Seismicity and Tectonics of the Northern Gulf of California Region, Mexico. Preliminary Results

Three new seismographic statioms have been established· in the northern Gulf of California region; Mexico. Seismicity ,during a representative period in April and May of 1969 was concentrated on the Imperial, San Jacinto, Sierra Juarez, .and San Miguel faults, and the spread of epicentral locations was m\!Ch less than had previously been indicated. An intense earthquake swarm in March of· 1969 occurred near Consag Rock in the northern Gulf, and its study contributes to our understanding of the regional tectonics. In the northern Gulf of California and adjacent Salton trough, the tectonic framework may be. approximated by a series of six transform faults connected by five spreading centers (ridge, segments) evidenced by geothermal areas, recent .. volcanic activity, earthquake swarms, and submarine topographic depressions. Complexities in the fault pattern may be related to a northward decrease in spreading rates along the ridge segment,s. Five new high; quality seismographic stations around the •Gulf of California are now under construction in order to understand in more detail the pattern of sea-floor spreading in this unique, and important region

Experimental application to a water delivery canal of a distributed MPC with stability constraints

In this work, a novel distributed MPC algorithm, denoted D-SIORHC, is applied to upstream local control of a pilot water delivery canal. The D-SIORHC algorithm is based on MPC control agents that incorporate stability constraints and communicate only with their adjacent neighbors in order to achieve a coordinated action. Experimental results that show the effect of the parameters configuring the local controllers are presented

Probabilities of Large Earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay Region, California

In 1987 a Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities was organized by the U.S. Geological Survey at the recommendation of the National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC). The membership included representatives from private industry, academia, and the U.S. Geological Survey. The Working Group computed long-term probabilities of earthquakes along the major faults of the San Andreas fault system on the basis of consensus interpretations of information then available. Faults considered by the Working Group included the San Andreas fault proper, the San Jacinto and Imperial-faults of southern California, and the Hayward fault of northern California. The Working Group issued a final report of its findings in 1988 (Working Group, 1988) that was reviewed and endorsed by NEPEC. As a consequence of the magnitude 7.1 Loma Prieta, California, earthquake of October 17, 1989, a second Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities was organized under the auspices of NEPEC. Its charge was to review and, as necessary, revise the findings of the 1988 report on the probability of large earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay region. In particular, the Working Group was requested to examine the probabilities of large earthquakes in the context of new interpretations or physical changes resulting from the Loma Prieta earthquake. In addition, it was to consider new information pertaining to the San Andreas and other faults in the region obtained subsequent to the release of the 1988 report. Insofar as modified techniques and improved data have been used in this study, the same approach might also, of course, modify the probabilities for southern California. This reevaluation has, however, been specifically limited to the San Francisco Bay region. This report is intended to summarize the collective knowledge and judgments of a diverse group of earthquake scientists to assist in formulation of rational earthquake policies. A considerable body of information about active faults in the San Francisco Bay region leads to the conclusion that major earthquakes are likely within the next tens of years. Several techniques can be used to compute probabilities of future earthquakes, although there are uncertainties about the validity of specific assumptions or models that must be made when applying these techniques. The body of this report describes the data and detailed assumptions that lead to specific probabilities for different fault segments. Additional data and future advances in our understanding of earthquake physics may alter the way that these probabilities are estimated. Even though this uncertainty must be acknowledged, we emphasize that the findings of this report are supported by other lines of argument and are consistent with our best understanding of the likelihood for the occurrence of earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay region

Aseismic Inflation of Westdahl Volcano, Alaska, Revealed by Satellite Radar Interferometry

Westdahl volcano, located at the west end of Unimak Island in the central Aleutian volcanic arc, Alaska, is a broad shield that produced moderate-sized eruptions in 1964, 1978–79, and 1991–92. Satellite radar interferometry detected about 17 cm of volcano-wide inflation from September 1993 to October 1998. Multiple independent interferograms reveal that the deformation rate has not been steady; more inflation occurred from 1993 to 1995 than from 1995 to 1998. Numerical modeling indicates that a source located about 9 km beneath the center of the volcano inflated by about 0.05 km³ from 1993 to 1998. On the basis of the timing and volume of recent eruptions at Westdahl and the fact that it has been inflating for more than 5 years, the next eruption can be expected within the next several years

Aseismic Inflation of Westdahl Volcano, Alaska, Revealed by Satellite Radar Interferometry

Westdahl volcano, located at the west end of Unimak Island in the central Aleutian volcanic arc, Alaska, is a broad shield that produced moderate-sized eruptions in 1964, 1978–79, and 1991–92. Satellite radar interferometry detected about 17 cm of volcano-wide inflation from September 1993 to October 1998. Multiple independent interferograms reveal that the deformation rate has not been steady; more inflation occurred from 1993 to 1995 than from 1995 to 1998. Numerical modeling indicates that a source located about 9 km beneath the center of the volcano inflated by about 0.05 km³ from 1993 to 1998. On the basis of the timing and volume of recent eruptions at Westdahl and the fact that it has been inflating for more than 5 years, the next eruption can be expected within the next several years

Appendix C—Deformation Models for UCERF3

This document describes efforts to best characterize seismogenic deformation in and near California. The rate of hazardous earthquakes in California is expected to be proportional to deformation rates; in particular, the rates at which faults slip. Fault slip rates are determined from offsets of geologic and geomorphic features of measured age and by modeling geodetically determined surface displacement rates. Extensive use of geodesy in the form of Global Positioning System (GPS) observations is a new feature brought into the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP) forecasts for the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, version 3 (UCERF3) model. Geodetic measurements are potentially more spatially comprehensive than geologic offset observations, which can be clustered. Applying either type of data is subject to considerable uncertainty. Geologic observations have dating and other measurement errors, and they often must be extrapolated long distances on fault sections. However, geodetic observations require a modeling step to translate them into estimates of fault slip rate, and they have poor resolution on closely spaced, locked faults. Details about fault slip rates from geologic offsets are presented in appendix B (this report). In this appendix we look at three deformation models that use geologic and geodetic constraints and compare/contrast them with the UCERF3 geological model and the UCERF2 deformation model. We present models, results, and evaluation for their use in the UCERF3 forecast