hot temperature extremes in the past and highlight the need to account for irrigation in future climate projections

Alteration of Multiple Leukocyte Gene Expression Networks is Linked with Magnetic Resonance Markers of Prognosis After Acute ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction

Prognostic relevant pathways of leukocyte involvement in human myocardial ischemic-reperfusion injury are largely unknown. We enrolled 136 patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) after primary angioplasty within 12 h after onset of symptoms. Following reperfusion, whole blood was collected within a median time interval of 20 h (interquartile range: 15-25 h) for genome-wide gene expression analysis. Subsequent CMR scans were performed using a standard protocol to determine infarct size (IS), area at risk (AAR), myocardial salvage index (MSI) and the extent of late microvascular obstruction (lateMO). We found 398 genes associated with lateMO and two genes with IS. Neither AAR, nor MSI showed significant correlations with gene expression. Genes correlating with lateMO were strongly related to several canonical pathways, including positive regulation of T-cell activation (p = 3.44 x 10(-5)), and regulation of inflammatory response (p = 1.86 x 10(-3)). Network analysis of multiple gene expression alterations associated with larger lateMO identified the following functional consequences: facilitated utilisation and decreased concentration of free fatty acid, repressed cell differentiation, enhanced phagocyte movement, increased cell death, vascular disease and compensatory vasculogenesis. In conclusion, the extent of lateMO after acute, reperfused STEMI correlated with altered activation of multiple genes related to fatty acid utilisation, lymphocyte differentiation, phagocyte mobilisation, cell survival, and vascular dysfunction

Combined microsatellite and FGFR3 mutation analysis enables a highly sensitive detection of urothelial cell carcinoma in voided urine

PURPOSE: Fibroblast growth factor receptor 3 (FGFR3) mutations were reported recently at a high frequency in low-grade urothelial cell carcinoma (UCC). We investigated the feasibility of combining microsatellite analysis (MA) and the FGFR3 status for the detection of UCC in voided urine. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: In a prospective setting, 59 UCC tissues and matched urine samples were obtained, and subjected to MA (23 markers) and FGFR3 mutation analysis (exons 7, 10, and 15). In each case, a clinical record with tumor and urine features was provided. Fifteen patients with a negative cystoscopy during follow-up served as controls. RESULTS: A mutation in the FGFR3 gene was found in 26 (44%) UCCs of which 22 concerned solitary pTaG1/2 lesions. These mutations were absent in the 15 G3 tumors. For the 6 cases with leukocyturia, 46 microsatellite alterations were found in the tumor. Only 1 of these was also detected in the urine. This was 125 of 357 for the 53 cases without leukocyte contamination. The sensitivity of MA on voided urine was lower for FGFR3-positive UCC (15 of 21; 71%) as compared with FGFR3 wild-type UCC (29 of 32; 91%). By including the FGFR3 mutation, the sensitivity of molecular cytology increased to 89% and was superior to the sensitivity of morphological cytology (25%) for every clinical subdivision. The specificity was 14 of 15 (93%) for the two (molecular and morphological) cytological approaches. CONCLUSIONS: Molecular urine cytology by MA and FGFR3 mutation analysis enables a highly sensitive and specific detection of UCC. The similarity of molecular profiles in tumor and urine corroborate their clonal relation

Overcoming global inequality is critical for land-based mitigation in line with the Paris Agreement

Transformation pathways for the land sector in line with the Paris Agreement depend on the assumption of globally implemented greenhouse gas (GHG) emission pricing, and in some cases also on inclusive socio-economic development and sustainable land-use practices. In such pathways, the majority of GHG emission reductions in the land system is expected to come from low- and middle-income countries, which currently account for a large share of emissions from agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU). However, in low- and middle-income countries the economic, financial and institutional barriers for such transformative changes are high. Here, we show that if sustainable development in the land sector remained highly unequal and limited to high-income countries only, global AFOLU emissions would remain substantial throughout the 21st century. Our model-based projections highlight that overcoming global inequality is critical for land-based mitigation in line with the Paris Agreement. While also a scenario purely based on either global GHG emission pricing or on inclusive socio-economic development would achieve the stringent emissions reductions required, only the latter ensures major co-benefits for other Sustainable Development Goals, especially in low- and middle-income regions. © 2022, The Author(s)