Bayesian splines versus fractional polynomials in network meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Network meta-analysis (NMA) provides a powerful tool for the simultaneous evaluation of multiple treatments by combining evidence from different studies, allowing for direct and indirect comparisons between treatments. In recent years, NMA is becoming increasingly popular in the medical literature and underlying statistical methodologies are evolving both in the frequentist and Bayesian framework. Traditional NMA models are often based on the comparison of two treatment arms per study. These individual studies may measure outcomes at multiple time points that are not necessarily homogeneous across studies. METHODS: In this article we present a Bayesian model based on B-splines for the simultaneous analysis of outcomes across time points, that allows for indirect comparison of treatments across different longitudinal studies. RESULTS: We illustrate the proposed approach in simulations as well as on real data examples available in the literature and compare it with a model based on P-splines and one based on fractional polynomials, showing that our approach is flexible and overcomes the limitations of the latter. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed approach is computationally efficient and able to accommodate a large class of temporal treatment effect patterns, allowing for direct and indirect comparisons of widely varying shapes of longitudinal profiles

Bayesian Autoregressive Frailty Models for Inference in Recurrent Events

We propose autoregressive Bayesian semi-parametric models for gap times between recurrent events. The aim is two-fold: inference on the effect of possibly time-varying covariates on the gap times and clustering of individuals based on the time trajectory of the recurrent event. Time-dependency between gap times is taken into account through the specification of an autoregressive component for the frailty parameters influencing the response at different times. The order of the autoregression may be assumed unknown and is an object of inference. We consider two alternative approaches to perform model selection under this scenario. Covariates may be easily included in the regression framework and censoring and missing data are easily accounted for. As the proposed methodologies lie within the class of Dirichlet process mixtures, posterior inference can be performed through efficient MCMC algorithms. We illustrate the approach through simulations and medical applications involving recurrent hospitalizations of cancer patients and successive urinary tract infections

AdS Phase Transitions at finite \kappa

We investigate the effect of adding a Chern-Simons term coupled to an axion field to SU(2) Einstein-Yang-Mills in a fixed $AdS_4$/Schwarzschild background. We show that, when the axion has no potential, there is a phase transition between a Reissner-Nordstrom black-hole and one with a non-abelian condensate as per the vanishing Chern-Simons case. Furthermore, by giving the axion field a mass, one observes a phase transition between a Reissner-Nordstrom black-hole with axion hair to a "superconducting" phase which also has a non-trivial axion profile. We are able to perform a preliminary analysis for this interesting case and observe that we can shift the critical temperature at which the phase transition occurs and observe interesting features of the order parameter scaling form.Comment: Version Published in JHE

Paratransgenesis to control malaria vectors: a semi-field pilot study

BACKGROUND: Malaria still remains a serious health burden in developing countries, causing more than 1 million deaths annually. Given the lack of an effective vaccine against its major etiological agent, Plasmodium falciparum, and the growing resistance of this parasite to the currently available drugs repertoire and of Anopheles mosquitoes to insecticides, the development of innovative control measures is an imperative to reduce malaria transmission. Paratransgenesis, the modification of symbiotic organisms to deliver anti-pathogen effector molecules, represents a novel strategy against Plasmodium development in mosquito vectors, showing the potential to reduce parasite development. However, the field application of laboratory-based evidence of paratransgenesis imposes the use of more realistic confined semi-field environments. METHODS: Large cages were used to evaluate the ability of bacteria of the genus Asaia expressing green fluorescent protein (Asaia (gfp)), to diffuse in Anopheles stephensi and Anopheles gambiae target mosquito populations. Asaia (gfp) was introduced in large cages through the release of paratransgenic males or by sugar feeding stations. Recombinant bacteria transmission was directly detected by fluorescent microscopy, and further assessed by molecular analysis. RESULTS: Here we show the first known trial in semi-field condition on paratransgenic anophelines. Modified bacteria were able to spread at high rate in different populations of An. stephensi and An. gambiae, dominant malaria vectors, exploring horizontal ways and successfully colonising mosquito midguts. Moreover, in An. gambiae, vertical and trans-stadial diffusion mechanisms were demonstrated. CONCLUSIONS: Our results demonstrate the considerable ability of modified Asaia to colonise different populations of malaria vectors, including pecies where its association is not primary, in large environments. The data support the potential to employ transgenic Asaia as a tool for malaria control, disclosing promising perspective for its field application with suitable effector molecules

Holographic Charged Fluid with Anomalous Current at Finite Cutoff Surface in Einstein-Maxwell Gravity

The holographic charged fluid with anomalous current in Einstein-Maxwell gravity has been generalized from the infinite boundary to the finite cutoff surface by using the gravity/fluid correspondence. After perturbing the boosted Reissner-Nordstrom (RN)-AdS black brane solution of the Einstein-Maxwell gravity with the Chern-Simons term, we obtain the first order perturbative gravitational and Maxwell solutions, and calculate the stress tensor and charged current of the dual fluid at finite cutoff surfaces which contains undetermined parameters after demanding regularity condition at the future horizon. We adopt the Dirichlet boundary condition and impose the Landau frame to fix these parameters, finally obtain the dependence of transport coefficients in the dual stress tensor and charged current on the arbitrary radical cutoff $r_c$. We find that the dual fluid is not conformal, but it has vanishing bulk viscosity, and the shear viscosity to entropy density ratio is universally $1/4\pi$. Other transport coefficients of the dual current turns out to be cutoff-dependent. In particular, the chiral vortical conductivity expressed in terms of thermodynamic quantities takes the same form as that of the dual fluid at the asymptotic AdS boundary, and the chiral magnetic conductivity receives a cutoff-dependent correction which vanishes at the infinite boundary.Comment: 19 pages, v2: references added, v3: typos corrected, v5: typos corrected, version accepted for publication in JHE

Maxwell-Chern-Simons Vortices and Holographic Superconductors

We investigate probe limit vortex solutions of a charged scalar field in Einstein-Maxwell theory in 3+1 dimensions, for an asymptotically AdS Schwarzschild black hole metric with the addition of an axionic coupling to the Maxwell field. We show that the inclusion of such a term, together with a suitable potential for the axion field, can induce an effective Chern-Simons term on the 2+1 dimensional boundary. We obtain numerical solutions of the equations of motion and find Maxwell-Chern-Simons like magnetic vortex configurations, where the magnetic field profile varies with the size of the effective Chern-Simons coupling. The axion field has a non-trivial profile inside the AdS bulk but does not condense at spatial infinity.Comment: 17 pages, 5 figures, version accepted for publication in JHE

Non-conformal Hydrodynamics in Einstein-dilaton Theory

In the Einestein-dilaton theory with a Liouville potential parameterized by $\eta$, we find a Schwarzschild-type black hole solution. This black hole solution, whose asymptotic geometry is described by the warped metric, is thermodynamically stable only for $0 \le \eta < 2$. Applying the gauge/gravity duality, we find that the dual gauge theory represents a non-conformal thermal system with the equation of state depending on $\eta$. After turning on the bulk vector fluctuations with and without a dilaton coupling, we calculate the charge diffusion constant, which indicates that the life time of the quasi normal mode decreases with $\eta$. Interestingly, the vector fluctuation with the dilaton coupling shows that the DC conductivity increases with temperature, a feature commonly found in electrolytes.Comment: 27 pages and 2 figures, published in JHE

Non Abelian Tachyon Kinks

Starting from the action of two coincident non-BPS D9-branes, we investigate kink configurations of the U(2) matrix tachyon field. We consider both Str and Tr prescriptions for the trace over gauge indices of the non-BPS action. Non-abelian tachyon condensation in the theory with Tr prescription, and the resulting fluctuations about the kink profile, are shown to give rise to a theory of two coincident BPS D8-branes. This is a natural non-abelian generalization of Sen's mechanism of tachyon condensation on a single non-BPS Dp-brane yielding a single BPS brane of codimesion one. By contrast, starting with the Str gauge trace prescription of the coincident non-BPS D9-brane action, such a generalization of Sen's mechanism appears problematic.Comment: 18 pages, references added, version to appear in JHE

Optimal preparation of high-entropy boride-silicon carbide ceramics

High-entropy boride-silicon carbide (HEB-SiC) ceramics were fabricated using boride-based powders prepared from borothermal and boro/carbothermal reduction methods. The effects of processing routes (borothermal reduction and boro/carbothermal reduction) on the HEB powders were examined. HEB-SiC ceramics with > 98% theoretical density were prepared by spark plasma sintering at 2000 °C. It was demonstrated that the addition of SiC led to slight coarsening of the microstructure. The HEB-SiC ceramics prepared from boro/carbothermal reduction powders showed a fine-grained microstructure and higher Vickers’ hardness but lower fracture toughness value as compared with the same composition prepared from borothermal reduction powders. These results indicated that the selection of the powder processing method and the addition of SiC phase could contribute to the optimal preparation of high-entropy boride-based ceramics