Present and Future of the Chinese Labour Market

The paper aims to provide a representation, as rich and complete as possible, of the Chinese labour market, both in terms of stock and flow, despite the fact that the statistical information is still rather poor and often inconsistent. It does then document the increasing differences in the level and trends of the main labour market variables at the provincial level. In order to reach a deeper comprehension of the dynamic of the Chinese labour market, the paper analyses two other extremely relevant phenomena: the so called “floating population” and the labour shortages that are more and more frequently affecting the coastal regions. After having provided a demographic background to the Lewis model of development with unlimited supply of labour, the paper shows in which periods China has been obliged to accumulate a large labour surplus, mainly in the agricultural sector, and in which periods and through which mechanisms, including ageing and internal migration, the process of deaccumulation has taken place. More specifically, the paper shows how up to now internal migrations have provided urban areas and coastal regions with an unlimited supply of labour, a factor that has played a major role in boosting the Chinese economic development and determining its typology. In order to reach this result, simple demographic tools have been utilized to estimate the net migration balance of each province and in each province of rural and urban areas, and therefore to define areas of departures and areas of arrival, information not provided by the literature on the floating population. Finally the paper provides a rough estimate of the disguised unemployment in agriculture and of its geographical distribution. After assessing which percentage can represent a possible supply of labour for the modern sector, it will be maintained that China not only is very close to the Lewis turning point (a situation that has already been reached in many coastal areas), but is going to become the world biggest importer of labour. In order to provide its population with living standards comparable to that of the western world, in a reasonable time interval, China needs to continue to grow at an extremely high rate. This will require the capacity to deal with a series of structural problems. Limiting our concerns to the labour market, that is characterized by increasing complexity and regional differentiation, high priority should be given to improve the collection, analysis and dissemination of labour market data; to abolish the one child policy that is totally obsolete in a situation that will be soon characterized by a structural lack of labour supply; to give to the Chinese citizens the right to freely move and change residence, while rapidly regularizing the existing floating population; to raise the legal age of retirement; to plan and implement a structure of t entries in vocational courses and higher educational paths coherent with the expected structure of the labour demand in terms of flows by occupation; to strengthen the Employment service system in order to improve skills matching at the local level, and facilitate the correct allocation of human resources over the national territory, in order to minimize the human and economic costs of future unavoidable internal migrations.China; labour market; stock and flow; demography; internal migration; Lewis turning point

Present and Future of the Chinese labour Marke

The paper aims to provide a representation, as rich and complete as possible, of the Chinese labour market, both in terms of stock and flow, despite the fact that the statistical information is still rather poor and often inconsistent. It does then document the increasing differences in the level and trends of the main labour market variables at the provincial level. In order to reach a deeper comprehension of the dynamic of the Chinese labour market, the paper analyses two other extremely relevant phenomena: the so called “floating population” and the labour shortages that are more and more frequently affecting the coastal regions. After having provided a demographic background to the Lewis model of development with unlimited supply of labour, the paper shows in which periods China has been obliged to accumulate a large labour surplus, mainly in the agricultural sector, and in which periods and through which mechanisms, including ageing and internal migration, the process of deaccumulation has taken place. More specifically, the paper shows how up to now internal migrations have provided urban areas and coastal regions with an unlimited supply of labour, a factor that has played a major role in boosting the Chinese economic development and determining its typology. In order to reach this result, simple demographic tools have been utilized to estimate the net migration balance of each province and in each province of rural and urban areas, and therefore to define areas of departures and areas of arrival, information not provided by the literature on the floating population. Finally the paper provides a rough estimate of the disguised unemployment in agriculture and of its geographical distribution. After assessing which percentage can represent a possible supply of labour for the modern sector, it will be maintained that China not only is very close to the Lewis turning point (a situation that has already been reached in many coastal areas), but is going to become the world biggest importer of labour. In order to provide its population with living standards comparable to that of the western world, in a reasonable time interval, China needs to continue to grow at an extremely high rate. This will require the capacity to deal with a series of structural problems. Limiting our concerns to the labour market, that is characterized by increasing complexity and regional differentiation, high priority should be given to improve the collection, analysis and dissemination of labour market data; to abolish the one child policy that is totally obsolete in a situation that will be soon characterized by a structural lack of labour supply; to give to the Chinese citizens the right to freely move and change residence, while rapidly regularizing the existing floating population; to raise the legal age of retirement; to plan and implement a structure of t entries in vocational courses and higher educational paths coherent with the expected structure of the labour demand in terms of flows by occupation; to strengthen the Employment service system in order to improve skills matching at the local level, and facilitate the correct allocation of human resources over the national territory, in order to minimize the human and economic costs of future unavoidable internal migrations.China; labour market; stock and flow; demography; internal migration; Lewis turning point

METHODOLOGICAL ASPECTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LIFESTYLE SURVEILLANCE TOOLKIT IN THE ASSO PROJECT

Following the presentation of the ASSO Project, as discussed in the previous issue of JSSL (Tabacchi G. 2011; 1-3: 267-269 ), one of the first objectives of the study is to develop helpful and efficient tools to create a webbased software for the collection of data on adolescent lifestyles. Different methods have been developed and used throughout Europe to collect information on adolescent lifestyles. In order to select the best methods to be used in the ASSO project, a Systematic Literature Review (SLR) on the most valid dietary and physical activity/fitness assessment methods used in the target population has been perfomed. After the SLR and a meta-analysis of the retrieved studies, different tools have been developed within ASSO, in order to create a userfriendly and cost-effective toolkit for the creation of a web-based software for the data collection. A Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) for data collection has been prepared and addressed to all the people involved in the preparation, administration and management of the questionnaires. The SOP has the purpose of standardizing methods and procedures to prevent systematic errors in the collection and reporting of data. Moreover, it is useful to provide reminders and guidelines of the correct way to deal with the information material related to the study, to perform the interviews, to manage the compilation of the questionnaire and to store the collected information. An informative letter on the project and the informed consent to be signed by the parents have been developed. After obtaining the parents’ consent, a list of all the students participating in the study will be prepared and an identification code and a password will be attributed to each student in order to respect the privacy

Cybernetics, Fuzziness and Scientific Revolutions

Settimo Termini ​pioneered along with Aldo de Luca the concept of fuzziness measures in the sixties. Today he is a Full Professor of Theoretical Computer Science at the University of Palermo and an affiliated researcher at the European Center for Soft Computing, Mieres (Asturias), Spain. He has directed from 2002 to 2009 the Istituto di Cibernetica "Eduardo Caianiello" of CNR (National Research Council) in Italy. Among his scientific interests, the introduction and formal development of the theory of (entropy) measures of fuzziness; an analysis in innovative terms of the notion of vague predicate as it appears and is used in Information Sciences, Cybernetics and AI. Recently he has been interested also in the connections between scientific research and economic development and the conceptual foundations of Fuzzy Sets and Soft Computing. He is Fellow of the International Fuzzy Systems Association and of the Accademia Nazionale di Scienze, Lettere ed Arti of Palermo. In 2015 he will be 70, and we want to celebrate his birthday with the Soft Computing community with this interview where he discusses history of Cybernetics. The interview was conducted in Italian and translated by the authors

Ecosystem engineers modulate exotic invasions in riparian plant communities by modifying hydrogeomorphic connectivity

Patterns of native and exotic plant species richness and cover were examined in relation with ecosystem engineer effects of pioneer vegetation within the Mediterranean gravel bed river Tech, South France. The floristic composition was characterized according to two distinct vegetation types corresponding to two habitats with contrasted conditions: (i) open and exposed alluvial bars dominated by herbaceous communities; and (ii) islands and river margins disconnected from annual hydrogeomorphic disturbances and covered by woody vegetation. A significant positive correlation between exotic and native plant species richness and cover was observed for both vegetation types. However, significant differences in native and exotic species richness and cover were found between these two vegetation types. Higher values of total species richness and Shannon diversity were attained within the herbaceous vegetation type than within the woody type. These differences are most likely related to changes in local exposure to hydrogeomorphic disturbances driven by woody engineer plant species and to vegetation succession. A lower exotic species cover within the woody vegetation type than within the herbaceous type suggested an increase of resistance to invasion by exotic species during the biogeomorphic succession. The engineer effects of woody vegetation through landform construction resulted in a decrease of alpha (a) diversity at the patch scale but, in parallel, caused an increase in gamma (g) diversity at the scale of the studied river segment. Our study corroborates recent investigations that support the theory of biotic acceptance of exotic species by native species at the local scale (generally <10 m2) within heterogeneous and disturbed environments. Furthermore, we suggest that in riparian contexts such as the River Tech exotic species trapp sediment at the same time as native species and thus contribute to the increase in ecosystem resistance during the biogeomorphic succession