Forecasting Crop Basis Using Historical Averages Supplemented with Current Market Information

This research compares practical methods of forecasting basis, using current market information for wheat, soybeans, corn, and milo (grain sorghum) in Kansas. Though generally not statistically superior, an historical one-year average was optimal for corn, milo, and soybean harvest and post-harvest basis forecasts. A one-year average was also best for wheat post-harvest basis forecasts, whereas a five-year average was the best method for forecasting wheat harvest basis. Incorporating current market information, defined as basis deviation from historical average, improved the accuracy of post-harvest basis forecasts. A naive forecast incorporating current information was often the most accurate for post-harvest basis forecasts.basis forecast, crop basis, current information, naive forecast, Marketing,

INCORPORATING CURRENT INFORMATION INTO HISTORICAL-AVERAGE-BASED FORECASTS TO IMPROVE CROP PRICE BASIS FORECASTS

Being able to accurately predict basis is critical for making marketing and management decisions. Basis forecasts can be used along with futures prices to provide cash price projections. Additionally, basis forecasts are needed to evaluate hedging opportunities. Many studies have examined factors affecting basis but few have explicitly examined the ability to forecast basis. Studies have shown basis forecasts based on simple historical averages compare favorably with more complex forecasting models. However, these studies typically have considered only a 3-year historical average for forecasting basis. This research compares practical methods of forecasting basis for wheat, soybeans, corn, and milo (grain sorghum) in Kansas. Across most of the multiple-year forecast methods considered, absolute basis forecast errors were slightly higher for the harvest forecasts than the post-harvest forecasts. Using an historical 3-year average to forecast basis for wheat and soybeans was optimal as compared to other multiple-year forecasts. For corn and milo, a 2-year average was the optimal multiple-year forecast method. Incorporating current market information, such as current nearby basis deviation from an historical average, into a harvest basis forecast improves accuracy for only the 4 weeks ahead of harvest vantage point, but improves the accuracy of post-harvest basis forecasts (24 weeks after harvest) from nearly all vantage points considered.Marketing,

A Water Quality Survey of the Big Blue River, Nebraska

Physiochemical and bacteriological conditions along with the macroinvertebrate community structure were studied to evaluate water quality of the Big Blue River, in southeastern Nebraska. Samples were taken between November 7, 1978, and December 19, 1979, at six stations from the headwaters to lower reaches of the river. Some sample sites were below specific municipal and industrial effluents to evaluate better their impact on water quality. Parameters measured included pH, temperature, dissolved oxygen, suspended solids, conductivity, biochemical oxygen demand, nitrate, ammonia, and fecal coliforms. Dissolved oxygen and nitrate were significantly different (p\u3c0.05) between stations, with the headwaters station exhibiting the greatest difference in water quality. Fecal coliforms were substantially higher at stations below Crete. The macroinvertebrate fauna comprised 42 and 66 taxa collected with Ekman grabs and multiplate artificial substrates, respectively. Average diversity values, using the Shannon-Weaver index, indicated all stations would be categorized as moderately polluted. Taxa collected at the stations showed a great deal of homogeneity. An exception was the headwaters site where pollution-associated taxa were found in abundance. Seasonal changes were an apparent factor affecting diversity of the macro invertebrates. The results collected provide useful baseline information for future evaluation of water quality trends of the Big Blue River

A Water Quality Survey of the Big Blue River, Nebraska

Physiochemical and bacteriological conditions along with the macroinvertebrate community structure were studied to evaluate water quality of the Big Blue River, in southeastern Nebraska. Samples were taken between November 7, 1978, and December 19, 1979, at six stations from the headwaters to lower reaches of the river. Some sample sites were below specific municipal and industrial effluents to evaluate better their impact on water quality. Parameters measured included pH, temperature, dissolved oxygen, suspended solids, conductivity, biochemical oxygen demand, nitrate, ammonia, and fecal coliforms. Dissolved oxygen and nitrate were significantly different (p\u3c0.05) between stations, with the headwaters station exhibiting the greatest difference in water quality. Fecal coliforms were substantially higher at stations below Crete. The macroinvertebrate fauna comprised 42 and 66 taxa collected with Ekman grabs and multiplate artificial substrates, respectively. Average diversity values, using the Shannon-Weaver index, indicated all stations would be categorized as moderately polluted. Taxa collected at the stations showed a great deal of homogeneity. An exception was the headwaters site where pollution-associated taxa were found in abundance. Seasonal changes were an apparent factor affecting diversity of the macro invertebrates. The results collected provide useful baseline information for future evaluation of water quality trends of the Big Blue River

Illumina mate-paired DNA sequencing-library preparation using Cre-Lox recombination

Standard Illumina mate-paired libraries are constructed from 3- to 5-kb DNA fragments by a blunt-end circularization. Sequencing reads that pass through the junction of the two joined ends of a 3-5-kb DNA fragment are not easy to identify and pose problems during mapping and de novo assembly. Longer read lengths increase the possibility that a read will cross the junction. To solve this problem, we developed a mate-paired protocol for use with Illumina sequencing technology that uses Cre-Lox recombination instead of blunt end circularization. In this method, a LoxP sequence is incorporated at the junction site. This sequence allows screening reads for junctions without using a reference genome. Junction reads can be trimmed or split at the junction. Moreover, the location of the LoxP sequence in the reads distinguishes mate-paired reads from spurious paired-end reads. We tested this new method by preparing and sequencing a mate-paired library with an insert size of 3 kb from Saccharomyces cerevisiae. We present an analysis of the library quality statistics and a new bio-informatics tool called DeLoxer that can be used to analyze an IlluminaCre-Lox mate-paired data set. We also demonstrate how the resulting data significantly improves a de novo assembly of the S. cerevisiae genome

Dilemmas and solutions- experiences of a national Family Medicine applied knowledge licensing test during a pandemic

ABSTRACT: Background: The unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic brought significant challenges to all of medicine, including primary care training and examinations. The MRCGP AKT is high-stakes licensing 200-item MCQ for UK trainee family physicians and is part of an assessment tripos that, up to the onset of the pandemic, included a Clinical Skills Assessment using Simulated Patients and workplace based assessment. The AKT is blueprinted onto a curriculum content specification and computer delivered three times a year at test centres across the UK. It tests the knowledge base underpinning independent general practice within the context of the UK National Health Service. We report on the challenges and dilemmas faced during the pandemic, decisions taken, and lessons learned. Rapid exam changes needed to be made, and communicated effectively to candidates, whilst maintaining standards and fairness to candidates. Summary of Work: Challenges included lockdown travel restrictions, reduced capacity, social distancing and shielding candidates being unable to leave home. The April 2020 AKT was cancelled and prioritisation measures implemented to ensure candidates at the end of their training could enter the (stressed) workforce. We engaged with a wide range of stakeholders, carefully looked at remote testing, made contingency plans prioritised for those unable to sit exams and changed exam regulations to ensure fairness to candidates. In this emergency, we delivered a previously published exam which some candidates were unaware they had sat previously, and assessed how these candidates performed. We compared cohort performance before and during the pandemic. Summary of Results: We summarise why we did not remote test, how we obtained key worker status, and adapted contingency plans. Analysis of candidates who had previously sat the same exam showed they performed less well. Despite wide-ranging changes in training and workplace experience, there was no significant difference in cohort performance overall pre-and peri-pandemic. Discussion and Conclusions: COVID-19 constraints changed trainees clinical exposure, restricted training and supervisor support. However, exam preparedness did not appear adversely affected when measured by overall pass rates. Unexpectedly, candidates who sat an identical exam did not benefit from previous exposure. Take-home Messages: Involving stakeholders in key decisions and regular communications are essential. Test security and standards were not compromised

Show Quality Quarter Horse Auctions: Price Determinants and Buy-Back Practices

This study estimates the price determinants of show quality quarter horses sold at auction. Several characteristics including genetic and physical traits, quality of pedigree, and performance record of the horse, as well as the horse's offspring, were found to significantly impact selling price. Sale order positively affected price and appears to be driven by buyers rather than intentional ordering of the horses. A common practice at horse auctions is for the seller to reject the final bid offered and buy back the horse. Model-predicted prices for these buy-back horses indicate they are not undervalued by the final bids, based on their characteristics.auction, equine, hedonic pricing, quarter horses, Demand and Price Analysis,

Axial Multicentric Osteosarcoma in an English Cocker Spaniel

No abstract available

Can a Lattice String Have a Vanishing Cosmological Constant?

We prove that a class of one-loop partition functions found by Dienes, giving rise to a vanishing cosmological constant to one-loop, cannot be realized by a consistent lattice string. The construction of non-supersymmetric string with a vanishing cosmological constant therefore remains as elusive as ever. We also discuss a new test that any one-loop partition function for a lattice string must satisfy.Comment: 14 page