Merchant Electricity Transmission Expansion: A European Case Study

We apply a merchant transmission model to the trilateral market coupling (TLC) arrangement among the Netherlands, Belgium and France as a generic example, and note that it can be applied to any general market splitting or coupling of Europe's different national power markets. In this merchant framework; the system operator allocates financial transmission rights (FTRs) to investors in transmission expansion based upon their preferences, and revenue adequacy. The independent system operator (ISO) preserves some proxy FTRs to deal with potential negative externalities due to an expansion project. This scheme proves to be capable in providing incentives for investment in transmission expansion projects within TLC areas.transmission expansion, trilateral market coupling, Europe, financial transmission rights, congestion management

Forecasting Nord Pool day-ahead prices with Python

This paper presents a Nord Pool forecast model for hourly day-ahead prices, utilizing the Python software. The model is an autoregressive model based on [1] and the data spans the period from 2004 to 2011. The targets (i.e. dependent variables) are the hourly day-ahead prices for a certain hour during the day while the features (i.e. independent variables) are the prices for the same hour the previous two days and the previous week, the minimum price for the previous day, four weekday dummy variables, including the demand and wind for the actual hour. We test the model in a simple linear regression framework with cross-validation. Next, we utilize regularized regressions including Ridge and Lasso.  Finally, we utilize a Keras neural network. The models are evaluated with the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) criterion, R-square and scatterplots. The results demonstrate that the models perform well and could add value for a market player

Total Cost Efficiency Analysis for Regulatory Purposes

Abstract This paper describes the issue economic regulators face when assessing the relative performance of network utilities by means of economic benchmarking. Using examples from two European regulatory agencies, we discuss how total expenditure (totex) benchmarking can achieve more consistent outcomes than building-blocks benchmarking, while generating a new set of practical issues which will make this regulatory tool feasible only under a specific set of (mainly countryspecific) circumstances

Implementation of recommended trauma system criteria in south-eastern Norway: a cross-sectional hospital survey

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Formalized trauma systems have shown beneficial effects on patient survival and have harvested great recognition among health care professionals. In spite of this, the implementation of trauma systems is challenging and often met with resistance.</p> <p>Recommendations for a national trauma system in Norway were published in 2007. We wanted to assess the level of implementation of these recommendations.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A survey of all acute care hospitals that receive severely injured patients in the south-eastern health region of Norway was conducted. A structured questionnaire based on the 2007 national recommendations was used in a telephone interview of hospital trauma personnel between January 17 and 21, 2011. Seventeen trauma system criteria were identified from the recommendations.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Nineteen hospitals were included in the study and these received more than 2000 trauma patients annually via their trauma teams. Out of the 17 criteria that had been identified, the hospitals fulfilled a median of 12 criteria. Neither the size of the hospitals nor the distance between the hospitals and the regional trauma centre affected the level of trauma resources available. The hospitals scored lowest on the criteria for transfer of patients to higher level of care and on the training requirements for members of the trauma teams.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our study identifies a major shortcoming in the efforts of regionalizing trauma in our region. The findings indicate that training of personnel and protocols for inter-hospital transfer are the major deficiencies from the national trauma system recommendations. Resources for training of personnel partaking in trauma teams and development of inter-hospital transfer agreements should receive immediate attention.</p

The flow based market coupling arrangement in Europe: Implications for traders

A new method for congestion management, flow based market coupling (FBMC), launched on May 21, 2015 in the Central Western European (CWE) region. Prior to this, no similar congestion method has been implemented elsewhere. FBMC models the electrical network, considering cross-border exchanges including security constraints. The flows span all available parallel paths as governed by the laws of physics. The objective is to optimize market flows and social welfare. FBMC allocates cross-border flows considering power transfer distribution factors (PTDFs) which describe the sensitivity of a change in import/export at a particular country. The PTDF matrix and the remaining available margin (RAM) determine the feasible transmission region at any given point in time. On a daily basis, the Capacity Auctioning Service Company (CASC) gives information about maximum bilateral exchanges, minimum and maximum net positions and PTDFs for the day-ahead market. This daily tool serves as a framework for analyzing potential congestion in the CWE region and price coupling of markets in individual hours. We explain how traders can apply the CASC tool to analyze potential congestion and identify trade opportunities. We discuss some approaches to analyze the FBMC beyond the day-ahead market.The flow based market coupling arrangement in Europe: Implications for traderspublishedVersio

The flow based market coupling arrangement in Europe: Implications for traders

A new method for congestion management, flow based market coupling (FBMC), launched on May 21, 2015 in the Central Western European (CWE) region. Prior to this, no similar congestion method has been implemented elsewhere. FBMC models the electrical network, considering cross-border exchanges including security constraints. The flows span all available parallel paths as governed by the laws of physics. The objective is to optimize market flows and social welfare. FBMC allocates cross-border flows considering power transfer distribution factors (PTDFs) which describe the sensitivity of a change in import/export at a particular country. The PTDF matrix and the remaining available margin (RAM) determine the feasible transmission region at any given point in time. On a daily basis, the Capacity Auctioning Service Company (CASC) gives information about maximum bilateral exchanges, minimum and maximum net positions and PTDFs for the day-ahead market. This daily tool serves as a framework for analyzing potential congestion in the CWE region and price coupling of markets in individual hours. We explain how traders can apply the CASC tool to analyze potential congestion and identify trade opportunities. We discuss some approaches to analyze the FBMC beyond the day-ahead market

Risk Management in Electricity Markets Emphasizing Transmission Congestion

This thesis analyzes transmission pricing, transmission congestion risks and their associated hedging instruments as well as mechanisms for stimulating investments in transmission expansion. An example of risk management in the case of a hydropower producer is included. After liberalization and restructuring of electricity markets, risk management has become important. In particular the thesis analyzes risks due to transmission congestion both in the short- and long-term (investments) for market players such as generators, loads, traders, independent system operators and merchant investors. The work is focused on the northeastern United States electricity markets and the Nordic electricity markets. The first part of the thesis reviews the literature related to the eight research papers in the thesis. This describes the risks that are relevant for an electricity market player and how these can be managed. Next, the basic ingredients of a competitive electricity market are described including the design of the system operator. The transmission pricing method is decisive for hedging against transmission congestion risks and there is an overview of transmission pricing models considering their similarities and differences. Depending on the transmission pricing method used, locational or area (zonal) pricing, the electricity market players can use financial transmission rights or Contracts for Differences, respectively. In the long-term it is important to create mechanisms for investments in transmission expansion and the thesis describes one possible approach and its potential problems. The second part comprises eight research papers. It presents empirical analyses of existing markets for transmission congestion derivatives, theoretical analyses of transmission congestion derivatives, modeling of merchant long-term financial transmission rights, theoretical analysis of the risks of the independent system operator in providing financial transmission rights, an analysis of inefficiencies associated with ignoring losses when utilizing area (zonal) pricing, and an application of an integrated risk management model on the power system of Norway’s second largest hydropower producer. The most important research findings include the following issues. First, Contracts for Differences in the Nordic market appear to be over-priced. Second, a merchant long-term financial transmission rights model is possible to realize in mathematical and economic terms. Third, by including the proceeds from a financial transmission right auction the independent system operator can issue a higher volume of rights because there is a relationship between the congestion rent, the proceeds from the auction and the payments to the financial transmission rights holders. Fourth, ignoring losses in the Norwegian area pricing, can lead to inefficiencies. Next, an integrated risk management model is applicable on large-scale power systems. Then, an overview is presented of different contractual arrangements that can be used to hedge transmission congestion risks. Finally, empirical data from existing financial transmission rights markets demonstrate how these markets work