(WP 2021-01) Counterfactual Thinking and Attribute Substitution in Economic Behavior

This paper discusses how counterfactual thinking can be incorporated into behavioral economics by relating it to a type of attribution substitution involved in choices people make in conditions of Knightian uncertainty. It draws on Byrne’s ‘rational imagination’ account of counterfactual thinking, evidence from cognitive science regarding the forms it takes, and identifies types of attribution substitution specific to economic behavior. This approach, which elucidates the reflective stage of causal reasoning, is relevant for the explanation of hypothetical causal rules suitable for diverse tasks such as planning, expectations and mental simulations and for behavioural change interventions, which take into account people’s social and institutional embeddedness. The paper closes with a discussion of how this implies a specifically social Homo sapiens individual conception

(WP 2021-02) Attribute Substitution, Counterfactual Thinking, and Heterodox Economics

This paper examines how attribute substitution (AS), central to the psychology of choice and behavioral economic reasoning, can be understood when combined with counterfactual thinking (CFT), often called ‘what if’ or ‘if only’ thinking, and how their combination creates important opportunities for the seeing heterodox economics as a single research program alternative to mainstream economics. The first section of the paper discusses AS, CFT, and what a AS-CFT behavioral framework involves, and then emphasizes how this framework departs from fundamental assumptions mainstream rational choice theory employs. The second section reviews the foundations of behavioral thinking regarding AS, describes what it involves when it includes attention to CFT, distinguishes between more automatic and more reflective types of behavioral adjustment. It notes that heterodox economics has generally emphasized ecological rationality and bounded rationality in its use of AS. The third section then discusses how six prominent heterodox approaches can each be understood to draw on this combination of AS and CFT, and how this represents common ground for a shared critique of the mainstream economic approach. What distinguishes them is how they differ regarding the weight and emphasis placed on more automatic versus more reflective types of behavioral adjustment. The fourth section argues that within this shared framework these different heterodox approaches practice a division of labor in how they address different aspects of economic life understood in behavioral and counterfactual terms

Evaluation of a Low-Cost, PC-Based Driving Simulator to Assess Persons with Cognitive Impairments Due to Brain Injury

Brain injury due to accident or stroke frequently results in cognitive impairment, reducing an individual’s ability to judge driving situations accurately. Rehabilitation professionals typically use a combination of clinical and on-road tests to determine whether an individual is safe to drive. Weighing the safety of the community, the candidate, and the driving evaluator, these on-road tests are often conducted under road, traffic and weather conditions less demanding than those that a driver might face in the “real world,” and thus may offer less than complete information regarding the candidate’s responses to such real-world driving challenges. Indeed, individuals with mild cognitive deficits may perform adequately under such testing conditions but unsafely when driving challenges increase. Complicating this situation further, those with mild to moderate acquired cognitive impairments may be largely unaware of their own limitations, and thus more intolerant of perceived delays or challenges to their desire to drive again. Although continuing advances have improved performance and fidelity while significantly reducing costs, most interactive driving simulators remain too expensive for widespread clinical application. In a project funded by the National Center for Medical Rehabilitation Research, National Institutes of Health, we sought to determine, on a pilot basis, whether a low-cost, PC-based driving simulator could provide clinicians with information useful to their efforts to assess the safe ability to drive of individuals with cognitive impairments. We developed two comprehensive simulator-based driving scenarios, one quite basic and one more challenging, and pilot-tested them on ten subjects – five with moderate cognitive impairments, and five age and sex matched-controls without impairment. The “simple” scenario was developed to match the essential demands of the first half of an existing on-road driving evaluation; the “complex” scenario was based on the second half of the on-road evaluation into which more demanding, but still common, driving challenges were integrated. Road types, lane widths, pavement markings, traffic signals, horizontal and vertical curvature, and the proximal built environment were all created in simulation to provide a convincing generic representation of the on-road test. Challenges incorporated into the “complex” phase of the scenario, which were absent from the “simple” phase, included traffic events such as: cross-traffic failing to stop at a STOP sign; pedestrians crossing the driver’s path; vehicles suddenly pulling out in front of the subject from the road shoulder; opposing thru traffic appearing suddenly from behind slower moving vehicles as the subject attempted to turn left; slower moving lead vehicles causing passing decisions; traffic streams forcing gap acceptance decisions; etc. Results from the simulator were compared to results from the on-road evaluation. In addition, data gathered from subject exit interviews was used to judge simulator verisimilitude and efficacy in changing self-awareness of deficit. Because the cognitive impairments associated with brain injury often reduce the individual’s awareness of his or her own limitations, we looked at evidence that performance on the simulator could contribute to an individual’s own understanding of his or her driving strengths and weaknesses. The results of the pilot study will lead to an enhancement of simulator capabilities, and to a comprehensive clinical trial at multiple sites. This paper will present the findings of this pilot investigation and an overview of the expanded clinical study

Development and Testing of the CRYOTSU Flight Experiment

This paper describes the development and ground testing of the CRYOTSU thermal management flight experiment. CRYOTSU incorporates three cryogenic temperature experiments and one ambient temperature experiment into a Hitchhiker (HH) Get Away Special (GAS) Canister that is currently scheduled to fly on STS-95 in October 1998. The cryogenic experiments consist of a nitrogen triple-point cryogenic thermal storage unit (CTSU), a nitrogen cryogenic capillary pumped loop (CCPL), and a hydrogen gas-gap cryogenic thermal switch (CTSW). The ambient experiment is a carbon-fiber core, paraffin-filled thermal storage unit. Test results of integrated flight canister testing are provided herein for the CTSU and CCPL experiments. Pre-integration laboratory test results are provided for the CTSW. Design information and test results for the ambient experiment are not included

The Sloan Digital Sky Survey Reverberation Mapping Project : investigation of continuum lag dependence on broad-line contamination and quasar properties

Funding: H.W.S., J.R.T., M.C.D., and L.B.F. acknowledge support from NSF grant CAREER-1945546, and with C.J.G. acknowledge support from NSF grants AST-2009539 and AST-2108668. C.R. acknowledges support from Fondecyt Regular grant 1230345 and ANID BASAL project FB210003. M.L.M.-A. acknowledges financial support from Millenium Nucleus NCN19-058 (TITANs).This work studies the relationship between accretion-disk size and quasar properties, using a sample of 95 quasars from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Reverberation Mapping Project with measured lags between the g and i photometric bands. Our sample includes disk lags that are both longer and shorter than predicted by the Shakura and Sunyaev model, requiring explanations that satisfy both cases. Although our quasars each have one lag measurement, we explore the wavelength-dependent effects of diffuse broad-line region (BLR) contamination through our sample’s broad redshift range, 0.1 < z < 1.2. We do not find significant evidence of variable diffuse Fe ii and Balmer nebular emission in the rms spectra, nor from Anderson–Darling tests of quasars in redshift ranges with and without diffuse nebular emission falling in the observed-frame filters. Contrary to previous work, we do not detect a significant correlation between the measured continuum and BLR lags in our luminous quasar sample, similarly suggesting that our continuum lags are not dominated by diffuse nebular emission. Similar to other studies, we find that quasars with larger-than-expected continuum lags have lower 3000 Å luminosities, and we additionally find longer continuum lags with lower X-ray luminosities and black hole masses. Our lack of evidence for diffuse BLR contribution to the lags indicates that the anticorrelation between continuum lag and luminosity is not likely to be due to the Baldwin effect. Instead, these anticorrelations favor models in which the continuum lag increases in lower-luminosity active galactic nuclei, including scenarios featuring magnetic coupling between the accretion disk and X-ray corona, and/or ripples or rims in the disk.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

The Sloan Digital Sky Survey Reverberation Mapping Project: Investigation of Continuum Lag Dependence on Broad-Line Contamination and Quasar Properties

This work studies the relationship between accretion-disk size and quasar properties, using a sample of 95 quasars from the SDSS-RM project with measured lags between the $g$ and $i$ photometric bands. Our sample includes disk lags that are both longer and shorter than predicted by the \citet{SS73} model, requiring explanations which satisfy both cases. Although our quasars each have one lag measurement, we explore the wavelength-dependent effects of diffuse broad line region (BLR) contamination through our sample's broad redshift range, $0.1<z<1.2$. We do not find significant evidence of variable diffuse \FeII\ and Balmer nebular emission in the root-mean-square (RMS) spectra, nor from Anderson-Darling tests of quasars in redshift ranges with and without diffuse nebular emission falling in the observed-frame filters. Contrary to previous work, we do not detect a significant correlation between measured continuum and BLR lags in our luminous quasar sample, similarly suggesting that our continuum lags are not dominated by diffuse nebular emission. Similar to other studies, we find that quasars with larger-than-expected continuum lags have lower 3000~\AA\ luminosity, and we additionally find longer continuum lags with lower X-ray luminosity and black hole mass. Our lack of evidence for diffuse BLR contribution to the lags indicates that the anti-correlation between continuum lag and luminosity is not likely to be due to the Baldwin effect. Instead, these anti-correlations favor models in which the continuum lag increases in lower-luminosity AGN, including scenarios featuring magnetic coupling between the accretion disk and X-ray corona, and/or ripples or rims in the disk.Comment: 15 pages, 10 figure

MmeI: a minimal Type II restriction-modification system that only modifies one DNA strand for host protection

MmeI is an unusual Type II restriction enzyme that is useful for generating long sequence tags. We have cloned the MmeI restriction-modification (R-M) system and found it to consist of a single protein having both endonuclease and DNA methyltransferase activities. The protein comprises an amino-terminal endonuclease domain, a central DNA methyltransferase domain and C-terminal DNA recognition domain. The endonuclease cuts the two DNA strands at one site simultaneously, with enzyme bound at two sites interacting to accomplish scission. Cleavage occurs more rapidly than methyl transfer on unmodified DNA. MmeI modifies only the adenine in the top strand, 5′-TCCRAC-3′. MmeI endonuclease activity is blocked by this top strand adenine methylation and is unaffected by methylation of the adenine in the complementary strand, 5′-GTYGGA-3′. There is no additional DNA modification associated with the MmeI R-M system, as is required for previously characterized Type IIG R-M systems. The MmeI R-M system thus uses modification on only one of the two DNA strands for host protection. The MmeI architecture represents a minimal approach to assembling a restriction-modification system wherein a single DNA recognition domain targets both the endonuclease and DNA methyltransferase activities

Cornucopia: Temporal safety for CHERI heaps

Use-after-free violations of temporal memory safety continue to plague software systems, underpinning many high-impact exploits. The CHERI capability system shows great promise in achieving C and C++ language spatial memory safety, preventing out-of-bounds accesses. Enforcing language-level temporal safety on CHERI requires capability revocation, traditionally achieved either via table lookups (avoided for performance in the CHERI design) or by identifying capabilities in memory to revoke them (similar to a garbage-collector sweep). CHERIvoke, a prior feasibility study, suggested that CHERI’s tagged capabilities could make this latter strategy viable, but modeled only architectural limits and did not consider the full implementation or evaluation of the approach. Cornucopia is a lightweight capability revocation system for CHERI that implements non-probabilistic C/C++ temporal memory safety for standard heap allocations. It extends the CheriBSD virtual-memory subsystem to track capability flow through memory and provides a concurrent kernel-resident revocation service that is amenable to multi-processor and hardware acceleration. We demonstrate an average overhead of less than 2% and a worst-case of 8.9% for concurrent revocation on compatible SPEC CPU2006 benchmarks on a multi-core CHERI CPU on FPGA, and we validate Cornucopia against the Juliet test suite’s corpus of temporally unsafe programs. We test its compatibility with a large corpus of C programs by using a revoking allocator as the system allocator while booting multi-user CheriBSD. Cornucopia is a viable strategy for always-on temporal heap memory safety, suitable for production environments.This work was supported by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) and the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL), under contracts FA8750-10-C-0237 (“CTSRD”) and HR0011-18-C-0016 (“ECATS”). We also acknowledge the EPSRC REMS Programme Grant (EP/K008528/1), the ABP Grant (EP/P020011/1), the ERC ELVER Advanced Grant (789108), the Gates Cambridge Trust, Arm Limited, HP Enterprise, and Google, Inc