Epidemiology and etiology of childhood pneumonia in 2010:estimates of incidence, severe morbidity, mortality, underlying risk factors and causative pathogens for 192 countries

BACKGROUND: The recent series of reviews conducted within the Global Action Plan for Pneumonia and Diarrhoea (GAPPD) addressed epidemiology of the two deadly diseases at the global and regional level; it also estimated the effectiveness of interventions, barriers to achieving high coverage and the main implications for health policy. The aim of this paper is to provide the estimates of childhood pneumonia at the country level. This should allow national policy–makers and stakeholders to implement proposed policies in the World Health Organization (WHO) and UNICEF member countries. METHODS: We conducted a series of systematic reviews to update previous estimates of the global, regional and national burden of childhood pneumonia incidence, severe morbidity, mortality, risk factors and specific contributions of the most common pathogens: Streptococcus pneumoniae (SP), Haemophilus influenzae type B (Hib), respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and influenza virus (flu). We distributed the global and regional–level estimates of the number of cases, severe cases and deaths from childhood pneumonia in 2010–2011 by specific countries using an epidemiological model. The model was based on the prevalence of the five main risk factors for childhood pneumonia within countries (malnutrition, low birth weight, non–exclusive breastfeeding in the first four months, solid fuel use and crowding) and risk effect sizes estimated using meta–analysis. FINDINGS: The incidence of community–acquired childhood pneumonia in low– and middle–income countries (LMIC) in the year 2010, using World Health Organization's definition, was about 0.22 (interquartile range (IQR) 0.11–0.51) episodes per child–year (e/cy), with 11.5% (IQR 8.0–33.0%) of cases progressing to severe episodes. This is a reduction of nearly 25% over the past decade, which is consistent with observed reductions in the prevalence of risk factors for pneumonia throughout LMIC. At the level of pneumonia incidence, RSV is the most common pathogen, present in about 29% of all episodes, followed by influenza (17%). The contribution of different pathogens varies by pneumonia severity strata, with viral etiologies becoming relatively less important and most deaths in 2010 caused by the main bacterial agents – SP (33%) and Hib (16%), accounting for vaccine use against these two pathogens. CONCLUSIONS: In comparison to 2000, the primary epidemiological evidence contributing to the models of childhood pneumonia burden has improved only slightly; all estimates have wide uncertainty bounds. Still, there is evidence of a decreasing trend for all measures of the burden over the period 2000–2010. The estimates of pneumonia incidence, severe morbidity, mortality and etiology, although each derived from different and independent data, are internally consistent – lending credibility to the new set of estimates. Pneumonia continues to be the leading cause of both morbidity and mortality for young children beyond the neonatal period and requires ongoing strategies and progress to reduce the burden further

Statin use and association with colorectal cancer survival and risk:Case control study with prescription data linkage

Background: In Scotland colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most common cancer and a leading cause of cancer death. Epidemiological studies have reported conflicting associations between statins and CRC risk and there is one published report of the association between statins and CRC survival.Methods: Analysis was carried out on 309 cases and 294 controls from the Scottish Study of Colorectal Cancer (SOCCS). Cox's hazard and logistic regression models were applied to investigate the association between statin use and CRC risk and survival.Results: In an adjusted logistic regression model, statins were found to show a statistically significant association for three of the four statin variables and were found to not show a statistically significant association with either all-cause or CRC-specific mortality (OR 0.49; 95%CI 0.49-1.36; p-value = 0.17 and OR 0.33; 95%CI 0.08-1.35; P-value = 0.12, respectively).Conclusion: We did find a statistically significant association between statin intake and CRC risk but not statin intake and CRC-specific mortality. However, the study was insufficiently powered and larger scale studies may be advisable.</p

Epidemiology and aetiology of maternal bacterial and viral infections in low- and middle-income countries

There have been very few systematic reviews looking at maternal infections in the developing world, even though cutting maternal mortality by three quarters is United Nation’s Millennium Development Goal number five. This systematic review has two aims. The first is to present the prevalence of parasitic infections in the developing world over the last 30 years and the second is to evaluate the quality and distribution of research in this field

Preventive zinc supplementation in developing countries: impact on mortality and morbidity due to diarrhea, pneumonia and malaria

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Zinc deficiency is commonly prevalent in children in developing countries and plays a role in decreased immunity and increased risk of infection. Preventive zinc supplementation in healthy children can reduce mortality due to common causes like diarrhea, pneumonia and malaria. The main objective was to determine all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality and morbidity in children under five in developing countries for preventive zinc supplementation.</p> <p>Data sources/ review methods</p> <p>A literature search was carried out on PubMed, the Cochrane Library and the WHO regional databases to identify RCTs on zinc supplementation for greater than 3 months in children less than 5 years of age in developing countries and its effect on mortality was analyzed.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The effect of preventive zinc supplementation on mortality was given in eight trials, while cause specific mortality data was given in five of these eight trials. Zinc supplementation alone was associated with a statistically insignificant 9% (RR = 0.91; 95% CI: 0.82, 1.01) reduction in all cause mortality in the intervention group as compared to controls using a random effect model. The impact on diarrhea-specific mortality of zinc alone was a non-significant 18% reduction (RR = 0.82; 95% CI: 0.64, 1.05) and 15% for pneumonia-specific mortality (RR = 0.85; 95% CI: 0.65, 1.11). The incidence of diarrhea showed a 13% reduction with preventive zinc supplementation (RR = 0.87; 95% CI: 0.81, 0.94) and a 19% reduction in pneumonia morbidity (RR = 0.81; 95% CI: 0.73, 0.90). Keeping in mind the direction of effect of zinc supplementation in reducing diarrhea and pneumonia related morbidity and mortality; we considered all the outcomes for selection of effectiveness estimate for inclusion in the LiST model. After application of the CHERG rules with consideration to quality of evidence and rule # 6, we used the most conservative estimates as a surrogate for mortality. We, therefore, conclude that zinc supplementation in children is associated with a reduction in diarrhea mortality of 13% and pneumonia mortality of 15% for inclusion in the LiST tool. Preventive zinc supplementation had no effect on malaria specific mortality (RR = 0.90; 95% CI: 0.77, 1.06) or incidence of malaria (RR=0.92; 95 % CI 0.82-1.04)</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Zinc supplementation results in reductions in diarrhea and pneumonia mortality.</p

Social, economic, political and health system and program determinants of child mortality reduction in China between 1990 and 2006: A systematic analysis

Between 1990 and 2006, China reduced its under-five mortality rate (U5MR) from 64.6 to 20.6 per 1000 live births and achieved the fourth United Nation’s Millennium Development Goal nine years ahead of target. This study explores the contribution of social, economic and political determinants, health system and policy determinants, and health programmes and interventions to this success

Estimating pneumonia deaths of post-neonatal children in countries of low or no death certification in 2008

BACKGROUND: Pneumonia is the leading cause of child deaths globally. The aims of this study were to: a) estimate the number and global distribution of pneumonia deaths for children 1-59 months for 2008 for countries with low (85% coverage of death certification countries was used. For 87 high child-mortality countries pneumonia death estimates were obtained by applying a regression model developed from published and unpublished verbal autopsy data from high child-mortality settings. The total number of 1-59 months pneumonia deaths for the year 2008 for these 122 countries was estimated to be 1.18 M (95% CI 0.77 M-1.80 M), which represented 23.27% (95% CI 17.15%-32.75%) of all 1-59 month child deaths. The country level estimation correlation coefficient between these two methods was 0.40. INTERPRETATION: Although the overall number of post-neonatal pneumonia deaths was similar irrespective to the method of estimation used, the country estimate correlation coefficient was low, and therefore country-specific estimates should be interpreted with caution. Pneumonia remains the leading cause of child deaths and is greatest in regions of poverty and high child-mortality. Despite the concerns about gender inequity linked with childhood mortality we could not estimate sex-specific pneumonia mortality rates due to the inadequate data. Life-saving interventions effective in preventing and treating pneumonia mortality exist but few children in high pneumonia disease burden regions are able to access them. To achieve the United Nations Millennium Development Goal 4 target to reduce child deaths by two-thirds in year 2015 will require the scale-up of access to these effective pneumonia interventions

The impact of preoperative oral nutrition supplementation on outcomes in patients undergoing gastrointestinal surgery for cancer in low- and middle-income countries:a systematic review and meta-analysis

Abstract Malnutrition is an independent predictor for postoperative complications in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We systematically reviewed evidence on the impact of preoperative oral nutrition supplementation (ONS) on patients undergoing gastrointestinal cancer surgery in LMICs. We searched EMBASE, Cochrane Library, Web of Science, Scopus, WHO Global Index Medicus, SciELO, Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature (LILACS) databases from inception to March 21, 2022 for randomised controlled trials evaluating preoperative ONS in gastrointestinal cancer within LMICs. We evaluated the impact of ONS on all postoperative outcomes using random-effects meta-analysis. Seven studies reported on 891 patients (446 ONS group, 445 control group) undergoing surgery for gastrointestinal cancer. Preoperative ONS reduced all cause postoperative surgical complications (risk ratio (RR) 0.53, 95% CI 0.46–0.60, P < 0.001, I 2 = 0%, n = 891), infection (0.52, 0.40–0.67, P = 0.008, I 2 = 0%, n = 570) and all-cause mortality (0.35, 0.26–0.47, P = 0.014, I 2 = 0%, n = 588). Despite heterogeneous populations and baseline rates, absolute risk ratio (ARR) was reduced for all cause (pooled effect −0.14, −0.22 to −0.06, P = 0.006; number needed to treat (NNT) 7) and infectious complications (−0.13, −0.22 to −0.06, P < 0.001; NNT 8). Preoperative nutrition in patients undergoing gastrointestinal cancer surgery in LMICs demonstrated consistently strong and robust treatment effects across measured outcomes. However additional higher quality research, with particular focus within African populations, are urgently required

An analysis of women's and children's health professional requirements in China in 2010 based on workload

Background: To make health services more equitable and accessible for women and children and to achieve a universal coverage, human resources for women and children&apos;s health (WCH) should be evaluated. However, since there is still no consensus on the real situation of Chinese WCH professionals, we aim with this study to compare the actual and required amount of WCH professionals for China. Methods: The data of the actual number of WCH professionals and workload of each service type was obtained by a national institution-based sampling survey. We then estimated the time that a WCH professional spends at work (annually), the time norm of each service schedule and the required number of WCH professionals based on workload. We evaluated the situation of Chinese WCH professionals in 2010 by comparing the actual and required WCH professionals and by calculating the ratios of the actual-to-required number of staff. Results: There were 515,778 health professionals providing WCH services in the investigated 5,168 medical/health institutions in 2010. Workloads of most WCH services in east areas were larger than that in the central and the west. For women&apos;s health, the numbers of required WCH professionals were 48510, 43992, 40571 and 133073 for the east, the central, the west areas and the whole nation respectively. For children&apos;s health professionals, the corresponding numbers were 56241, 36818, 40618 and 133677 for the east, the central, the west and the whole nation. Conclusions: The WCH professionals in China were sufficient for workload in 2010, there were still lots of potential capacities to provide better services, especially for women. Strategies should be taken to improve the quality of WCH professionals or their working motivation.http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000347346200001&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=8e1609b174ce4e31116a60747a720701Health Care Sciences &amp; ServicesSCI(E)[email protected]

Instrumental Variable Estimation of the Causal Effect of Plasma 25-Hydroxy-Vitamin D on Colorectal Cancer Risk: A Mendelian Randomization Analysis

Vitamin D deficiency has been associated with several common diseases, including cancer and is being investigated as a possible risk factor for these conditions. We reported the striking prevalence of vitamin D deficiency in Scotland. Previous epidemiological studies have reported an association between low dietary vitamin D and colorectal cancer (CRC). Using a case-control study design, we tested the association between plasma 25-hydroxy-vitamin D (25-OHD) and CRC (2,001 cases, 2,237 controls). To determine whether plasma 25-OHD levels are causally linked to CRC risk, we applied the control function instrumental variable (IV) method of the Mendelian randomization (MR) approach using four single nucleotide polymorphisms (rs2282679, rs12785878, rs10741657, rs6013897) previously shown to be associated with plasma 25-OHD. Low plasma 25-OHD levels were associated with CRC risk in the crude model (odds ratio (OR): 0.76, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.71, 0.81, p: 1.4×10−14) and after adjusting for age, sex and other confounding factors. Using an allele score that combined all four SNPs as the IV, the estimated causal effect was OR 1.16 (95% CI 0.60, 2.23), whilst it was 0.94 (95% CI 0.46, 1.91) and 0.93 (0.53, 1.63) when using an upstream (rs12785878, rs10741657) and a downstream allele score (rs2282679, rs6013897), respectively. 25-OHD levels were inversely associated with CRC risk, in agreement with recent meta-analyses. The fact that this finding was not replicated when the MR approach was employed might be due to weak instruments, giving low power to demonstrate an effect (<0.35). The prevalence and degree of vitamin D deficiency amongst individuals living in northerly latitudes is of considerable importance because of its relationship to disease. To elucidate the effect of vitamin D on CRC cancer risk, additional large studies of vitamin D and CRC risk are required and/or the application of alternative methods that are less sensitive to weak instrument restrictions

Exploring causality in the association between circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D and colorectal cancer risk:a large Mendelian randomisation study

Background: Whilst observational studies establish that lower plasma 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25-OHD) levels are associated with higher risk of colorectal cancer (CRC), establishing causality has proven challenging. Since vitamin D is modifiable, these observations have substantial clinical and public health implications. Indeed, many health agencies already recommend supplemental vitamin D. Here, we explore causality in a large Mendelian randomisation (MR) study using an improved genetic instrument for circulating 25-OHD. Methods: We developed a weighted genetic score for circulating 25-OHD using six genetic variants that we recently reported to be associated with circulating 25-OHD in a large genome-wide association study (GWAS) meta-analysis. Using this score as instrumental variable in MR analyses, we sought to determine whether circulating 25-OHD is causally linked with CRC risk We conducted MR analysis using individual-level data from 10,725 CRC cases and 30,794 controls (Scotland, UK Biobank and Croatia). We then applied estimates from meta-analysis of 11 GWAS of CRC risk (18,967 cases; 48,168 controls) in a summary statistics MR approach. Results: The new genetic score for 25-OHD was strongly associated with measured plasma 25-OHD levels in 2821 healthy Scottish controls (P = 1.47 x 10(-11)), improving upon previous genetic instruments (F-statistic 46.0 vs. 13.0). However, individual-level MR revealed no association between 25-OHD score and CRC risk (OR 1.03/unit log-transformed circulating 25-OHD, 95% CI 0.51-2.07, P= 0.93). Similarly, we found no evidence for a causal relationship between 25-OHD and CRC risk using summary statistics MR analysis (OR 0.91, 95% CI 0.69-1.19, P= 0.48). Conclusions: Despite the scale of this study and employing an improved score capturing more of the genetic contribution to circulating 25-OHD, we found no evidence for a causal relationship between circulating 25-OHD and CRC risk Although the magnitude of effect for vitamin D suggested by observational studies can confidently be excluded, smaller effects sizes and non-linear relationships remain plausible. Circulating vitamin D may be a CRC biomarker, but a causal effect on CRC risk remains unproven