Global Warming: Forecasts by Scientists versus Scientific Forecasts

In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Working Group One, a panel of experts established by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme, issued its Fourth Assessment Report. The Report included predictions of dramatic increases in average world temperatures over the next 92 years and serious harm resulting from the predicted temperature increases. Using forecasting principles as our guide we asked: Are these forecasts a good basis for developing public policy? Our answer is “no”. To provide forecasts of climate change that are useful for policy-making, one would need to forecast (1) global temperature, (2) the effects of any temperature changes, and (3) the effects of feasible alternative policies. Proper forecasts of all three are necessary for rational policy making. The IPCC WG1 Report was regarded as providing the most credible long-term forecasts of global average temperatures by 31 of the 51 scientists and others involved in forecasting climate change who responded to our survey. We found no references in the 1056-page Report to the primary sources of information on forecasting methods despite the fact these are conveniently available in books, articles, and websites. We audited the forecasting processes described in Chapter 8 of the IPCC’s WG1 Report to assess the extent to which they complied with forecasting principles. We found enough information to make judgments on 89 out of a total of 140 forecasting principles. The forecasting procedures that were described violated 72 principles. Many of the violations were, by themselves, critical. The forecasts in the Report were not the outcome of scientific procedures. In effect, they were the opinions of scientists transformed by mathematics and obscured by complex writing. Research on forecasting has shown that experts’ predictions are not useful in situations involving uncertainly and complexity. We have been unable to identify any scientific forecasts of global warming. Claims that the Earth will get warmer have no more credence than saying that it will get colder

Measurement of the Charged Multiplicities in b, c and Light Quark Events from Z0 Decays

Average charged multiplicities have been measured separately in $b$, $c$ and light quark ($u,d,s$) events from $Z^0$ decays measured in the SLD experiment. Impact parameters of charged tracks were used to select enriched samples of $b$ and light quark events, and reconstructed charmed mesons were used to select $c$ quark events. We measured the charged multiplicities: $\bar{n}_{uds} = 20.21 \pm 0.10 (\rm{stat.})\pm 0.22(\rm{syst.})$, $\bar{n}_{c} = 21.28 \pm 0.46(\rm{stat.}) ^{+0.41}_{-0.36}(\rm{syst.})$ $\bar{n}_{b} = 23.14 \pm 0.10(\rm{stat.}) ^{+0.38}_{-0.37}(\rm{syst.})$, from which we derived the differences between the total average charged multiplicities of $c$ or $b$ quark events and light quark events: $\Delta \bar{n}_c = 1.07 \pm 0.47(\rm{stat.})^{+0.36}_{-0.30}(\rm{syst.})$ and $\Delta \bar{n}_b = 2.93 \pm 0.14(\rm{stat.})^{+0.30}_{-0.29}(\rm{syst.})$. We compared these measurements with those at lower center-of-mass energies and with perturbative QCD predictions. These combined results are in agreement with the QCD expectations and disfavor the hypothesis of flavor-independent fragmentation.Comment: 19 pages LaTex, 4 EPS figures, to appear in Physics Letters

The VLT-FLAMES Tarantula Survey XXVIII. Nitrogen abundances for apparently single dwarf and giant B-type stars with small projected rotational velocities

Previous analyses of the spectra of OB-type stars in the Magellanic Clouds have identified targets with low projected rotational velocities and relatively high nitrogen abundances; the evolutionary status of these objects remains unclear. The VLT-FLAMES Tarantula Survey obtained spectroscopy for over 800 early-type stars in 30 Doradus of which 434 stars were classified as B-type. We have estimated atmospheric parameters and nitrogen abundances using tlusty model atmospheres for 54 B-type targets that appear to be single, have projected rotational velocities, ve sin i ≤ 80 km s−1 and were not classified as supergiants. In addition, nitrogen abundances for 34 similar stars observed in a previous FLAMES survey of the Large Magellanic Cloud have been re-evaluated. For both samples, approximately 75-80% of the targets have nitrogen enhancements of less than 0.3 dex, consistent with them having experienced only small amounts of mixing. However, stars with low projected rotational velocities, ve sin i ≤ 40 km s−1 and significant nitrogen enrichments are found in both our samples and simulations imply that these cannot all be rapidly rotating objects observed near pole-on. For example, adopting an enhancement threshold of 0.6 dex, we observed five and four stars in our VFTS and previous FLAMES survey samples, yet stellar evolution models with rotation predict only 1.25±1.11 and 0.26±0.51 based on our sample sizes and random stellar viewing inclinations. The excess of such objects is estimated to be 20-30% of all stars with current rotational velocities of less than 40 km s−1 . This would correspond to ∼2-4% of the total non-supergiant single B-type sample. Given the relatively large nitrogen enhancement adopted, these estimates constitute lower limits for stars that appear inconsistent with current grids of stellar evolutionary models. Including targets with smaller nitrogen enhancements of greater than 0.2 dex implies larger percentages of targets that are inconsistent with current evolutionary models, viz. ∼70% of the stars with rotational velocities less than 40 km s−1 and ∼6-8% of the total single stellar population. We consider possible explanations of which the most promising would appear to be breaking due to magnetic fields or stellar mergers with subsequent magnetic braking

Drug-gene interactions of antihypertensive medications and risk of incident cardiovascular disease: A pharmacogenomics study from the CHARGE consortium

Background Hypertension is a major risk factor for a spectrum of cardiovascular diseases (CVD), including myocardial infarction, sudden death, and stroke. In the US, over 65 million people have high blood pressure and a large proportion of these individuals are prescribed antihypertensive medications. Although large long-term clinical trials conducted in the last several decades have identified a number of effective antihypertensive treatments that reduce the risk of future clinical complications, responses to therapy and protection from cardiovascular events vary among individuals. Methods Using a genome-wide association study among 21,267 participants with pharmaceutically treated hypertension, we explored the hypothesis that genetic variants might influence or modify the effectiveness of common antihypertensive therapies on the risk ofmajor cardiovascular outcomes. The classes of drug treatments included angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, beta-blockers, calcium channel blockers, and diuretics. In the setting of the Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology (CHARGE) consortium, each study performed array-based genome-wide genotyping, imputed to HapMap Phase II reference panels, and used additive genetic models in proportional hazards or logistic regressionmodels to evaluate drug-gene interactions for each of four therapeutic drug classes. We used meta-analysis to combine study-specific interaction estimates for approximately 2 million single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in a discovery analysis among 15,375 European Ancestry participants (3,527 CVD cases) with targeted follow-up in a case-only study of 1,751 European Ancestry GenHAT participants as well as among 4,141 African-Americans (1,267 CVD cases). Results Although drug-SNP interactions were biologically plausible, exposures and outcomes were well measured, and power was sufficient to detect modest interactions, we did not identify any statistically significant interactions from the four antihypertensive therapy meta-analyses (Pinteraction > 5.0×10-8). Similarly, findings were null for meta-analyses restricted to 66 SNPs with significant main effects on coronary artery disease or blood pressure from large published genom

Mouse Chromosome 3

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/46995/1/335_2004_Article_BF00648421.pd

Discovery of Genetic Variation on Chromosome 5q22 Associated with Mortality in Heart Failure

Failure of the human heart to maintain sufficient output of blood for the demands of the body, heart failure, is a common condition with high mortality even with modern therapeutic alternatives. To identify molecular determinant