Forecasting Intermittent Demand by Hyperbolic-Exponential Smoothing

Croston's method is generally viewed as superior to exponential smoothing when demand is intermittent, but it has the drawbacks of bias and an inability to deal with obsolescence, in which an item's demand ceases altogether. Several variants have been reported, some of which are unbiased on certain types of demand, but only one recent variant addresses the problem of obsolescence. We describe a new hybrid of Croston's method and Bayesian inference called Hyperbolic-Exponential Smoothing, which is unbiased on non-intermittent and stochastic intermittent demand, decays hyperbolically when obsolescence occurs and performs well in experiments.Comment: Earlier versions of this work were presented at the 25th European Conference on Operations Research, 2012; and at the 54th Annual Conference of the UK Operational Research Society, 2012. A journal version is in preparatio

The perception of touch and the ventral somatosensory pathway.

In humans, touching the skin is known to activate, among others, the contralateral primary somatosensory cortex on the postcentral gyrus together with the bilateral parietal operculum (i.e. the anatomical site of the secondary somatosensory cortex). But which brain regions beyond the postcentral gyrus specifically contribute to the perception of touch remains speculative. In this study we collected structural magnetic resonance imaging scans and neurological examination reports of patients with brain injuries or stroke in the left or right hemisphere, but not in the postcentral gyrus as the entry site of cortical somatosensory processing. Using voxel-based lesion-symptom mapping, we compared patients with impaired touch perception (i.e. hypoaesthesia) to patients without such touch impairments. Patients with hypoaesthesia as compared to control patients differed in one single brain cluster comprising the contralateral parietal operculum together with the anterior and posterior insular cortex, the putamen, as well as subcortical white matter connections reaching ventrally towards prefrontal structures. This finding confirms previous speculations on the 'ventral pathway of somatosensory perception' and causally links these brain structures to the perception of touch

Measurement of angular parameters from the decay B⁰ → K⁎0^{⁎0} μ⁺ μ⁻ in proton–proton collisions at √s 8 TeV

Angular distributions of the decay B⁰  → K$^{⁎0}$ μ⁺ μ⁻ are studied using a sample of proton–proton collisions at √s=8TeV collected with the CMS detector at the LHC, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 20.5fb⁻¹ . An angular analysis is performed to determine the P₁ and P$^{\u27}$₅ parameters, where the P$^{\u27}$₅ parameter is of particular interest because of recent measurements that indicate a potential discrepancy with the standard model predictions. Based on a sample of 1397 signal events, the P₁ and P$^{\u27}$₅ parameters are determined as a function of the dimuon invariant mass squared. The measurements are in agreement with predictions based on the standard model