Accuracy of physicians in diagnosing HIV and AIDS-related death in the adult population of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Background: The lack of cause of death information is the main challenge in monitoring the effectiveness of interventions aimed at reducing HIV and AIDS-related deaths in countries where the majority of deaths occur at home. Objective: To evaluate the accuracy of physician reviewers of verbal autopsies in diagnosing HIV and AIDS-related deaths in the adult population of Addis Ababa, the capital of Ethiopia. Methods: This study was done within the context of a burial surveillance system in Addis Ababa. Trained interviewers completed a standard verbal autopsy questionnaire and an independent panel of physicians reviewed the completed form to assign cause of death. Physicians’ review was compared to a reference standard constructed based on prospectively collected HIV-serostatus and patients’ hospital record. Sensitivity and specificity were calculated to validate the physicians’ verbal autopsy diagnoses against reference standards. Results: Physicians accurately identified AIDS-related deaths with sensitivity and specificity of 0.88 (95% CI: 0.80 - 0.93) and 0.77 (95% CI: 0.64 - 0.87), respectively. Generally, there was high level of agreement (Cohen’s Kappa Statistic (K > 0.6) between the first two physicians with some yearly variations. In 2008 and 2009 there was an almost perfect agreement (K > 0.80). Conclusion: This study demonstrated the agreement level between two independent physicians in diagnosing AIDS-related death is very high and thus using a single verbal autopsy coder is practical for programmatic purposes in countries where there is critical shortage of doctors

Epidemiology of Major Non-communicable Diseases in Ethiopia: A Systematic Review

Impact of non-communicable diseases is not well-documented in Ethiopia. We aimed to document the prevalence and mortality associated with four major non-communicable diseases in Ethiopia: cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Associated risk factors: hypertension, tobacco-use, harmful use of alcohol, overweight/obesity, and khat-chewing were also studied. Systematic review of peer-reviewed and grey literature between 1960 and 2011 was done using PubMed search engines and local libraries to identify prevalence studies on the four diseases. In total, 32 studies were found, and half of these studies were from Addis Ababa. Two hospital-based studies reviewed the prevalence of cardiovascular disease and found a prevalence of 7.2% and 24%; a hospital-based study reviewed cancer prevalence and found a prevalence of 0.3%; two hospital-based studies reviewed diabetes prevalence and found a prevalence of 0.5% and 1.2%; and two hospital-based studies reviewed prevalence of asthma and found a prevalence of 1% and 3.5%. Few community-based studies were done on the prevalence of diabetes and chronic pulmonary obstructive disease among the population. Several studies reviewed the impact of these diseases on mortality: cardiovascular disease accounts for 24% of deaths in Addis Ababa, cancer causes 10% of deaths in the urban settings and 2% deaths in rural setting, and diabetes causes 5% and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease causes 3% of deaths. Several studies reviewed the impact of these diseases on hospital admissions: cardiovascular disease accounts for 3%-12.6% and found to have increased between 1970s and 2000s; cancer accounts for 1.1%-2.8%, diabetes accounts for 0.5%-1.2%, and chronic obstructive diseases account for 2.7%-4.3% of morbidity. Overall, the major non-communicable diseases and related risk factors are highly prevalent, and evidence-based interventions should be designed

Implications of the HIV testing protocol for refusal bias in seroprevalence surveys

BACKGROUND: HIV serosurveys have become important sources of HIV prevalence estimates, but these estimates may be biased because of refusals and other forms of non-response. We investigate the effect of the post-test counseling study protocol on bias due to the refusal to be tested. METHODS: Data come from a nine-month prospective study of hospital admissions in Addis Ababa during which patients were approached for an HIV test. Patients had the choice between three consent levels: testing and post-test counseling (including the return of HIV test results), testing without post-test counseling, and total refusal. For all patients, information was collected on basic sociodemographic background characteristics as well as admission diagnosis. The three consent levels are used to mimic refusal bias in serosurveys with different post-test counseling study protocols. We first investigate the covariates of consent for testing. Second, we quantify refusal bias in HIV prevalence estimates using Heckman regression models that account for sample selection. RESULTS: Refusal to be tested positively correlates with admission diagnosis (and thus HIV status), but the magnitude of refusal bias in HIV prevalence surveys depends on the study protocol. Bias is larger when post-test counseling and the return of HIV test results is a prerequisite of study participation (compared to a protocol where test results are not returned to study participants, or, where there is an explicit provision for respondents to forego post-test counseling). We also find that consent for testing increased following the introduction of antiretroviral therapy in Ethiopia. Other covariates of refusal are age (non-linear effect), gender (higher refusal rates in men), marital status (lowest refusal rates in singles), educational status (refusal rate increases with educational attainment), and counselor. CONCLUSION: The protocol for post-test counseling and the return of HIV test results to study participants is an important consideration in HIV prevalence surveys that wish to minimize refusal bias. The availability of ART is likely to reduce refusal rates

Life table estimates of adult HIV/AIDS mortality in Addis Ababa

Background: With the expansion of antiretroviral treatment in the country, HIV prevalence figures alone, are expected to become insufficient for monitoring the HIV/AIDS epidemic.Objective: To develop life table method for estimating AIDS mortality based on surveillance of deaths at burial sites in Addis Ababa.Methods: An empirical life table for 2001 based on observed deaths and the projected population is matched with model life table on an age range where AIDS mortality is minimal. Excess mortality in adulthood is attributed to AIDS.Results: Between 54.7 and 62.4% of adult deaths in Addis Ababa (age 2064) are attributed to AIDS. The absolute numbers of AIDS deaths for the year 2001 is estimated between 7,000 and 9,000. Estimates of the absolute number of deaths are sensitive to underreporting of burials and therefore on the conservative side. In terms of the share of AIDS attributable mortality, women are worse affected than men. The absolute number of AIDS deaths is higher for men than for women.Conclusion: Life table methods corroborate earlier estimates of AIDS mortality based on other methodologies. Burial surveillance data used as an input to life table methods may be used for monitoring the demographic impact of AIDS as well as the population level effects of the provision of antiretroviral treatment. The Ethiopian Journal of Health Development Vol. 20(1) 2006: 3-

Monitoring cause-specific adult mortality in developing countries: a comparison of data sources for Addis Ababa and its implications for policy and research.

Hospital statistics of causes of death for developing countries may be biased when the utilization of hospital services is low or selective. Using Addis Ababa, Ethiopia as an example, we argue that hospital data can be useful for demonstrating general cause-specific mortality patterns. In addition, a comparison of hospital statistics with data from a surveillance of burials allows for the identification of weaknesses in health services provision. We find a low level of hospital services utilization during terminal illness. Despite similarities in the cause of death structure in the different data sources, hospital statistics under-estimate the prevalence of infectious diseases. In addition, we identify an important gender bias in the utilization of health services in the direction of males being significantly more likely to die in medical facilities than females

Monitoring cause-specific adult mortality in developing countries: A comparison of data sources for Addis Ababa and its implications for policy and research

Hospital statistics of causes of death for developing countries may be biased when the utilization of hospital services is low or selective. Using Addis Ababa, Ethiopia as an example, we argue that hospital data can be useful for demonstrating general cause-specific mortality patterns. In addition, a comparison of hospital statistics with data from a surveillance of burials allows for the identification of weaknesses in health services provision. We find a low level of hospital services utilization during terminal illness. Despite similarities in the cause of death structure in the different data sources, hospital statistics under-estimate the prevalence of infectious diseases. In addition, we identify an important gender bias in the utilization of health services in the direction of males being significantly more likely to die in medical facilities than females.Mortality Cause of death Gender Methodology Hospital statistics Sub-Saharan Africa Ethiopia Vital registration

Steep declines in population-level AIDS mortality following the introduction of antiretroviral therapy in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

OBJECTIVES: Assessments of population-level effects of antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes in Africa are rare. We use data from burial sites to estimate trends in adult AIDS mortality and the mitigating effects of ART in Addis Ababa. ART has been available since 2003, and for free since 2005. METHODS: To substitute for deficient vital registration, we use surveillance of burials at all cemeteries. We present trends in all-cause mortality, and estimate AIDS mortality (ages 20-64 years) from lay reports of causes of death. These lay reports are first used as a diagnostic test for the true cause of death. As reference standard, we use the cause of death established via verbal autopsy interviews conducted in 2004. The positive predictive value and sensitivity are subsequently used as anchors to estimate the number of AIDS deaths for the period 2001-2007. Estimates are compared with Spectrum projections. RESULTS: Between 2001 and 2005, the number of AIDS deaths declined by 21.9 and 9.3% for men and women, respectively. Between 2005 and 2007, the number of AIDS deaths declined by 38.2 for men and 42.9% for women. Compared with the expected number in the absence of ART, the reduction in AIDS deaths in 2007 is estimated to be between 56.8 and 63.3%, depending on the coverage of the burial surveillance. CONCLUSION: Five years into the ART programme, adult AIDS mortality has been reduced by more than half. Following the free provision of ART in 2005, the decline accelerated and became more sex balanced. Substantial AIDS mortality, however, persists

Lay diagnosis of causes of death for monitoring AIDS mortality in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Lay diagnoses of death collected at burial sites were validated against two 'gold standards': the hospital discharge diagnosis of causes of death obtained by a surveillance of hospital deaths (including autopsy results) and the physician review of verbal autopsies (VAs) that were carried out for a sample of cemetery records. The diagnostic indicators of the lay diagnoses were then used to provide estimates of the share of AIDS-attribuTable mortality. The verbal autopsy results provide an independent estimate of the percentage of AIDS deaths. From a total of 21,274 burial records, 2546 hospital discharge diagnoses, 1480 outcomes of autopsies and 200 adult verbal autopsies were gathered over a period of 1 year starting from February 2001. Independent of the gold standard, lay diagnoses such as lung disease and cold have a specificity of about 90% and a combined sensitivity of about 55% in determining AIDS mortality. Without a significant loss in specificity, the sensitivity increases to 60-65% when diarrhoea, TB, herpes zoster and mental or nerve problem are included. We thus conclude that even in the presence of a reluctance to talk of HIV/AIDS, lay diagnosis of causes of death can be used for monitoring AIDS mortality. Lung disease and cold, in particular, have become well-known euphemisms for AIDS in the community. The share of AIDS deaths in the adult population (20-54) is estimated at 68%, without noticeable differences between men and women. Our results confirm the high impact of HIV/AIDS on mortality as was estimated by epidemiological projections for Addis Ababa