Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 278:Price transmission and effects of exchange rates on domestic commodity prices via offshore and currency hedging

The framework presents how trading in the foreign commodity futures market and the forward exchange market can affect the optimal spot positions of domestic commodity producers and traders. It generalizes the models of Kawai and Zilcha (1986) and Kofman and Viaene (1991) to allow both intermediate and final commodities to be traded in the international and futures markets, and the exporters/importers to face production shock, domestic factor costs and a random price. Applying mean-variance expected utility, we find that a rise in the expected exchange rate can raise both supply and demand for commodities and reduce domestic prices if the exchange rate elasticity of supply is greater than that of demand. Whether higher volatilities of exchange rate and foreign futures price can reduce the optimal spot position of domestic traders depends on the correlation between the exchange rate and the foreign futures price. Even though the forward exchange market is unbiased, and there is no correlation between commodity prices and exchange rates, the exchange rate can still affect domestic trading and prices through offshore hedging and international trade if the traders are interested in their profit in domestic currency. It illustrates how the world prices and foreign futures prices of commodities and their volatility can be transmitted to the domestic market as well as the dynamic relationship between intermediate and final goods prices. The equilibrium prices depends on trader behaviour i.e. who trades or does not trade in the foreign commodity futures and domestic forward currency markets. The empirical result applying a two-stage-least-squares approach to Thai rice and rubber prices supports the theoretical result

Islamic Calendar Anomalies: Pakistani Practitioners' Perspective

Studies on Islamic calendar anomalies in financial markets tend to apply quantitative analysis to historic share prices. Surprisingly, there is a lack of research investigating whether the participants of such markets are aware of these anomalies and whether these anomalies affect their investment practice. Or is it a case that these practitioners are completely unaware of the anomalies present in these markets and are missing out on profitable opportunities? The purpose of this paper is to analyse the views of influential participants within the Pakistani stock market

Comparing SRI funds to conventional funds using a PCA methodology

In this paper, we investigate characteristic differences between Socially Responsible Investment (SRI) funds and conventional funds across 35 different categories, including previously unexplored areas, such as fund manager skills and investment strategies. Further, we examine SRI and conventional funds globally rather than from just one country (e.g., US) or one region (e.g., Europe), covering funds listed in 22 different countries. We also adopt a new Principal Component Analysis (PCA) methodology for matching SRI funds against their conventional counterparts that significantly increases the sample size from previous studies, reducing selection bias and possibly explaining contradictory findings in the prior literature. Contributing to the literature, our findings show that: (i) SRI funds have more diversified portfolios than conventional funds; (ii) SRI funds have lower cash holdings while investing more in US equities; and (iii) SRI fund managers charge a smaller fee and are more successful in managing their portfolios. This is reassuring for investors who invest in SRI funds and for the future health and sustainability of the planet

The relationship between South Asian stock returns and macroeconomic variables

This article investigates whether economic variables have explanatory power for share returns in South Asian stock markets. In particular, using data for four South Asian emerging stock markets over the period 1998 – 2012, the article examines the influence of a selection of local, regional and global economic variables in explaining equity returns; most previous studies that have examined this issue have tended to focus on only local and/or global factors. Important factors are identified by distilling the macroeconomic variables into principal components. Economic activities, real interest rates, real exchange rates and the trade balance represent local factors. Regional factors are represented by inter-regional trade and regional economic activity while global factors are represented by world financial asset returns and world economic activity. The Vector Autoregression results suggest that the South Asian markets examined are not efficient. Both local and regional factors can directly and indirectly explain Bangladeshi, Pakistani and Sri Lankan stock returns while the lagged returns of the Pakistani stock market and world economic activity can explain Indian stock returns

Equilibrium moment restrictions on asset returns: normal and crisis periods

Empirically, the covariance between stock returns varies with their volatility. We seek a robust theoretical explanation of this. With minimal assumptions, we model stochastic properties of equilibrium returns which result from the interaction between inter-temporal traders and noisy, price-sensitive short-term traders. The inter-temporal traders can have arbitrary investment rules, preferences and information. In all cases we find a set of restrictions between second moments of equilibrium returns. With two assets there is also a bound on the correlation between asset returns. Estimation with second moments of global stock returns supports our theoretical framework. Higher volatility in at least one market can increase comovement among markets. With globalization, covariances between two stock markets can also affect covariances between two other stock markets. We also find that the changes in trader behavior between normal and crisis periods lead to changes in the moment restrictions between asset returns

Determinants of equity return correlations: a case study of the Amman Stock Exchange

This paper seeks to explain time-varying correlations among equity returns. The literature has shown that fundamental and economic factors can explain stock returns or the volatility of markets. Here, panel data analysis is employed to examine whether these factors can also explain the comovement of stock returns. Time-varying correlations among sectoral indexes are estimated using a restricted multivariate threshold GARCH model with dynamic conditional correlation controlling for the asymmetric effects of news and the influence of financial crises. The empirical results from this panel data analysis show that equity return correlations can be explained not only by macroeconomic variables but also by fundamentals within an industry

Islamic calendar anomalies: evidence from Pakistani firm-level data

Most prior research has tested for monthly regularities based on the Gregorian calendar; by contrast, little attention has been given to other calendars based on different religions or cultures. This paper examines Islamic monthly anomalies in a stock market located within a Muslim country – Pakistan. The study employs data for 106 companies listed on the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) over the period from 1995 to 2011 and an asymmetric generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model to examine whether the mean value and volatility of share returns in the KSE vary with Islamic months. The results from the model offer very little statistical evidence of a monthly seasonal anomaly in average returns, but there is evidence of monthly patterns in the volatility of returns for KSE equities. This finding suggests that investors can formulate an investment strategy and choose a trading time in order to outperform on a risk-adjusted basis

Taking advantage of Ramadan and January in Muslim countries

Studies have shown that religious beliefs and practice play an important role in influencing share price behaviour. Evidence of a Ramadan effect has been documented in Muslim countries suggesting an increase in mean returns as well as a reduction in volatility during the ninth month of the Islamic calendar. In addition to the Ramadan effect, studies have also documented a January effect in Muslim countries. The current study investigates what happens when the Ramadan effect and the January effect occur at the same time. Controlling for the effects of financial crises and time-varying volatility in returns, the results for individual company data from four countries with sizeable Muslim populations indicate higher returns and lower volatility when these two effects overlap, except in one, arguably more Western country, Turkey