Present and Future of the Chinese Labour Market

The paper aims to provide a representation, as rich and complete as possible, of the Chinese labour market, both in terms of stock and flow, despite the fact that the statistical information is still rather poor and often inconsistent. It does then document the increasing differences in the level and trends of the main labour market variables at the provincial level. In order to reach a deeper comprehension of the dynamic of the Chinese labour market, the paper analyses two other extremely relevant phenomena: the so called “floating population” and the labour shortages that are more and more frequently affecting the coastal regions. After having provided a demographic background to the Lewis model of development with unlimited supply of labour, the paper shows in which periods China has been obliged to accumulate a large labour surplus, mainly in the agricultural sector, and in which periods and through which mechanisms, including ageing and internal migration, the process of deaccumulation has taken place. More specifically, the paper shows how up to now internal migrations have provided urban areas and coastal regions with an unlimited supply of labour, a factor that has played a major role in boosting the Chinese economic development and determining its typology. In order to reach this result, simple demographic tools have been utilized to estimate the net migration balance of each province and in each province of rural and urban areas, and therefore to define areas of departures and areas of arrival, information not provided by the literature on the floating population. Finally the paper provides a rough estimate of the disguised unemployment in agriculture and of its geographical distribution. After assessing which percentage can represent a possible supply of labour for the modern sector, it will be maintained that China not only is very close to the Lewis turning point (a situation that has already been reached in many coastal areas), but is going to become the world biggest importer of labour. In order to provide its population with living standards comparable to that of the western world, in a reasonable time interval, China needs to continue to grow at an extremely high rate. This will require the capacity to deal with a series of structural problems. Limiting our concerns to the labour market, that is characterized by increasing complexity and regional differentiation, high priority should be given to improve the collection, analysis and dissemination of labour market data; to abolish the one child policy that is totally obsolete in a situation that will be soon characterized by a structural lack of labour supply; to give to the Chinese citizens the right to freely move and change residence, while rapidly regularizing the existing floating population; to raise the legal age of retirement; to plan and implement a structure of t entries in vocational courses and higher educational paths coherent with the expected structure of the labour demand in terms of flows by occupation; to strengthen the Employment service system in order to improve skills matching at the local level, and facilitate the correct allocation of human resources over the national territory, in order to minimize the human and economic costs of future unavoidable internal migrations.China; labour market; stock and flow; demography; internal migration; Lewis turning point

Present and Future of the Chinese labour Marke

The paper aims to provide a representation, as rich and complete as possible, of the Chinese labour market, both in terms of stock and flow, despite the fact that the statistical information is still rather poor and often inconsistent. It does then document the increasing differences in the level and trends of the main labour market variables at the provincial level. In order to reach a deeper comprehension of the dynamic of the Chinese labour market, the paper analyses two other extremely relevant phenomena: the so called “floating population” and the labour shortages that are more and more frequently affecting the coastal regions. After having provided a demographic background to the Lewis model of development with unlimited supply of labour, the paper shows in which periods China has been obliged to accumulate a large labour surplus, mainly in the agricultural sector, and in which periods and through which mechanisms, including ageing and internal migration, the process of deaccumulation has taken place. More specifically, the paper shows how up to now internal migrations have provided urban areas and coastal regions with an unlimited supply of labour, a factor that has played a major role in boosting the Chinese economic development and determining its typology. In order to reach this result, simple demographic tools have been utilized to estimate the net migration balance of each province and in each province of rural and urban areas, and therefore to define areas of departures and areas of arrival, information not provided by the literature on the floating population. Finally the paper provides a rough estimate of the disguised unemployment in agriculture and of its geographical distribution. After assessing which percentage can represent a possible supply of labour for the modern sector, it will be maintained that China not only is very close to the Lewis turning point (a situation that has already been reached in many coastal areas), but is going to become the world biggest importer of labour. In order to provide its population with living standards comparable to that of the western world, in a reasonable time interval, China needs to continue to grow at an extremely high rate. This will require the capacity to deal with a series of structural problems. Limiting our concerns to the labour market, that is characterized by increasing complexity and regional differentiation, high priority should be given to improve the collection, analysis and dissemination of labour market data; to abolish the one child policy that is totally obsolete in a situation that will be soon characterized by a structural lack of labour supply; to give to the Chinese citizens the right to freely move and change residence, while rapidly regularizing the existing floating population; to raise the legal age of retirement; to plan and implement a structure of t entries in vocational courses and higher educational paths coherent with the expected structure of the labour demand in terms of flows by occupation; to strengthen the Employment service system in order to improve skills matching at the local level, and facilitate the correct allocation of human resources over the national territory, in order to minimize the human and economic costs of future unavoidable internal migrations.China; labour market; stock and flow; demography; internal migration; Lewis turning point

When Angel Met Pinocchio

Senior Project submitted to The Division of Arts of Bard College

METHODOLOGICAL ASPECTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LIFESTYLE SURVEILLANCE TOOLKIT IN THE ASSO PROJECT

Following the presentation of the ASSO Project, as discussed in the previous issue of JSSL (Tabacchi G. 2011; 1-3: 267-269 ), one of the first objectives of the study is to develop helpful and efficient tools to create a webbased software for the collection of data on adolescent lifestyles. Different methods have been developed and used throughout Europe to collect information on adolescent lifestyles. In order to select the best methods to be used in the ASSO project, a Systematic Literature Review (SLR) on the most valid dietary and physical activity/fitness assessment methods used in the target population has been perfomed. After the SLR and a meta-analysis of the retrieved studies, different tools have been developed within ASSO, in order to create a userfriendly and cost-effective toolkit for the creation of a web-based software for the data collection. A Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) for data collection has been prepared and addressed to all the people involved in the preparation, administration and management of the questionnaires. The SOP has the purpose of standardizing methods and procedures to prevent systematic errors in the collection and reporting of data. Moreover, it is useful to provide reminders and guidelines of the correct way to deal with the information material related to the study, to perform the interviews, to manage the compilation of the questionnaire and to store the collected information. An informative letter on the project and the informed consent to be signed by the parents have been developed. After obtaining the parents’ consent, a list of all the students participating in the study will be prepared and an identification code and a password will be attributed to each student in order to respect the privacy

Present and Future of the Chinese Labour Market

ISSN: 2039-1439 a stampa ISSN: 2039-1447 on lin

Species composition and plant traits: Characterization of the biogeomorphological succession within contrasting river corridors

[EN] Plant communities and dynamics can be characterized according to species composition or plant traits. Here, we used species composition and plant traits to compare their effectiveness in discriminating the biogeomorphological (involving reciprocal feedbacks between physical and biological processes) and ecological (mainly biologically driven) phases of the fluvial biogeomorphological succession (FBS) model. The comparison was done between two French rivers, the largely unchannelized lower Allier and the channelized middle Garonne. One reach representative of each river section was selected for the study. Within each river reach, we chose two contrasted study sites in terms of channel and floodplain dynamics: a reference site (least altered channel and floodplain dynamics) and an altered site (laterally stabilized by riprap and constrained). In the four study sites, we sampled vegetation in 402 plots of 4 m2. The 512 species identified in the plots were characterized in terms of plant traits (20) from a literature review. When comparing reaches in unconstrained ordinations and per mutational multivariate analyses of variance, both species composition and plant traits led to a similar identification of the biogeomorphological and the ecological successional trajectories. Nevertheless, the trait approach was less influenced by local and regional bioclimatic, hydrogeomorphological, and anthropogenic settings and thus produced a more comprehensive and general classification of the biogeomorphological and ecological phases of the FBS model. A lower than expected contrast between the four sites was found, because neither species composition nor plant traits could entirely characterize distinct successional trajectories occurring in our reference or altered sites. Furthermore, our results contributed to a better understanding of the multiple successional trajectories that can occur in midlatitude river corridors. It also showed that relating plant traits to their effects on fluvial landform dynamics remains a core challenge in explaining succession including feedback mechanisms between hydrology, morphodynamics, and vegetation dynamics.French National Centre of Scientific Research; French Ministry of Ecology, Environment, Sustainable Development and PlanningTabacchi, E.; González, E.; Corenblit, D.; Garófano-Gómez, V.; Planty-Tabacchi, A.; Steiger, J. (2019). Species composition and plant traits: Characterization of the biogeomorphological succession within contrasting river corridors. River Research and Applications. 35(8):1228-1240. https://doi.org/10.1002/rra.35111228124035