Impact of climate change on groundwater point discharge: backflooding of karstic springs (Loiret, France)

Under certain hydrological conditions it is possible for spring flow in karst systems to be reversed. When this occurs, the resulting invasion by surface water, i.e. the backflooding, represents a serious threat to groundwater quality because the surface water could well be contaminated. Here we examine the possible impact of future climate change on the occurrences of backflooding in a specific karst system, having first established the occurrence of such events in the selected study area over the past 40 years. It would appear that backflooding has been more frequent since the 1980s, and that it is apparently linked to river flow variability on the pluri-annual scale. The avenue that we adopt here for studying recent and future variations of these events is based on a downscaling algorithm relating large-scale atmospheric circulation to local precipitation spatial patterns. The large-scale atmospheric circulation is viewed as a set of quasi-stationary and recurrent states, called weather types, and its variability as the transition between them. Based on a set of climate model projections, simulated changes in weather-type occurrence for the end of the century suggests that backflooding events can be expected to decrease in 2075–2099. If such is the case, then the potential risk for groundwater quality in the area will be greatly reduced compared to the current situation. Finally, our results also show the potential interest of the weather-type based downscaling approach for examining the impact of climate change on hydrological systems

The use of paleoclimate simulations to refine the environmental and chronological context of archaeological/paleontological sites

This study illustrates the strong potential of combining paleoenvironmental reconstructions and paleoclimate modeling to refine the paleoenvironmental and chronological context of archaeologicaland paleontological sites. We focus on the El Harhoura 2 cave (EH2), an archeological site located on the North-Atlantic coast of Morocco that covers a period from the Late Pleistocene to the mid-Holocene. On several stratigraphic layers, inconsistencies are observed between species- and isotope-based inferences used to reconstruct paleoenvironmental conditions. The stratigraphy of EH2 also shows chronological inconsistencies on older layers between age estimated by Optical Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) and Combination of Uranium Series and Electron Spin Resonance methods (combined US-ESR). We performed paleoclimate simulations to infer the global paleoclimate variations over the EH2 sequence in the area, and we conducted a consistency approach between paleoclimatereconstruction estimated from simulations and available from EH2 paleoenvironmental inferences. Our main conclusion show that the climate sequence based on combined US-ESR ages is more consistent with paleoenvironmental inferences than the climate sequence based on OSL ages. We also evidence that isotope-based inferences are more congruent with the paleoclimate sequence than species-based inferences. These results highlight the difference in scale between the information provided by each ofthese paleoenvironmental proxies. Our approach is transferable to other sites due to the increase number of available paleoclimate simulations.1 Introduction 2 Material and methods 2.1 El Harhoura 2 cave 2.1.1 Presentation of the site 2.1.2 Chronostratigraphy and dating hypotheses 2.1.3 Paleoenvironmental variables 2.2 Paleoclimate reconstruction 2.2.1 Climate model 2.2.2 Paleoclimate simulations 2.2.3 Sea-surface boundary conditions 2.2.4 A subset of key paleoclimate variables 2.3 Consistency analyses 3 Results 3.1. Simulated climate changes 3.2 Consistency between paleoclimate simulations and paleoenvironmental inferences 3.2.1 Association of paleoclimate simulations and stratigraphic layers 3.2.2 Consistency analyses 4 Discussion 4.1 Paleoclimate variation and underlying forcings 4.2 Paleoclimate simulations and chronostratigraphy 4.3 Paleoclimate simulations and paleoenvironmental inferences 5 Conclusion

The use of paleoclimatic simulations to refine the environmental and chronological context of archaeological/paleontological sites

To reconstruct the paleoenvironmental and chronological context of archaeological/paleontological sites is a key step to understand the evolutionary history of past organisms. Commonly used method to infer paleoenvironments rely on varied proxies such as faunal assemblages and isotopes. However, those proxies often show some inconsistencies. Regarding estimated ages of stratigraphic layers, they can vary depending on the dating method used. In this paper, we tested the potential of paleoclimate simulations to address this issue and contribute to the description of the environmental and chronological context of archaeological/paleontological sites. We produced a set of paleoclimate simulations corresponding to the stratigraphy of a Late-Pleistocene Holocene site, El Harhoura 2 (Morocco), and compared the climatic sequence described by these simulations to environmental inferences made from isotopes and faunal assemblages. Our results showed that in the studied site combined US-ESR ages were much more congruent with paleoenvironmental inferences than OSL ages. In addition, climatic variations were found to be more consistent with isotopic studies than faunal assemblages, allowing us to discuss unresolved discrepancies to date. This study illustrates the strong potential of our approach to refine the paleoenvironmental and chronological context of archaeological and paleontological sites.1 Introduction 2 Material and methods 2.1 El Harhoura 2 cave 2.2 Paleoclimate simulations 2.2.1 Pre-existing ensemble of simulations 2.2.2 Model 2.2.3 Sea-surface boundary conditions 2.3 Climate variations through EH2 sequence 3 Results 3.1 Paleoclimate simulations 3.2 Climate variations through EH2 sequence 4 Discussion 5 Conclusio

Exploration of diverse solutions for the calibration of imperfect climate models

The calibration of Earth system model parameters is subject to data, time, and computational constraints. The high dimensionality of this calibration problem, combined with errors arising from model structural assumptions, makes it impossible to find model versions fully consistent with historical observations. Therefore, the potential for multiple plausible configurations presenting different trade-offs between skills in various variables and spatial regions remains usually untested. In this study, we lay out a formalism for making different assumptions about how ensemble variability in a perturbed physics ensemble relates to model error, proposing an empirical but practical solution for finding diverse near-optimal solutions. A meta-model is used to predict the outputs of a climate model reduced through principal component analysis. Then, a subset of input parameter values yielding results similar to a reference simulation is identified. We argue that the effective degrees of freedom in the model performance response to parameter input (the “parametric component”) are, in fact, relatively small, illustrating why manual calibration is often able to find near-optimal solutions. The results explore the potential for comparably performing parameter configurations that have different trade-offs in model errors. These model candidates can inform model development and could potentially lead to significantly different future climate evolution.</p

Solar radiation modification challenges decarbonization with renewable solar energy

Solar radiation modification (SRM) is increasingly being discussed as a potential tool to reduce global and regional temperatures to buy time for conventional carbon mitigation measures to take effect. However, most simulations to date assume SRM to be an additive component to the climate change toolbox, without any physical coupling between mitigation and SRM. In this study we analyze one aspect of this coupling: how renewable energy (RE) capacity, and therefore decarbonization rates, may be affected under SRM deployment by modification of photovoltaic (PV) and concentrated solar power (CSP) production potential. Simulated 1 h output from the Earth system model CNRM-ESM2-1 for scenario-based experiments is used for the assessment. The SRM scenario uses stratospheric aerosol injections (SAIs) to approximately lower global mean temperature from the high-emission scenario SSP585 baseline to the moderate-emission scenario SSP245. We find that by the end of the century, most regions experience an increased number of low PV and CSP energy weeks per year under SAI compared to SSP245. Compared to SSP585, while the increase in low energy weeks under SAI is still dominant on a global scale, certain areas may benefit from SAI and see fewer low PV or CSP energy weeks. A substantial part of the decrease in potential with SAI compared to the SSP scenarios is compensated for by optically thinner upper-tropospheric clouds under SAI, which allow more radiation to penetrate towards the surface. The largest relative reductions in PV potential are seen in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere midlatitudes. Our study suggests that using SAI to reduce high-end global warming to moderate global warming could pose increased challenges for meeting energy demand with solar renewable resources.</p

Impact of increased resolution on long-standing biases in HighResMIP-PRIMAVERA climate models

We examine the influence of increased resolution on four long-standing biases using five different climate models developed within the PRIMAVERA project. The biases are the warm eastern tropical oceans, the double Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), the warm Southern Ocean, and the cold North Atlantic. Atmosphere resolution increases from ∼100–200 to ∼25–50 km, and ocean resolution increases from (eddy-parametrized) to (eddy-present). For one model, ocean resolution also reaches ∘ (eddy-rich). The ensemble mean and individual fully coupled general circulation models and their atmosphere-only versions are compared with satellite observations and the ERA5 reanalysis over the period 1980–2014. The four studied biases appear in all the low-resolution coupled models to some extent, although the Southern Ocean warm bias is the least persistent across individual models. In the ensemble mean, increased resolution reduces the surface warm bias and the associated cloud cover and precipitation biases over the eastern tropical oceans, particularly over the tropical South Atlantic. Linked to this and to the improvement in the precipitation distribution over the western tropical Pacific, the double-ITCZ bias is also reduced with increased resolution. The Southern Ocean warm bias increases or remains unchanged at higher resolution, with small reductions in the regional cloud cover and net cloud radiative effect biases. The North Atlantic cold bias is also reduced at higher resolution, albeit at the expense of a new warm bias that emerges in the Labrador Sea related to excessive ocean deep mixing in the region, especially in the ORCA025 ocean model. Overall, the impact of increased resolution on the surface temperature biases is model-dependent in the coupled models. In the atmosphere-only models, increased resolution leads to very modest or no reduction in the studied biases. Thus, both the coupled and atmosphere-only models still show large biases in tropical precipitation and cloud cover, and in midlatitude zonal winds at higher resolutions, with little change in their global biases for temperature, precipitation, cloud cover, and net cloud radiative effect. Our analysis finds no clear reductions in the studied biases due to the increase in atmosphere resolution up to 25–50 km, in ocean resolution up to 0.25∘, or in both. Our study thus adds to evidence that further improved model physics, tuning, and even finer resolutions might be necessary

Two-Loop Polarization Contributions to Radiative-Recoil Corrections to Hyperfine Splitting in Muonium

We calculate radiative-recoil corrections of order $\alpha^2(Z\alpha)(m/M)E_F$ to hyperfine splitting in muonium generated by the diagrams with electron and muon polarization loops. These corrections are enhanced by the large logarithm of the electron-muon mass ratio. The leading logarithm cubed and logarithm squared contributions were obtained a long time ago. The single-logarithmic and nonlogarithmic contributions calculated here improve the theory of hyperfine splitting, and affect the value of the electron-muon mass ratio extracted from the experimental data on the muonium hyperfine splitting.Comment: 15 pages, 11 figure

Northern Hemisphere blocking simulation in current climate models: evaluating progress from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 to 6 and sensitivity to resolution

Global climate models (GCMs) are known to suffer from biases in the simulation of atmospheric blocking, and this study provides an assessment of how blocking is represented by the latest generation of GCMs. It is evaluated (i) how historical CMIP6 (Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) simulations perform compared to CMIP5 simulations and (ii) how horizontal model resolution affects the simulation of blocking in the CMIP6-HighResMIP (PRIMAVERA – PRocess-based climate sIMulation: AdVances in high-resolution modelling and European climate Risk Assessment) model ensemble, which is designed to address this type of question. Two blocking indices are used to evaluate the simulated mean blocking frequency and blocking persistence for the Euro-Atlantic and Pacific regions in winter and summer against the corresponding estimates from atmospheric reanalysis data. There is robust evidence that CMIP6 models simulate blocking frequency and persistence better than CMIP5 models in the Atlantic and Pacific and during winter and summer. This improvement is sizeable so that, for example, winter blocking frequency in the median CMIP5 model in a large Euro-Atlantic domain is underestimated by 33 % using the absolute geopotential height (AGP) blocking index, whereas the same number is 18 % for the median CMIP6 model. As for the sensitivity of simulated blocking to resolution, it is found that the resolution increase, from typically 100 to 20 km grid spacing, in most of the PRIMAVERA models, which are not re-tuned at the higher resolutions, benefits the mean blocking frequency in the Atlantic in winter and summer and in the Pacific in summer. Simulated blocking persistence, however, is not seen to improve with resolution. Our results are consistent with previous studies suggesting that resolution is one of a number of interacting factors necessary for an adequate simulation of blocking in GCMs. The improvements reported in this study hold promise for further reductions in blocking biases as model development continues

ENSO impact on northwest African upwelling

One of the most robust ENSO teleconnections is that linking SST anomalies in the equatorial Pacific and Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) in boreal spring. While the role played by the wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback in maintaining the ENSO-related SST anomalies over the TNA is well understood, many questions remain open about the signature of this ENSO teleconnection on the northwest African upwelling system and its role for the further response during the spring season along the whole TNA. This issue is analyzed here in both observations and CGCM models with different nominal resolution (CMIP6 HighResMIP simulations). In particular, the relevance of the mean state variability in the tropical Atlantic for modulating the northwest African upwelling response to ENSO has been assessed in depth. Furthermore, and considering the exceptional ecological importance of this upwelling area, the ENSO-related influence on the spatio-temporal variability of round sardinella (the dominant fish species in terms of abundance) has been also analyzed. To this aim, an end-to-end strategy which combines models of physics (hydrodynamic), lower trophic levels (nutrient-plankton) and upper trophic levels (sardinella), is used. All these analyses highlight from both climate and ecological perspectives, the relevance of better understanding the ENSO-northwest African upwelling teleconnection.Universidad de Málaga. Campus de Excelencia Internacional Andalucía Tech