Prediction of intensive care admission and hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients using demographics and baseline laboratory data

Introduction: Optimized allocation of medical resources to patients with COVID-19 has been a critical concern since the onset of the pandemic. Methods: In this retrospective cohort study, the authors used data from a Brazilian tertiary university hospital to explore predictors of Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admission and hospital mortality in patients admitted for COVID-19. Our primary aim was to create and validate prediction scores for use in hospitals and emergency departments to aid clinical decisions and resource allocation. Results: The study cohort included 3,022 participants, of whom 2,485 were admitted to the ICU; 1968 survived, and 1054 died in the hospital. From the complete cohort, 1,496 patients were randomly assigned to the derivation sample and 1,526 to the validation sample. The final scores included age, comorbidities, and baseline laboratory data. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves were very similar for the derivation and validation samples. Scores for ICU admission had a 75% accuracy in the validation sample, whereas scores for death had a 77% accuracy in the validation sample. The authors found that including baseline flu-like symptoms in the scores added no significant benefit to their accuracy. Furthermore, our scores were more accurate than the previously published NEWS-2 and 4C Mortality Scores. Discussion and conclusions: The authors developed and validated prognostic scores that use readily available clinical and laboratory information to predict ICU admission and mortality in COVID-19. These scores can become valuable tools to support clinical decisions and improve the allocation of limited health resources

Comprehensive geriatric assessment predicts mortality and adverse outcomes in hospitalized older adults

Abstract\ud \ud Background\ud Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment (CGA) provides detailed information on clinical, functional and cognitive aspects of older patients and is especially useful for assessing frail individuals. Although a large proportion of hospitalized older adults demonstrate a high level of complexity, CGA was not developed specifically for this setting. Our aim was to evaluate the application of a CGA model for the clinical characterization and prognostic prediction of hospitalized older adults.\ud \ud \ud Methods\ud This was a prospective observational study including 746 patients aged 60 years and over who were admitted to a geriatric ward of a university hospital between January 2009 and December 2011, in Sao Paulo, Brazil. The proposed CGA was applied to evaluate all patients at admission. The primary outcome was in-hospital death, and the secondary outcomes were delirium, nosocomial infections, functional decline and length of stay. Multivariate binary logistic regression was performed to assess independent factors associated with these outcomes, including socio-demographic, clinical, functional, cognitive, and laboratory variables. Impairment in ten CGA components was particularly investigated: polypharmacy, activities of daily living (ADL) dependency, instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) dependency, depression, dementia, delirium, urinary incontinence, falls, malnutrition, and poor social support.\ud \ud \ud Results\ud The studied patients were mostly women (67.4%), and the mean age was 80.5±7.9 years. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed the following independent factors associated with in-hospital death: IADL dependency (OR=4.02; CI=1.52-10.58; p=.005); ADL dependency (OR=2.39; CI=1.25-4.56; p=.008); malnutrition (OR=2.80; CI=1.63-4.83; p<.001); poor social support (OR=5.42; CI=2.93-11.36; p<.001); acute kidney injury (OR=3.05; CI=1.78-5.27; p<.001); and the presence of pressure ulcers (OR=2.29; CI=1.04-5.07; p=.041). ADL dependency was independently associated with both delirium incidence and nosocomial infections (respectively: OR=3.78; CI=2.30-6.20; p<.001 and OR=2.30; CI=1.49-3.49; p<.001). The number of impaired CGA components was also found to be associated with in-hospital death (p<.001), delirium incidence (p<.001) and nosocomial infections (p=.005). Additionally, IADL dependency, malnutrition and history of falls predicted longer hospitalizations. There were no significant changes in overall functional status during the hospital stay.\ud \ud \ud Conclusions\ud CGA identified patients at higher risk of in-hospital death and adverse outcomes, of which those with functional dependence, malnutrition and poor social support were foremost

Efficacy, Immunogenicity and Safety of an Investigational Subunit Adjuvanted Herpes Zoster Vaccine in Adults Aged 60 Years and Older: Results From the ZOE-50 and ZOE-70 Efficacy Studies

n/

Malnutrition in Hospitalized Older Patients: Management Strategies to Improve Patient Care and Clinical Outcomes

Hospital malnutrition is estimated to affect as many as one in two patients at admission, while many others develop malnutrition throughout hospitalization. Despite being a common and long-standing problem among older adults, it is often unrecognized and associated with increased use of resources and negative outcomes such as increased complications, length of stay and mortality. Nutritional screening and assessment are readily available and inexpensive procedures that provide crucial information to develop nutrition care plans. These plans should determine the need for dietary modifications, enteral or parenteral nutrition, strategies for monitoring adverse events and therapeutic success, and parameters for therapy termination. Peculiarities of the geriatric context also need to be addressed, including the level of feeding assistance that will be required and the existence of conditions such as dementia, delirium and dysphagia. Providers should remain vigilant to potential adverse events that might result from nutritional interventions, working to prevent and correct them. Refeeding syndrome is of particular concern as a life-threatening condition. Finally, successful transition of care and adequate nutrition after discharge should also be a standing part of the nutrition care plan, and include patient/caregiver education

The pervasive association between political ideology and COVID-19 vaccine uptake in Brazil: an ecologic study

Abstract Background Despite the unequivocal benefits of vaccination, vaccine coverage has been falling in several countries in the past few years. Studies suggest that vaccine hesitancy is an increasingly significant phenomenon affecting adherence to vaccines. More recently, during the COVID-19 pandemic, political views have emerged as an additional influencing factor for vaccine hesitancy. Methods In this ecologic study, we used information from publicly available databases to investigate the association between political ideology, depicted by the percentage of votes for the right-wing candidate Jair Bolsonaro in the presidential elections of 2018 and 2022, and COVID-19 vaccination in Brazilian municipalities. The primary endpoint was the COVID-19 vaccination index, calculated as the number of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered up to September 2022 divided by the number of inhabitants in each municipality. The analysis was conducted using Pearson correlation coefficients and linear regression models adjusted for HDI, the percentage of male voters, the percentage of voters who were older than 50 years old, and the percentage of voters with a middle school education or less. In addition, we explored whether the effect of the percentage of Bolsonaro voters on the COVID-19 vaccination index was modified in different quartiles of HDI using an interaction term. Results Five thousand five hundred sixty-three Brazilian municipalities were included in the analysis. For both the 2018 and 2022 elections, the percentage of votes for Jair Bolsonaro was significantly and inversely associated with COVID-19 vaccine uptake after adjustment for the sociodemographic characteristics of the voters (change in mean vaccination index in 2018 for each 1% increase in Bolsonaro voters -0.11, 95% confidence interval [CI] -0.13 to -0.08, p < 0.001; change in mean vaccination index in 2022 for each 1% increase in Bolsonaro voters -0.09, 95% CI -0.11 to -0.07, p < 0.001). We also found a statistically significant interaction between the primary predictor of interest and HDI scores, with a more significantly detrimental effect of the right-wing political stance in municipalities in the lower HDI quartiles (interaction p < 0.001 for the first HDI quartile; p = 0.001 for the second HDI quartile). Conclusion Our findings suggest that political ideologies have influenced COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy in Brazilian municipalities, affecting communities inequitably. The politicization of vaccines is a new challenge for vaccine programs. Strategies to face these challenges should include joint efforts from governments and civil society for a common public health goal

Characteristics of acutely ill hospitalized older adults, according to delirium and dementia diagnosis, 2009–2015.

<p>Characteristics of acutely ill hospitalized older adults, according to delirium and dementia diagnosis, 2009–2015.</p

Association between delirium superimposed on dementia and 12-mo mortality in acutely ill older adults; 2009–2015 (<i>n</i> = 1,144 discharges/976 patients).

<p>Association between delirium superimposed on dementia and 12-mo mortality in acutely ill older adults; 2009–2015 (<i>n</i> = 1,144 discharges/976 patients).</p

Association between delirium superimposed on dementia and hospital mortality in acutely ill older adults, 2009–2015 (<i>n</i> = 1,409 admissions/1,204 patients).

<p>Association between delirium superimposed on dementia and hospital mortality in acutely ill older adults, 2009–2015 (<i>n</i> = 1,409 admissions/1,204 patients).</p