Risk, Unexpected Uncertainty, and Estimation Uncertainty: Bayesian Learning in Unstable Settings

Recently, evidence has emerged that humans approach learning using Bayesian updating rather than (model-free) reinforcement algorithms in a six-arm restless bandit problem. Here, we investigate what this implies for human appreciation of uncertainty. In our task, a Bayesian learner distinguishes three equally salient levels of uncertainty. First, the Bayesian perceives irreducible uncertainty or risk: even knowing the payoff probabilities of a given arm, the outcome remains uncertain. Second, there is (parameter) estimation uncertainty or ambiguity: payoff probabilities are unknown and need to be estimated. Third, the outcome probabilities of the arms change: the sudden jumps are referred to as unexpected uncertainty. We document how the three levels of uncertainty evolved during the course of our experiment and how it affected the learning rate. We then zoom in on estimation uncertainty, which has been suggested to be a driving force in exploration, in spite of evidence of widespread aversion to ambiguity. Our data corroborate the latter. We discuss neural evidence that foreshadowed the ability of humans to distinguish between the three levels of uncertainty. Finally, we investigate the boundaries of human capacity to implement Bayesian learning. We repeat the experiment with different instructions, reflecting varying levels of structural uncertainty. Under this fourth notion of uncertainty, choices were no better explained by Bayesian updating than by (model-free) reinforcement learning. Exit questionnaires revealed that participants remained unaware of the presence of unexpected uncertainty and failed to acquire the right model with which to implement Bayesian updating

Metabolic analysis of the interaction between plants and herbivores

Insect herbivores by necessity have to deal with a large arsenal of plant defence metabolites. The levels of defence compounds may be increased by insect damage. These induced plant responses may also affect the metabolism and performance of successive insect herbivores. As the chemical nature of induced responses is largely unknown, global metabolomic analyses are a valuable tool to gain more insight into the metabolites possibly involved in such interactions. This study analyzed the interaction between feral cabbage (Brassica oleracea) and small cabbage white caterpillars (Pieris rapae) and how previous attacks to the plant affect the caterpillar metabolism. Because plants may be induced by shoot and root herbivory, we compared shoot and root induction by treating the plants on either plant part with jasmonic acid. Extracts of the plants and the caterpillars were chemically analysed using Ultra Performance Liquid Chromatography/Time of Flight Mass Spectrometry (UPLCT/MS). The study revealed that the levels of three structurally related coumaroylquinic acids were elevated in plants treated on the shoot. The levels of these compounds in plants and caterpillars were highly correlated: these compounds were defined as the ‘metabolic interface’. The role of these metabolites could only be discovered using simultaneous analysis of the plant and caterpillar metabolomes. We conclude that a metabolomics approach is useful in discovering unexpected bioactive compounds involved in ecological interactions between plants and their herbivores and higher trophic levels.

Measurement of Exclusive B Decays to Final States Containing a Charmed Baryon

Using data collected by the CLEO detector in the Upsilon(4S) region, we report new measurements of the exclusive decays of B mesons into final states of the type Lambda_c^+ p-bar n(pi), where n=0,1,2,3. We find signals in modes with one, two and three pions and an upper limit for the two body decay Lambda_c^+ pbar. We also make the first measurements of exclusive decays of B mesons to Sigma_c p-bar n(pi), where n=0,1,2. We find signals in modes with one and two pions and an upper limit for the two body decay Sigma_c p-bar. Measurements of these modes shed light on the mechanisms involved in B decays to baryons.Comment: 11 pages postscript, also available through http://w4.lns.cornell.edu/public/CLNS, submitted to PR

Measurement of the Masses and Widths of the Sigma_c^++ and Sigma_c^0 Charmed Baryons

Using data recorded by the CLEO II and CLEO II.V detector configurations at CESR, we report new measurements of the masses of the Sigma_c^{++} and Sigma_c^0 charmed baryons, and the first measurements of their intrinsic widths. We find M(Sigma_c^{++}) - M(Lambda_c^+) = 167.4 +- 0.1 +- 0.2 MeV, Gamma(Sigma_c^{++}) = 2.3 +- 0.2 +- 0.3 MeV, and M(Sigma_c^0) - M(Lambda_c^+) = 167.2 +- 0.1 +- 0.2 MeV, Gamma(Sigma_c^0) = 2.5 +- 0.2 +- 0.3 MeV, where the uncertainties are statistical and systematic, respectively.Comment: 9 pages postscript, also available through http://w4.lns.cornell.edu/public/CLNS, submitted to PRD, Rapid Communications. Reference [13] correcte

Evidence for the Decay D0→K+π−π+π−D^0\to K^+ \pi^-\pi^+\pi^-

We present a search for the ``wrong-sign'' decay D0 -> K+ pi- pi+ pi- using 9 fb-1 of e+e- collisions on and just below the Upsilon(4S) resonance. This decay can occur either through a doubly Cabibbo-suppressed process or through mixing to a D0bar followed by a Cabibbo-favored process. Our result for the time-integrated wrong-sign rate relative to the decay D0 -> K- pi+ pi- pi+ is (0.0041 +0.0012-0.0011(stat.) +-0.0004(syst.))x(1.07 +-0.10)(phase space), which has a statistical significance of 3.9 standard deviations.Comment: 9 pages postscript, also available through http://w4.lns.cornell.edu/public/CLNS, submitted to PR

Hadronic Mass Moments in Inclusive Semileptonic B Meson Decays

We have measured the first and second moments of the hadronic mass-squared distribution in B -> X_c l nu, for P(lepton) > 1.5 GeV/c. We find <M_X^2 - M_D[Bar]^2> = 0.251 +- 0.066 GeV^2, )^2 > = 0.576 +- 0.170 GeV^4, where M_D[Bar] is the spin-averaged D meson mass. From that first moment and the first moment of the photon energy spectrum in b -> s gamma, we find the HQET parameter lambda_1 (MS[Bar], to order 1/M^3 and beta_0 alpha_s^2) to be -0.24 +- 0.11 GeV^2. Using these first moments and the B semileptonic width, and assuming parton-hadron duality, we obtain |V_cb| = 0.0404 +- 0.0013.Comment: 11 pages postscript, also available through http://w4.lns.cornell.edu/public/CLNS, submitted to PR

Observation of Exclusive barB --> D(*) K*- Decays

We report the first observation of the exclusive decays \bar B\to D^{(*)}K^{*-}, using 9.66 x 10^{6} B\bar{B} pairs collected at the \Upsilon(4S) with the CLEO detector. We measure the following branching fractions: {\cal B}(B^- -> D^0 K^{*-})=(6.1 +- 1.6 +-1.7)x10^{-4}, {\cal B}(\bar{B^0} -> D^+K^{*-})=(3.7 +- 1.5 +- 1.0) x 10^{-4}, {\cal B}(\bar{B^0} -> D^{*+}K^{*-})=(3.8 +- 1.3 +- 0.8) x 10^{-4} and {\cal B}(B^- --> D^{*0} K^{*-})=(7.7 +- 2.2 +- 2.6) x 10^{-4}. The \bar B ->D^*K^{*-} branching ratios are the averages of those corresponding to the 00 and 11 helicity states. The errors shown are statistical and systematic, respectively.Comment: 9 pages postscript, also available through http://w4.lns.cornell.edu/public/CLNS, Published in Phys.Rev.Lett.88:101803,200

Observation of the Ωc0\Omega_{c}^{0} Charmed Baryon at CLEO

The CLEO experiment at the CESR collider has used 13.7 fb$^{-1}$ of data to search for the production of the $\Omega_c^0$ (css-ground state) in $e^{+}e^{-}$ collisions at $\sqrt{s} \simeq 10.6$ {\rm GeV}. The modes used to study the $\Omega_c^0$ are $\Omega^- \pi^+$, $\Omega^- \pi^+ \pi^0$, $\Xi^- K^- pi^+ \pi^+$, $\Xi^0 K^- pi^+$, and $\Omega^- \pi^+ \pi^- \pi^+$. We observe a signal of 40.4$\pm$9.0(stat) events at a mass of 2694.6$\pm$2.6(stat)$\pm$1.9(syst) {\rm MeV/$c^2$}, for all modes combined.Comment: 10 pages postscript, also available through http://w4.lns.cornell.edu/public/CLN

Observation of B→ϕKB\to \phi K and B→ϕK∗B\to \phi K^{*}

We have studied two-body charmless hadronic decays of $B$ mesons into the final states phi K and phi K^*. Using 9.7 million $B\bar{B}$ pairs collected with the CLEO II detector, we observe the decays B- -> phi K- and B0 -> phi K*0 with the following branching fractions: BR(B- -> phi K-)=(5.5 +2.1-1.8 +- 0.6) x 10^{-6} and BR(B0 -> phi K*0)=(11.5 +4.5-3.7 +1.8-1.7) x 10^{-6}. We also see evidence for the decays B0 -> phi K0 and B- -> phi K*-. However, since the statistical significance is not overwhelming for these modes we determine upper limits of <12.3 x 10^{-6} and <22.5 x 10^{-6} (90% C.L.) respectively.Comment: 9 pages postscript, also available through http://w4.lns.cornell.edu/public/CLN

Evidence of New States Decaying into Ξc′π\Xi^{\prime}_{c}\pi

Using 13.7 $fb^{-1}$ of data recorded by the CLEO detector at CESR, we report evidence for two new charmed baryons: one decaying into $\Xi_c^{0 \prime}\pi^+$ with the subsequent decay $\Xi_c^{0 \prime} \to \Xi_c^0 \gamma$, and its isospin partner decaying into $\Xi_c^{+ \prime} \pi^-$ followed by $\Xi_c^{+\prime} \to \Xi_c^+\gamma$. We measure the following mass differences for the two states: $M(\Xi_c^0 \gamma \pi^+)-M(\Xi_c^0)$=318.2+-1.3+-2.9 MeV, and $M(\Xi_c^+ \gamma \pi^-)-M(\Xi_c^+)$=324.0+-1.3+-3.0 MeV. We interpret these new states as the $J^P = 1/2^- \Xi_{c1}$ particles, the charmed-strange analogs of the $\Lambda_{c1}^+(2593)$.Comment: 10 pages postscript, also available through http://w4.lns.cornell.edu/public/CLN