Estimating national poverty rates and their effect on mortality: 129 countries, 1990–2013

AbstractBackgroundA country's wealth is an established predictor of population health outcomes. The distribution of wealth within a country is also associated with health outcomes, yet the relation between poverty and health outcomes has not been as widely assessed in cross-country studies because of insufficient data. In this study, we construct 22 complete, yet distinct, poverty data series and test how poverty can explain variation in health.MethodsThe World Bank's International Comparison Program estimates the number of people living at or below US$1·25 per day using more than 800 household surveys. However, this data series is far from complete. We build from the World Bank dataset and use covariates and intertemporal trends to generate a complete data series for 129 countries for 1990–2013. We used a variable selection process based on linear regression and Bayesian model selection to derive a tractable set of predictors. To predict national poverty rates at 51 different income thresholds, we used 20 variants of three models and relied on out-of-sample validation to choose the best model. Finally, we use fixed-effects linear regression techniques to test how national poverty rates are associated with changes in adult and child mortality.FindingsA three-stage model based on multiple imputation, hierarchical random-effects estimation, and Gaussian process regression out performs all other methods used to estimate national poverty rates. We noted that the number of people living on$1·25 per day is being reduced in most parts of the world, although in some regions of Africa the extreme poverty count is increasing. When poverty is defined as living on $5·00 per day, we see that the number of people living in poverty is increasing in 88 countries (68·2$1·25 per day, is not sufficient to produce great improvements in population health. When poverty is redefined at a larger income threshold, reductions in national poverty rates predict more substantial population health gains.InterpretationSince 1990, there has been a great deal of progress made in reducing the number of people living at or below $1·25 per day. We provide evidence that increasing an individual's income above$1·25 is not associated with dramatically improved health. Instead, an income closer to $5·00 per day seems to be more closely associated with improved population health. This research highlights that, while reducing the number of people living at or below$1·25 per day is important for better health outcomes, more income is required for substantial improvements in population health.FundingThe Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation

Optimal language policy for the preservation of a minority language

We develop a dynamic language competition model with dynamic state intervention. Parents choose the language(s) to raise their children based on the communicational value of each language as well as on their emotional attachment to the languages at hand. Languages are thus conceptualized as tools for communication as well as carriers of cultural identity. The model includes a high and a low status language, and children can be brought up as monolinguals or bilinguals. Through investment into language policies, the status of the minority language can be increased. The aim of the intervention is to preserve the minority language in a bilingual subpopulation at low costs. We investigate the dynamic structure of the optimally controlled system as well as the optimal policy, identify stable equilibria and provide numerical case studies

Measuring diversity in multilingual communication

This article develops new indices to measure linguistic diversity. It is new in two respects: firstly, existing indices to measure the probability that in a given multilingual context communication among people speaking different languages can successfully occur are based on the assumption that communication is possible only if at least one single language is shared. This study develops new indices that describe the probability that people with different linguistic repertoires can effectively communicate not only through one common language, but also by relying on their receptive competence in multiple languages, or a mix between the two communication strategies. Secondly, it develops indices to measure the degree of diversity of language policies aimed at providing multilingual communication (through translation and interpretation). The focus, therefore, is on the organisation as collective actors rather than individuals. The indices may be relevant to the study of the political and economic implications of linguistic diversity in multilingual countries, and in the management of diversity in multilingual organisations

Palmitate induces mRNA translation and increases ER protein load in islet β-cells via activation of the mammalian target of rapamycin pathway

Saturated free fatty acids (FFAs) have complex effects on the islet β-cell, acutely promoting adaptive hyperplasia but chronically impairing insulin release. The acute effects of FFAs remain incompletely defined. To elucidate these early molecular events, we incubated mouse β-cells and islets with palmitate and then studied mRNA translation by polyribosomal profiling and analyzed signaling pathways by immunoblot analysis. We found that palmitate acutely increases polyribosome occupancy of total RNA, consistent with an increase in mRNA translation. This effect on translation was attributable to activation of mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR) pathways via L-type Ca(2+) channels but was independent of insulin signaling. Longer incubations led to depletion of polyribosome-associated RNA, consistent with activation of the unfolded protein response (UPR). Pharmacologic inhibition of mTOR suppressed both the acute effects of palmitate on mRNA translation and the chronic effects on the UPR. Islets from mice fed a high-fat diet for 7 days showed increases in polyribosome-associated RNA and phosphorylation of S6K, both consistent with activation of mTOR. Our results suggest that palmitate acutely activates mRNA translation and that this increase in protein load contributes to the later UPR

Propagation of a Solitary Fission Wave

Reaction-diffusion phenomena are encountered in an astonishing array of natural systems. Under the right conditions, self stabilizing reaction waves can arise that will propagate at constant velocity. Numerical studies have shown that fission waves of this type are also possible and that they exhibit soliton like properties. Here, we derive the conditions required for a solitary fission wave to propagate at constant velocity. The results place strict conditions on the shapes of the flux, diffusive, and reactive profiles that would be required for such a phenomenon to persist, and this condition would apply to other reaction diffusion phenomena as well. Numerical simulations are used to confirm the results and show that solitary fission waves fall into a bistable class of reaction diffusion phenomena. (C) 2012 American Institute of Physics. [http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4729927]United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission NRC-38-08-946Mechanical Engineerin

School Readiness Profiles and Growth in Academic Achievement

The purpose of this research was to identify the presence of different school readiness profiles and to determine whether profiles could differentially predict academic growth. The Early Childhood Longitudinal Study: 2010-11 (ECLS-K: 2011) public data set was used, and participants were 14,954 first-time kindergarteners. The age of entering kindergarten ranged from 44.81 to 87.98 months with a mean of 76.13 months. In Study 1, a six-dimensional construct of school readiness was used: health, self-regulation, social and emotional development, language development, cognitive development, and approaches to learning. Results revealed 41 profiles with the top six school readiness profiles covering 85% of the sample: (1) Positive Development (28%); (2) Comprehensive At-Risk (24%); (3) Personal and Social Strengths (20%); (4) Cognitive and Language Strengths (5%), (5) Health Strength (5%); and (6) Cognitive, Personal and Social Strengths (3%). Study 2 examined whether school readiness profiles could predict children\u27s reading and math achievement growth using growth curve models. Results showed that different school readiness profile membership had unique academic growth patterns and could predict academic growth above and beyond child and family background variables. Moreover, children with the Positive Development profile had higher academic achievement over time. Children with the Personal and Social Strengths profile had the largest growth rates. In sum, findings support the inclusion of self-regulation as another dimension of school readiness and the important role of personal and social skills in the development of reading and math achievement

Moving beyond physical education subject knowledge to develop knowledgeable teachers of the subject

All knowledge is socially constructed, including physical education teachers’ knowledge of their subject. It is acquired from other people either formally and deliberately (e.g. by being taught) or informally and casually (e.g. by interacting with physical education teachers or playing in a sports team). The social aspects of learning appear to be particularly strong in physical education. This has implications for the development of knowledge for teaching, with trainee teachers focusing on the development of subject, and particularly content, knowledge. Focusing on subject knowledge reinforces a traditional view of physical education as it is, not as it might be to meet the needs of young people today. It is argued that attention needs to be given not only to the knowledge, skills and competencies that trainee teachers ought to develop but also to the social aspects of their learning and development and the context in which they learn. Attention also needs to be given to how the ability to think critically can be developed so that trainee teachers can become reflective practitioners able to challenge and, where appropriate, change the teaching of the subject. Only by doing this can the particularly strong socialisation which shapes the values and beliefs of physical education teachers begin to be challenged. However, as the process of developing knowledgeable teachers is ongoing it is also necessary to look beyond teacher training to continuing professional development

Moving beyond physical education subject knowledge to develop knowledgeable teachers of the subject

All knowledge is socially constructed, including physical education teachers’ knowledge of their subject. It is acquired from other people either formally and deliberately (e.g. by being taught) or informally and casually (e.g. by interacting with physical education teachers or playing in a sports team). The social aspects of learning appear to be particularly strong in physical education. This has implications for the development of knowledge for teaching, with trainee teachers focusing on the development of subject, and particularly content, knowledge. Focusing on subject knowledge reinforces a traditional view of physical education as it is, not as it might be to meet the needs of young people today. It is argued that attention needs to be given not only to the knowledge, skills and competencies that trainee teachers ought to develop but also to the social aspects of their learning and development and the context in which they learn. Attention also needs to be given to how the ability to think critically can be developed so that trainee teachers can become reflective practitioners able to challenge and, where appropriate, change the teaching of the subject. Only by doing this can the particularly strong socialisation which shapes the values and beliefs of physical education teachers begin to be challenged. However, as the process of developing knowledgeable teachers is ongoing it is also necessary to look beyond teacher training to continuing professional development