Bracing for the Typhoon: Climate Change and Sovereign Risk in Southeast Asia

This article investigates and empirically tests the link between climate change and sovereign risk in Southeast Asia. Southeast Asian countries are among those most heavily affected by climate change. The number and intensity of extreme weather events in the region have been increasing markedly, causing severe social and economic damage. Southeast Asian economies are also exposed to gradual effects of global warming as well as transition risks stemming from policies aimed at mitigating climate change. To empirically examine the effect of climate change on the sovereign risk of Southeast Asian countries, we employ indices for vulnerability and resilience to climate change and estimate country-specific OLS models for six countries and a fixed effects panel using monthly data for the period 2002–2018. Both the country-specific and the panel results show that greater climate vulnerability appears to have a sizable positive effect on sovereign bond yields, while greater resilience to climate change has an offsetting effect, albeit to a lesser extent. A higher cost of debt holds back much-needed investment in public infrastructure and climate adaptation, increases the risk of debt sustainability problems, and diminishes the development prospects of Southeast Asian countries

Influencing resilience: The role of policy entrepreneurs in mainstreaming climate adaptation

One way to make development pathways more resilient in the face of a changing climate has been through mainstreaming adaptation into government policies, planning and sectoral decision‐making. To date, many of the transferable lessons have taken the form of technical approaches such as risk assessments and toolkits. This article instead draws on evidence from South Asia to emphasise some of the more tacit and informal approaches used to influence adaptation policy. Despite their apparent significance in policy processes, such tactics are often neither planned for nor well reported in resilience‐building projects and programme documents. Using evidence to populate a typology of influencing strategies, this article looks particularly at the role of policy entrepreneurs who navigate the political complexity of both formal and informal governance systems to promote successful adaptation mainstreaming. It concludes with recommendations for adaptation and resilience programming that can more effectively harness the breadth of influencing strategies

Private opportunities, public benefits? The scope for private finance to deliver low-carbon transport systems in Kigali, Rwanda

A significant portion of finance for a low-carbon transition is expected to come from private sources. This may be particularly the case in the transport sector, where there is a large private sector presence and substantial investment needs, and in low-income countries, where climate action is unlikely to be the first priority for public finances. However, it is unclear whether private finance can deliver the full range of actions that are needed for a low carbon transition, or what role the public sector can and should play to mobilise these resources. Kigali, the capital of Rwanda, is one of many cities in lower and middle income countries seeking to break away from business-as-usual trajectories and pursue more sustainable forms of urban development. In this paper, the economic case for a large set of low carbon transport investments in Kigali, Rwanda, is analysed from the perspective of a private investor and from the perspective of the city as an economic unit drawing on a data and methods used in a city-wide review of low carbon study of Kigali conducted in 2015 by the Climate Smart Cities team at the University of Leeds. Comparing the public and private perspectives provides the opportunity to explore the financing mechanisms and policy frameworks appropriate for different kinds of low-carbon investment, and to consider how governments in developing countries can lay the foundations for compact, connected low-carbon cities