Predicting Emergency Department “Bouncebacks”: A Retrospective Cohort Analysis

Introduction: The short-term return visit rate among patients discharged from emergency departments (ED) is a quality metric and target for interventions. The ability to accurately identify which patients are more likely to revisit the ED could allow EDs and health systems to develop more focused interventions, but efforts to reduce revisits have not yet found success. Whether patients with a high number of ED visits are at increased risk of a return visit remains underexplored.Methods: This was a population-based, retrospective, cohort study using administrative data from a large physician partnership. We included patients discharged from EDs from 80 hospitals in seven states from July 2014 – June 2016. We performed multivariable logistic regression of short-term return visits on patient, visit, hospital, and community characteristics. The primary outcome was the proportion of patients who had a return visit within 14 days of an index ED visit.Results: Among 6,699,717 index visits, the overall risk of 14-day revisit was 12.6%. Frequent visitors accounted for 18.7% of all visits and 40.2% of all 14-day revisits. Frequent visitor status was associated with the highest odds of a revisit (odds ratio [OR] 3.06; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.041 – 3.073). Other predictors of revisits were cellulitis (OR 2.131; 95% CI, 2.106 – 2.156), alcohol-related disorders (OR 1.579; 95%CI, 1.548 – 1.610), congestive heart failure (OR 1.175; 95% CI, 1.126 – 1.226), and public insurance (Medicaid OR 1.514; 95% CI, 1.501 – 1.528; Medicare OR 1.601; 95% CI, 1.583 – 1.620).Conclusion: Previous ED use – even a single previous visit – was a stronger predictor of a return visit than any other patient, hospital, or community characteristic. Clinicians should consider previous ED use when considering treatment decisions and risk of return visit, as should stakeholders targeting patients at risk of a return visit

A prospective study of symptoms, function, and medication use during acute illness in nursing home residents: design, rationale and cohort description

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Nursing home residents are at high risk for developing acute illnesses. Compared with community dwelling adults, nursing home residents are often more frail, prone to multiple medical problems and symptoms, and are at higher risk for adverse outcomes from acute illnesses. In addition, because of polypharmacy and the high burden of chronic disease, nursing home residents are particularly vulnerable to disruptions in transitions of care such as medication interruptions in the setting of acute illness. In order to better estimate the effect of acute illness on nursing home residents, we have initiated a prospective cohort which will allow us to observe patterns of acute illnesses and the consequence of acute illnesses, including symptoms and function, among nursing home residents. We also aim to examine the patterns of medication interruption, and identify patient, provider and environmental factors that influence continuity of medication prescribing at different points of care transition.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This is a prospective cohort of nursing home residents residing in two nursing homes in a metropolitan area. Baseline characteristics including age, gender, race, and comorbid conditions are recorded. Participants are followed longitudinally for a planned period of 3 years. We record acute illness incidence and characteristics, and measure symptoms including depression, pain, withdrawal symptoms, and function using standardized scales.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>76 nursing home residents have been followed for a median of 666 days to date. At baseline, mean age of residents was 74.4 (± 11.9); 32% were female; 59% were white. The most common chronic conditions were dementia (41%), depression (38%), congestive heart failure (25%) and chronic obstructive lung disease (27%). Mean pain score was 4.7 (± 3.6) on a scale of 0 to 10; Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS-15) score was 5.2 (± 4.4). During follow up, 138 acute illness episodes were identified, for an incidence of 1.5 (SD 2.0) episodes per resident per year; 74% were managed in the nursing home and 26% managed in the acute care setting.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In this report, we describe the conceptual model and methods of designing a longitudinal cohort to measure acute illness patterns and symptoms among nursing home residents, and describe the characteristics of our cohort at baseline. In our planned analysis, we will further estimate the effect of the use and interruption of medications on withdrawal and relapse symptoms and illness outcomes.</p

Temperature and time stability of whole blood lactate: implications for feasibility of pre-hospital measurement.

Background To determine the time and temperature stability of whole blood lactate using experimental conditions applicable to the out-of-hospital environment. Findings We performed a prospective, clinical laboratory-based study at an academic hospital. Whole blood lactate was obtained by venipuncture from five post-prandial, resting subjects. Blood was stored in lithium heparinized vacutainers in three temperature conditions: 1) room temperature (20°C), 2) wrapped in a portable, instant ice pack (0°C), or 3) wet ice (0°C). Lactate concentrations (mmol/L) were measured at 0, 5, 10, 20, and 30 minutes after sampling, and compared using repeated measures analysis of variance. Mean baseline lactate among resting subjects (N = 5) was 1.24 mmol/L (95%CI: 0.49,1.98 mmol/L). After 30 minutes, lactate concentration increased, on average, by 0.08 mmol/L (95%CI: 0.02,0.13 mmol/L), 0.18 mmol/L (95%CI: 0.07,0.28 mmol/L), and 0.36 mmol/L (95%CI: 0.24,0.47 mmol/L) when stored in wet ice, ice pack, and room temperature, respectively. The increase in lactate was similar in samples wrapped in portable ice pack or stored in wet ice at all time points (p > 0.05), and met criteria for equivalence at 30 minutes. However, lactate measurements from whole blood stored at room temperature were significantly greater, on average, than wet ice or portable ice pack within five and ten minutes, respectively (p < 0.05). Conclusions Whole blood lactate measurements using samples stored in a portable ice pack are similar to wet ice for up to 30 minutes. These conditions are applicable to the out-of-hospital environment, and should inform future studies of pre-hospital measurement of lactate.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/85785/1/Seymour - Temperature and time stability.pd

Vignette studies of medical choice and judgement to study caregivers' medical decision behaviour: systematic review

BACKGROUND: Vignette studies of medical choice and judgement have gained popularity in the medical literature. Originally developed in mathematical psychology they can be used to evaluate physicians' behaviour in the setting of diagnostic testing or treatment decisions. We provide an overview of the use, objectives and methodology of these studies in the medical field. METHODS: Systematic review. We searched in electronic databases; reference lists of included studies. We included studies that examined medical decisions of physicians, nurses or medical students using cue weightings from answers to structured vignettes. Two reviewers scrutinized abstracts and examined full text copies of potentially eligible studies. The aim of the included studies, the type of clinical decision, the number of participants, some technical aspects, and the type of statistical analysis were extracted in duplicate and discrepancies were resolved by consensus. RESULTS: 30 reports published between 1983 and 2005 fulfilled the inclusion criteria. 22 studies (73%) reported on treatment decisions and 27 (90%) explored the variation of decisions among experts. Nine studies (30%) described differences in decisions between groups of caregivers and ten studies (33%) described the decision behaviour of only one group. Only six studies (20%) compared decision behaviour against an empirical reference of a correct decision. The median number of considered attributes was 6.5 (IQR 4-9), the median number of vignettes was 27 (IQR 16-40). In 17 studies, decision makers had to rate the relative importance of a given vignette; in six studies they had to assign a probability to each vignette. Only ten studies (33%) applied a statistical procedure to account for correlated data. CONCLUSION: Various studies of medical choice and judgement have been performed to depict weightings of the value of clinical information from answers to structured vignettes of care givers. We found that the design and analysis methods used in current applications vary considerably and could be improved in a large number of cases

Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Emergency Department Analgesic Prescription

Objectives. We examined racial and ethnic disparities in analgesic prescription among a national sample of emergency department patients. Methods. We analyzed Black, Latino, and White patients in the 1997–1999 National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Surveys to compare prescription of any analgesics and opioid analgesics by race/ethnicity. Results. For any analgesic, no association was found between race and prescription; opioids, however, were less likely to be prescribed to Blacks than to Whites with migraines and back pain, though race was not significant for patients with long bone fracture. Differences in opioid use between Latinos and Whites with the same conditions were less and nonsignificant. Conclusions. Physicians were less likely to prescribe opioids to Blacks; this disparity appears greatest for conditions with fewer objective findings (e.g., migraine)

Predicting Emergency Department “Bouncebacks”: A Retrospective Cohort Analysis

Introduction: The short-term return visit rate among patients discharged from emergency departments (ED) is a quality metric and target for interventions. The ability to accurately identify which patients are more likely to revisit the ED could allow EDs and health systems to develop more focused interventions, but efforts to reduce revisits have not yet found success. Whether patients with a high number of ED visits are at increased risk of a return visit remains underexplored.Methods: This was a population-based, retrospective, cohort study using administrative data from a large physician partnership. We included patients discharged from EDs from 80 hospitals in seven states from July 2014 – June 2016. We performed multivariable logistic regression of short-term return visits on patient, visit, hospital, and community characteristics. The primary outcome was the proportion of patients who had a return visit within 14 days of an index ED visit.Results: Among 6,699,717 index visits, the overall risk of 14-day revisit was 12.6%. Frequent visitors accounted for 18.7% of all visits and 40.2% of all 14-day revisits. Frequent visitor status was associated with the highest odds of a revisit (odds ratio [OR] 3.06; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.041 – 3.073). Other predictors of revisits were cellulitis (OR 2.131; 95% CI, 2.106 – 2.156), alcohol-related disorders (OR 1.579; 95%CI, 1.548 – 1.610), congestive heart failure (OR 1.175; 95% CI, 1.126 – 1.226), and public insurance (Medicaid OR 1.514; 95% CI, 1.501 – 1.528; Medicare OR 1.601; 95% CI, 1.583 – 1.620).Conclusion: Previous ED use – even a single previous visit – was a stronger predictor of a return visit than any other patient, hospital, or community characteristic. Clinicians should consider previous ED use when considering treatment decisions and risk of return visit, as should stakeholders targeting patients at risk of a return visit