The variable impact of ENSO events on regional dengue/DHF in Indonesia

Although studies have demonstrated significant associations between ENSO events and dengue fever, few have explored regional impacts on dengue fever of separate events. This study explores the impacts of two ENSO events on regional patterns of dengue/ dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) incidence in Indonesia. Data consist of monthly cases of dengue/DHF from 1992 to 2001 for each of Indonesia's 27 provinces, and monthly figures for rainfall, rainfall anomalies, temperature, relative humidity and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). We conducted Pearson correlation analyses for each independent variable against dengue/DHF incidence, using a direct month-by-month correlation and applying a lag of between one and six months to each variable with respect to dengue/DHF incidence. Based on the SOI value, we identified two ENSO events between 1992 and 2001. To explore each event, we created two dummy variables and in regression analyses for eight provinces. The variance of between 12.9 per cent and 24.5 per cent in provincial dengue/DHF incidence is explained by two or three climate variables in each of the provinces (p < 0.01 to 0.1). During the 1997/98 event, the explained variance increased by between 7 per cent and 15 per cent in provinces whose climate regimes were most affected by this event. This study demonstrates that indicators of ENSO such as the SOI may assist in the forecast of potential dengue/DHF incidence and distribution in Indonesia

Demographic, seasonal, and spatial differences in acute myocardial infarction admissions to hospital in Melbourne Australia

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Seasonal patterns in cardiac disease in the northern hemisphere are well described in the literature. More recently age and gender differences in cardiac mortality and to a lesser extent morbidity have been presented. To date spatial differences between the seasonal patterns of cardiac disease has not been presented. Literature relating to seasonal patterns in cardiac disease in the southern hemisphere and in Australia in particular is scarce. The aim of this paper is to describe the seasonal, age, gender, and spatial patterns of cardiac disease in Melbourne Australia by using acute myocardial infarction admissions to hospital as a marker of cardiac disease.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>There were 33,165 Acute Myocardial Infarction (AMI) admissions over 2186 consecutive days. There is a seasonal pattern in AMI admissions with increased rates during the colder months. The peak month is July. The admissions rate is greater for males than for females, although this difference decreases with advancing age. The maximal AMI season for males extends from April to November. The difference between months of peak and minimum admissions was 33.7%. Increased female AMI admissions occur from May to November, with a variation between peak and minimum of 23.1%. Maps of seasonal AMI admissions demonstrate spatial differences. Analysis using Global and Local Moran's I showed increased spatial clustering during the warmer months. The Bivariate Moran's I statistic indicated a weaker relationship between AMI and age during the warmer months.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>There are two distinct seasons with increased admissions during the colder part of the year. Males present a stronger seasonal pattern than females. There are spatial differences in AMI admissions throughout the year that cannot be explained by the age structure of the population. The seasonal difference in AMI admissions warrants further investigation. This includes detailing the prevalence of cardiac disease in the community and examining issues of social and environmental justice.</p

The effects of summer temperature, age and socioeconomic circumstance on Acute Myocardial Infarction admissions in Melbourne, Australia

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Published literature detailing the effects of heatwaves on human health is readily available. However literature describing the effects of heat on morbidity is less plentiful, as is research describing events in the southern hemisphere and Australia in particular. To identify susceptible populations and direct public health responses research must move beyond description of the temperature morbidity relationship to include social and spatial risk factors. This paper presents a spatial and socio-demographic picture of the effects of hot weather on persons admitted to hospital with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in Melbourne.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In this study, the use of a spatial and socio-economic perspective has identified two groups within the population that have an increased 'risk' of AMI admissions to hospital during hot weather. AMI increases during hot weather were only identified in the most disadvantaged and the least disadvantaged areas. Districts with higher AMI admissions rates during hot weather also had larger proportions of older residents. Age provided some explanation for the spatial distribution of AMI admissions on single hot days whereas socio-economic circumstance did not. During short periods (3-days) of hot weather, age explained the spatial distribution of AMI admissions slightly better than socioeconomic circumstance.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This study has demonstrated that both age and socioeconomic inequality contribute to AMI admissions to hospital in Melbourne during hot weather. By using socioeconomic circumstance to define quintiles, differences in AMI admissions were quantified and demographic differences in AMI admissions were described. Including disease specificity into climate-health research methods is necessary to identify climate-sensitive diseases and highlight the burden of climate-sensitive disease in the community. Cardiac disease is a major cause of death and disability and identifying cardiac-specific climate thresholds and the spatio-demographic characteristics of vulnerable groups within populations is an important step towards preventative health care by informing public health officials and providing a guide for an early heat-health warning system. This information is especially important under current climatic conditions and for assessing the future impact of climate change.</p

The Air-temperature Response to Green/blue-infrastructure Evaluation Tool (TARGET v1.0) : an efficient and user-friendly model of city cooling

The adverse impacts of urban heat and global climate change are leading policymakers to consider green and blue infrastructure (GBI) for heat mitigation benefits. Though many models exist to evaluate the cooling impacts of GBI, their complexity and computational demand leaves most of them largely inaccessible to those without specialist expertise and computing facilities. Here a new model called The Air-temperature Response to Green/blue-infrastructure Evaluation Tool (TARGET) is presented. TARGET is designed to be efficient and easy to use, with fewer user-defined parameters and less model input data required than other urban climate models. TARGET can be used to model average street-level air temperature at canyon-to-block scales (e.g. 100 m resolution), meaning it can be used to assess temperature impacts of suburb-to-city-scale GBI proposals. The model aims to balance realistic representation of physical processes and computation efficiency. An evaluation against two different datasets shows that TARGET can reproduce the magnitude and patterns of both air temperature and surface temperature within suburban environments. To demonstrate the utility of the model for planners and policymakers, the results from two precinct-scale heat mitigation scenarios are presented. TARGET is available to the public, and ongoing development, including a graphical user interface, is planned for future work

forestry under climate change is time a tool for sustainable forest management

Changing climate conditions are known to influence forest tree growth response and the CO2 cycle. Dendroclimatological research has shown that the climate signal, species composition, and growth trends have changed in different types of forest ecosystems during the last century. Under current and demonstrated changes in climate variability at the geographic, regional, and local levels tree growth shows also variability and trends that can be non-stationary during time even at relatively short distance between sites. In forest planning and management, yield tables, site quality indices, age class, rate of growth, and spatial distribution are some of the most used tools and parameters. However, these methods do not involve climate variability during time although climate is the main driver in trends of forest and tree growth. Previous research warns about the risk that forest management under changing climatic conditions could amplify their negative effects. For example, changing climate conditions may impact on temperature and/or precipitation thresholds critical to forest tree growth. Forest biomass, resilience, and CO2 storage may be damaged unless forest planning and management implement the relationships between climate variability and trends of tree growth. A positive aspect is that, periods of favorable climate conditions may allow harvesting higher amount of wood mass and storing more CO2 than traditional planning methods. And, the average length of both favorable and adverse periods appears to occur within the validity period of a forest management plan. Here, we show a conceptual development to implement climate variability in forest management in the view of continuing the research

Sources and pathways of dust during the Australian 'Millennium Drought' decade

From the late 1990s to mid-2010, Australia was affected by a prolonged period of drought, the “Millennium Drought,” during which numerous severe dust storms crossed the continent. We inspect this period to produce the first continental-scale climatology of air-parcel trajectories that is specific to dust and use it to gain new insights into dust transport dynamics over the eastern half of Australia. The analysis is based upon dust arrival times from airport meteorological observations made at nine mostly coastal cities for 2000–2009. The Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model was used to calculate 1.26 million backward trajectories from receptor cities, with only those trajectories associated with a dust storm observation considered in the analysis of dust transport. To tie dust trajectories from receptors to likely emission sources, trajectories were linked to six known major dust source regions in and around the Lake Eyre Basin. The Lake Eyre North ephemeral lake system, alluvial-dominated Channel Country, and agricultural Mallee-Riverina regions emerge as important sources for the period, providing variable contributions to different parts of the seaboard as controlled by different front-related wind systems. Our study also provides new detail regarding dust pathways from continental Australia. For the Millennium Drought we identify that the broadly established Southeast Dust Path may be more accurately subdivided into three active pathways, driven by prefrontal northerly winds and a variation in the influence of frontal westerlies. The detail of these pathways has implications for dust delivery from specific Australian sources to different marine environments

Sources and pathways of dust during the Australian "Millennium Drought" decade

From the late 1990s to mid-2010, Australia was affected by a prolonged period of drought, the “Millennium Drought,” during which numerous severe dust storms crossed the continent. We inspect this period to produce the first continental-scale climatology of air-parcel trajectories that is specific to dust and use it to gain new insights into dust transport dynamics over the eastern half of Australia. The analysis is based upon dust arrival times from airport meteorological observations made at nine mostly coastal cities for 2000–2009. The Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model was used to calculate 1.26 million backward trajectories from receptor cities, with only those trajectories associated with a dust storm observation considered in the analysis of dust transport. To tie dust trajectories from receptors to likely emission sources, trajectories were linked to six known major dust source regions in and around the Lake Eyre Basin. The Lake Eyre North ephemeral lake system, alluvial-dominated Channel Country, and agricultural Mallee-Riverina regions emerge as important sources for the period, providing variable contributions to different parts of the seaboard as controlled by different front-related wind systems. Our study also provides new detail regarding dust pathways from continental Australia. For the Millennium Drought we identify that the broadly established Southeast Dust Path may be more accurately subdivided into three active pathways, driven by prefrontal northerly winds and a variation in the influence of frontal westerlies. The detail of these pathways has implications for dust delivery from specific Australian sources to different marine environmentsThe authors gratefully acknowledge the Australian Research Council (DP0772180) for funding this research