Changes in compound extremes of rainfall and temperature over West Africa using CMIP5 simulations

International audienceThis study aims to characterize changes in compound extremes of rainfall and temperature over West Africa. For this purpose, data from CHIRPS observations, the ERA5 reanalysis, and twenty-four (24) climate models involved in the CMIP5 Project were analyzed. First, climate models were evaluated in terms of their capacity to simulate summer mean climatology and compound extremes during the historical period (1981-2005), and secondly, changes in compound extremes were examined under RCP8.5 emission scenario between the near future (2031-2055) and the far future (2071-2095) relative to the historical period. Despite the presence of some biases, the ensemble mean of the models well reproduces the compound extremes patterns over West Africa at the seasonal and intraseasonal timescales. The analysis over the historical period with CHIRPS/ERA5 dataset shows a strong occurrence of the dry/warm mode over the northern Sahel during the June-July-August-September period (JJAS; main rainy season) and over the Guinean region during the February-March-April-May season (FMAM; first and main rainy season). These strong occurrences are due to a weak and highly frequent precipitation recorded in these zones. The compound wet/warm mode is frequent in JJAS over the Sahel and the Sudanian zone (transition area between Sahel and Guinean regions), while in FMAM, its occurrence is maximum over the Guinean region. The study also shows that the dry/warm mode will increase in the whole Sahel (western and central) and in the Guinean zone in the near and far futures while the compound wet/warm mode will decrease in the whole region. This study suggests that the West Africa region will be prone to drought intensified by warmer temperatures and calls for climate action and adaptation strategies to mitigate the risks on rain-fed agriculture, energy, and on animals and human health

Projected Impact of Increased Global Warming on Heat Stress and Exposed Population Over Africa

Abstract This study investigates the impact of increased global warming on heat stress changes and the potential number of people exposed to heat risks over Africa. For this purpose a heat index has been computed based on an ensemble‐mean of high‐resolution regional climate model simulations from the Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluations embedded in the COordinated Regional Climate Downscaling EXperiment, under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5), combined with projections of population growth developed based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios (SSP1 and SSP5). Results show that by the late 21st century, the increased global warming is expected to induce a 12‐fold increase in the area extent affected by heat stress of high‐risk level. This would result in an increase of about 10%–30% in the number of days with high‐risk heat conditions, as well as about 6%–20% in their magnitude throughout the seasonal cycle over West, Central, and North‐East Africa. Therefore, and because of the lack of adaptation and mitigation policies, the exacerbation of ambient heat conditions could contribute to the exposure of about 2–8.5 million person‐events to heat stress of high‐risk level over Burkina Faso, Ghana, Niger, and Nigeria. Furthermore, it was found that the interaction effect between the climate change and population growth seems to be the most dominant in explaining the total changes in exposure due to moderate and high heat‐related risks over all subregions of the African continent

Projected Impact of Increased Global Warming on Heat Stress and Exposed Population Over Africa

This study investigates the impact of increased global warming on heat stress changes and the potential number of people exposed to heat risks over Africa. For this purpose a heat index has been computed based on an ensemble‐mean of high‐resolution regional climate model simulations from the Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluations embedded in the COordinated Regional Climate Downscaling EXperiment, under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5), combined with projections of population growth developed based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios (SSP1 and SSP5). Results show that by the late 21st century, the increased global warming is expected to induce a 12‐fold increase in the area extent affected by heat stress of high‐risk level. This would result in an increase of about 10%–30% in the number of days with high‐risk heat conditions, as well as about 6%–20% in their magnitude throughout the seasonal cycle over West, Central, and North‐East Africa. Therefore, and because of the lack of adaptation and mitigation policies, the exacerbation of ambient heat conditions could contribute to the exposure of about 2–8.5 million person‐events to heat stress of high‐risk level over Burkina Faso, Ghana, Niger, and Nigeria. Furthermore, it was found that the interaction effect between the climate change and population growth seems to be the most dominant in explaining the total changes in exposure due to moderate and high heat‐related risks over all subregions of the African continent.Plain Language Summary: This study investigates the impact of increased global warming on heat stress changes and the potential number of persons likely to be exposed to heat risks over Africa. Results show that by the end of the 21st century, the increased global warming is expected to induce a 12‐fold increase in the total area affected by dangerous heat conditions over the continent. This would result in an increase of about 10%–30% in the number of days with these heat conditions, as well as about 6%–20% in their magnitude throughout the seasonal cycle over West, Central and North‐East Africa. Therefore, because of the lack of adaptation and mitigation policies, the exacerbation of ambient heat conditions could contribute to the exposure of about 2–8.5 million person‐events to heat stress of high‐risk level over Burkina Faso, Ghana, Niger, and Nigeria. Since these heat events would be partly driven by interactions effects between climate change and population growth, efficient measures allowing not only to mitigate the increased greenhouse gas emissions, but also the effects of high heat on the human body must be urgently implemented on the affected countries' scale, in order to significantly decrease the vulnerability of their populations to potential heat‐related health problems.Key Points: Increased global warming induces more spatially and temporally widespread extreme heat events over West, Central and North‐East Africa. Populations of some West African countries are projected to be particularly exposed to moderate and high heat conditions. Change in population exposure to dangerous heat categories is mainly driven by the interaction effect between climate and population growth.Deutscher Akademischer Austauschdienst http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001655Projekt DEALhttps://esg-dn1.nsc.liu.se/search/cordex/https://esgf-data.dkrz.de/projects/esgf-dkrz/https://www.isimip.org/gettingstarted/details/31https://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/data/set/popdynamics-1-8th-pop-base-year-projection-ssp-2000-2100-rev01/data-downloadhttps://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/dataset/reanalysis-era5-single-levels?tab=for

Consequences of 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C global warming levels for temperature and precipitation changes over Central Africa

Discriminating climate impacts between 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming levels is particularly important for Central Africa, a vulnerable region where multiple biophysical, political, and socioeconomic stresses interact to constrain the region's adaptive capacity. This study uses an ensemble of 25 transient Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations from the CORDEX initiative, forced with the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, to investigate the potential temperature and precipitation changes in Central Africa corresponding to 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels. Global climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) are used to drive the RCMs and determine timing of the targeted global warming levels. The regional warming differs over Central Africa between 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels. Whilst there are large uncertainties associated with projections at 1.5 °C and 2 °C, the 0.5 °C increase in global temperature is associated with larger regional warming response. Compared to changes in temperature, changes in precipitation are more heterogeneous and climate model simulations indicate a lack of consensus across the region, though there is a tendency towards decreasing seasonal precipitation in March–May, and a reduction of consecutive wet days. As a drought indicator, a significant increase in consecutive dry days was found. Consistent changes of maximum 5 day rainfall are also detected between 1.5 °C vs. 2 °C global warming levels